Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
This Is Your Last Chance to Dump Netflix Stock - 19th July 19
Gold and US Stock Mid Term Election and Decade Cycles - 19th July 19
Precious Metals Big Picture, as Silver Gets on its Horse - 19th July 19
This Technology Everyone Laughed Off Is Quietly Changing the World - 19th July 19
Green Tech Stocks To Watch - 19th July 19
Double Top In Transportation and Metals Breakout Are Key Stock Market Topping Signals - 18th July 19
AI Machine Learning PC Custom Build Specs for £2,500 - Scan Computers 3SX - 18th July 19
The Best “Pick-and-Shovel” Play for the Online Grocery Boom - 18th July 19
Is the Stock Market Rally Floating on Thin Air? - 18th July 19
Biotech Stocks With Near Term Catalysts - 18th July 19
SPX Consolidating, GBP and CAD Could be in Focus - 18th July 19
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis - 17th July 19
Financial Crisis Stocks Bear Market Is Scary Close - 17th July 19
Want to See What's Next for the US Economy? Try This. - 17th July 19
What to do if You Blow the Trading Account - 17th July 19
Bitcoin Is Far Too Risky for Most Investors - 17th July 19
Core Inflation Rises but Fed Is Going to Cut Rates. Will Gold Gain? - 17th July 19
Boost your Trading Results - FREE eBook - 17th July 19
This Needs To Happen Before Silver Really Takes Off - 17th July 19
NASDAQ Should Reach 8031 Before Topping - 17th July 19
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator - 16th July 19
Could Trump Really Win the 2020 US Presidential Election? - 16th July 19
Gold Stocks Forming Bullish Consolidation - 16th July 19
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like 1995 or 2007? - 16th July 19
Red Rock Entertainment Investments: Around the world in a day with Supreme Jets - 16th July 19
Silver Has Already Gone from Weak to Strong Hands - 15th July 19
Top Equity Mutual Funds That Offer Best Returns - 15th July 19
Gold’s Breakout And The US Dollar - 15th July 19
Financial Markets, Iran, U.S. Global Hegemony - 15th July 19
U.S Bond Yields Point to a 40% Rise in SPX - 15th July 19
Corporate Earnings may Surprise the Stock Market – Watch Out! - 15th July 19
Stock Market Interest Rate Cut Prevails - 15th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State July 2019 Video - 15th July 19
Why Summer is the Best Time to be in the Entertainment Industry - 15th July 19
Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks - 14th July 19
Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold - 14th July 19
The Problem with Keynesian Economics - 14th July 19
Stocks Market Investors Worried About the Fed? Don't Be -- Here's Why - 13th July 19
Could Gold Launch Into A Parabolic Upside Rally? - 13th July 19
Stock Market SPX and Dow in BREAKOUT but this is the worrying part - 13th July 19
Key Stage 2 SATS Tests Results Grades and Scores GDS, EXS, WTS Explained - 13th July 19
INTEL Stock Investing in Qubits and AI Neural Network Processors - Video - 12th July 19
Gold Price Selloff Risk High - 12th July 19
State of the US Economy as Laffer Gets Laughable - 12th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State - 12th July 19
Stock Market Major Index Top In 3 to 5 Weeks? - 11th July 19
Platinum Price vs Gold Price - 11th July 19
What This Centi-Billionaire Fashion Magnate Can Teach You About Investing - 11th July 19
Stock Market Fundamentals are Weakening: 3000 on SPX Means Nothing - 11th July 19
This Tobacco Stock Is a Big Winner from E-Cigarette Bans - 11th July 19
Investing in Life Extending Pharma Stocks - 11th July 19
How to Pay for It All: An Option the Presidential Candidates Missed - 11th July 19
Mining Stocks Flash Powerful Signal for Gold and Silver Markets - 11th July 19
5 Surefire Ways to Get More Viewers for Your Video Series - 11th July 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Global Stock Market, Commodities Group Analysis

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 May 19, 2015 - 02:23 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

We continue the International indices update with the European indices that made bear market lows in 2012. These three indices were the most severely impacted by the European debt crisis of 2011/2012. While most of Europe was bottoming in 2009, with the US, these three indices only made wave A lows. Then after a B wave rally into 2009/2010 then declined again into 2012 to end their bear markets.


iIBEX

Spain’s IBEX displays a generally choppy pattern since its 2012 low. We have a complex irregular flat for Major wave 2, a simple Major 4, then a Primary I high in early 2014. After that another complex irregular flat for Primary wave II. Since then, with the help of the ECB’s EQE, the IBEX has nearly risen back to its 2010 high, in a Major wave 1 of Primary III. A Major wave 2 correction is underway now. We estimate when this bull market completes the IBEX should be back to its 2007 all time high at 16,040.

iMIB

Italy’s MIB displays a less choppy Primary I pattern from its 2012 low. It also had an irregular Major wave 2, and simple Major wave 4. But its Major wave 5 subdivided into five Intermediate waves, before entering a complex Primary II during 2014. Since then its Major wave 1 of Primary III has also spiked higher, completed, and is now in Major wave 2. Unlike Spain its all time high was in 2000 at 51,300, and a second high in 2007 at 44,300. It is still quite a way from even that secondary high. We estimate, however, the 2007 high could be a good target for the current bull market.

iATG

Greece’s ATG also displays a somewhat choppy pattern from its 2012 low. Its Major wave 2 was a large irregular flat, and oddly its Major wave 4 was a smaller irregular flat. Since there is very little alternation between waves 2 and 4 this entire rise might be considered corrective. From the early-2014 high, we labeled Primary I, there has been steady series of declining a-b-c’s, with a potential Primary II low in place. Since Greece has not benefitted from the ECB’s EQE, due to its economic and debt problems. We are less convinced, than at the beginning of the year, that this labeling is correct. With the ATG currently selling at about 10% of its all time high in 2000 at 7420, we prefer to wait until their debt situation is resolved. It appears, from our perspective, their best option is to leave the Euro, but remain in the EU. This would give them control of their own currency, like England and Switzerland, and remain part of the European union.

iTSX

Canada’s TSX is part of what we consider the commodity equity group. This also includes Brazil and Russia. While all three are very sensitive to commodity prices Canada has a fairly extensive banking system that helps offset some of the cyclicality of commodities. The TSX bear market bottomed in 2009, had Primary waves I and II in 2011, and has been in Primary III since then. Its Primary III pattern was also a bit choppy until mid-2013, when it started impulsing higher. It currently appears to be in Intermediate wave iii of Major wave 5. However, just like the FTSE, the current uptrend may only be a b wave of a complex Intermediate wave ii. We could project a high of about 17,600 for Primary III, where III equals I.

iBVSP

Brazil’s BVSP has had quite a volatile run since its all time high at 73,900 in 2007. A commodity bear market, political scandals and currency gyrations have contributed to this volatility. After making a bear market low in 2008 the BVSP completed a Primary wave I in 2010. Then it went into a four year bear market, which appears to have bottomed in early-2014. Since that low it has had a very strong Major wave 1, a huge retracement for Major wave 2, and since early-2015 a big rally to start Major wave 3. The current uptrend may only be Intermediate wave i of Major 3. Should our count be correct the BVSP should easily exceed all time highs before Primary III ends.

iRTSI

Russia’s RTSI is an index that is quite levered to energy and geopolitical events. Unless one understands where it is in its long term trend, investing in it is much akin to playing Russian roulette. When one compares this chart to Crude oil they look quite similar. Except the RTSI rose from about 40 in 1998 to 2500 by 2008, while Crude rose from $10 to $150 during the same period. After that all time high at 2500 in 2008, the RTSI dropped to around 500 by 2009. That low appears to be only part of a large ongoing bear market. Then the RTSI rallied, in an a-b-c, to 2100 by 2011 to complete a Cycle B wave. After that it plunged again, in an a-b-c, to the recent low near 700. We are labeling this entire decline from 2011 as Primary waves A-B-C. Since that low we are now anticipating a choppy X wave advance, just like Crude, for the next couple of years. After that completes we expect, eventually, a revisit to the 2014 low, and even the 2009 low, and lower, before this multi-year bear market concludes. This is a very risky index for the average investor.

You can follow all the International indices on pages 5 – 8 using this link: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp/5

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2015 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules