Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24
How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - 17th Feb 24
Why Rising Shipping Costs Won't Cause Inflation - 17th Feb 24
Intensive 6 Week Stock Market Elliott Wave Training Course - 17th Feb 24
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend - 17th Feb 24
GameStop (GME): 88% Shellacking Yet No Lesson Learned - 17th Feb 24
Nick Millican Explains Real Estate Investment in a Changing World - 17th Feb 24
US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 7th Feb 24
Stocks Bull Market Commands It All For Now - 7th Feb 24
Financial Markets Narrative Nonsense - 7th Feb 24
Gold Price Long-Term Outlook Could Not Look Better - 7th Feb 24
Stock Market QE4EVER - 7th Feb 24
Learn How to Accumulate and Distribute (Trim) Stock Positions to Maximise Profits - Investing 101 - 5th Feb 24
US Exponential Budget Deficit - 5th Feb 24
Gold Tipping Points That Investors Shouldn’t Miss - 5th Feb 24
Banking Crisis Quietly Brewing - 5th Feb 24
Stock Market Major Market lows by Calendar Month - 4th Feb 24
Gold Price’s Rally is Normal, but Is It Really Bullish? - 4th Feb 24
More Problems in US Regional Banking System: Where There's Fire There's Smoke - 4th Feb 24
New Hints of US Election Year Market Interventions & Turmoil - 4th Feb 24
Watch Consumer Spending to Know When the Fed Will Cut Interest Rates - 4th Feb 24
Blue Skies Ahead As Stock Market Is Expected To Continue Much Higher - 31st Jan 24
What the Stock Market "Fear Index" VIX May Be Signaling - 31st Jan 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast Review - 31st Jan 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Continues Counter Trend On Cue...

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Oct 21, 2014 - 11:41 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


I thought that we would move higher off the 10% move lower on the S&P 500, with a retrace to around the gap at 1928, or thereabouts. There, of course, can be no exact number, but my feeling was we'd get to 1928, or so, and, thus far, we're making our way up there nicely, but not easily. It shouldn't be easy, and it's not, but, thus far, it is playing out as expected. Of course, we could go somewhat higher or lower than my target. It's just that you have the confluence of gap, moving average, and a 50% retrace, all coming together at that approximate level. When a market wants to do something, it's very hard to deny it. For instance, there was absolutely terrible news from market and economic leader International Business Machines Corporation (IBM).

They actually paid someone else 1.5 billion dollars just to take their semiconductor business off their hands. The stock was absolutely crushed, yet, only the Dow was affected in an adverse way relative to all the other major indexes. A week ago this news would have totally crushed the indexes across the board. The market is a game, and you try to figure out what it wants to do, because if you can figure that out, no news can really affect it unless it's something catastrophic. IBM had every chance to destroy the rally off the lows, and it couldn't do it, so it shows this is really a ridiculous game. News one day can crush a market, while the same news a day or two different can cause the market to laugh it off. It's about recognizing where you're at in the maze. For now, the market continues its counter trend move off the S&P 500 1820 lows, with my target remaining around 1928. Nothing is guaranteed, and the market will need Apple Inc. (AAPL) to help out this evening. We shall see what they bring to the table.

Remember this, the market can fool you in a heartbeat. When you think one thing is destined to happen it can throw you off course in a moment's time. Never think only one way. Learn to adapt and adjust as you go along day to day. While it's my belief we'll see 1928 to 1949 on this move, closer to 1928, but 1949 is the 50-day exponential moving average, and that is never out of play, the market doesn't have to get there. There are no rules. Just your best judgment based on what's presented to you on those charts. Also, it's not impossible that the market keeps going higher than we think simply because that, too, would be very unexpected. See something and play.

In other words, if we get to the 20's, gap or 50's, you'll need to see a strong reversal stick before thin king about taking on anything to the short side. There are so many unknowns such as what may happen from the Fed out of nowhere, because she panics based on price action. Never think you're that smart or above the game. Don't get emotionally tied in to only one thought process. That's how the majority get burned. No adaptation. The market will make you regret that thinking all too often, so please know that my thinking always has other possibilities I may not express in the moment. I won't front run. If and when I see the proper topping stick I will strongly consider shorting an ETF. Never a stock. Only an ETF. That all said, we see what AAPL brings to the table later this evening and how the market reacts to it. Keep an open mind at all times.



Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to!

© 2014

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

© 2005-2022 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in