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Gold Conventional Wisdom vs Elliott Wave Pattern

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015 Mar 03, 2015 - 01:36 PM GMT

By: EWI

Commodities

Editor's note: This article is excerpted from "The State of the Global Markets 2015 Edition," a comprehensive report by Elliott Wave International, the world's largest independent market-forecasting firm (data through December 2014). You can download the full, 53-page report here -- 100% free.

Gold has rallied since the EWT/EWFF Interim Report of November 11 forecast a near-term bullish juncture. The report included an AP story that cited metals’ experts who trashed gold’s prospects. Since then, we’ve been bowled over by the number of similar stories, each one more pessimistic toward gold than the last.


There’s not enough space to publish all of them, but the collection shown above captures the best of the bleak sentiment. It’s a stunning reversal from the ebullience that surrounded gold’s peak in September 2011 and is consistent with the rally potential described in the Interim Report.

This week was particularly volatile for gold. On Sunday, November 30, Swiss citizens rejected a law that would have required the Swiss National Bank to hold more of its reserves in gold. Conventional wisdom held that prices would plunge on the news. Gold spiked down to $1146.57 on the voting results Sunday night but then surged nearly $75 on Monday.

Second-wave lows are often attended by news that seems strongly bearish (see text, p.79), yet prices resist making new lows. Our forecast for a countertrend advance remains intact. The graph in the Interim Report shows gold’s wave structure. If prices decline below the November 7 low at $1131.85, it means the final subwave down is not yet complete.

Silver was even more volatile than gold this week. Prices dropped to $14.49 on Sunday night and then surged to $16.84 on Monday, a 16% low-to-high range in less than.....

Editor's note: This article is excerpted from "The State of the Global Markets 2015 Edition," a comprehensive report by Elliott Wave International, the world's largest independent market-forecasting firm. For a limited time, you can download the full report, for free, and use its year-in-preview insights to prepare, survive and prosper through the global investment landscape of 2015 and beyond. Download the full, 53-page report here -- it's free.

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.


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