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Stock Market Bullish Pattern Still With Us....Greece Still With Us As Well.....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Jun 23, 2015 - 08:37 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


The S&P 500 bulls had their hopes lit up this morning. Actually, for those who follow these things, those hopes were lit up last night as soon as the futures came out. They were flying up pretty nicely giving the bulls visions of saying so long to S&P 500 2134. Those futures went higher still as night progressed but fell some before the open. With the close on the S&P 500 at 2110 Friday, there was a lot of work for the bulls to do to get it over 2134. We came within a few points of that, only to see it back off some as the day progressed. Another good old college try that just didn't happen. An up-day, but not a breakout day, so there's still not much to get overly pumped up about, even though other areas are trying to break out, such as the small and mid-cap stocks.

The bears are trying to prevent the market from breaking out across the board. It seems as if they're always fighting to hold breakouts. It has not been easy to be a bear, but they have done nothing more than hold the market in a long-term, bullish-flag that has also frustrated the bulls at times, but it has to be more frustrating as a bear. If the bulls can take out 2134, which would be a triple top, the bears will be forced to cover, causing the classic short-squeeze, which can shoot markets higher in a hurry. So today was good for the bulls, but it wasn't great. The bears can breathe a sigh of relief a bit, but in the end, the patterns remain solidly bullish overall. So we shall see if the market can allow the S&P 500 to join those small and mid-cap stocks on a breakout sooner than later.

So why didn't the market make the move today is what people are trying to figure out. I think the answer to that one is incredibly simple to understand. Greece! Too much uncertainty. Will it get bailed out? Will it work with the Euro zone and make the necessary compromises? The deadline for their bundled payment for all of June is merely eight days away on June 30th. Getting a bit too close for comfort. The beads of sweat are popping up. The market won't be happy short-term, if they actually do default. The financial stocks would take the biggest short-term hit, but I do believe the market would recover in short order, if default does indeed becomes a reality.

I can't tell you if the default will take place before the deadline. Will they play the game of you blink first? Who knows, but over time I do think they'll find a solution of some type that will be acceptable to both sides. Both sides will likely have to make concessions, although initially no one wants to do so. Sooner or later they will do what's necessary. All of this said, we have only eight days to go. There will, of course, be the usual number of rumors that go flying about from very unreliable sources, causing short-term spikes both ways. Keep in mind we could see some strong swings, so be careful not to overdo it until we get some real clarity. Some scratch in the game makes sense to be sure, but don't get too aggressive. Do what feels right to you, of course.

Waiting for a market to make a move that most have been waiting for since late December of last year is certainly boring. Both sides have felt the frustrations over and over again. Try to not let the emotion of this market get the best of you. 2040 remains massive, critical support on the S&P 500. 2134 is the double-top. For now the bulls need to blast through with force. Stay in the game, but do so with the knowledge that, until you break one way or the other, you should have lower expectations.

Sadly, it's still a day at a time.



Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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© 2015

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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