Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

USD Daily, Weekly, Monthly & Conclusions

Currencies / US Dollar Jun 26, 2015 - 02:29 PM GMT

By: Gary_Tanashian

Currencies

USD has been in correction since the hysterical March top.  The daily chart shows a series of lower highs and lower lows that was interrupted last week when USD failed to make a lower low, Hammered and bounced… right to the EMA and SMA 50’s.

So we remain on watch for a) a higher high or b) a lower low.  It’s very simple.  As it stands, the near-term is bearish until it proves bullish, not the other way around.  That is because the existing trend is down (AROON, bottom Panel).


USD weekly is interesting as its price remains above initial support, it’s oscillators are still positive, but it is forming an ugly looking pattern with a target of 85, to be activated if the support area around 93 fails.

USD monthly shows the 3 support levels that can contain Uncle Buck’s correction.  So again, the ugly weekly pattern is key because if current support is lost, the buck is probably going to eventually work its way down to 85 based on pattern measurement.

Note however, the moving averages (EMA’s 20 & 40) that have crossed for the first definitive bull signal since they crossed down in 2003.  Such a signal is not likely to be undone any time soon and so it is likely that USD is in a cyclical bull market.

Bottom Line

USD daily is in a downtrend but is bouncing.  A higher high to May would put it back on a bullish path.  A lower low to June would break the weekly chart’s neckline support.

This in turn would activate a measured target of 85, which would put a big bounce in the step of the beaten down commodity sector and general ‘inflation trade’, including precious metals* and certain US and global markets that benefit from a weaker dollar (to varying degrees).

On the big picture (monthly), Uncle Buck is still bullish.  A hit of 85 down the road would be a ‘buy’ on USD, which would mean a ‘sell’ on commodities, certain global markets and the whole constellation of items that are generally anti-USD.  But that could come after a cyclical bounce (and an extended trade) in the anti-USD stuff that could fool people into thinking the commodity bull has resumed.

The daily chart is the gatekeeper for all of this, so we should wait for its signal.

* As always, we note that the best scenario for a real bull market in the gold stock sector is economic contraction and gold’s out performance to commodities.  So the dynamics of any such inflation trade would have to be watched closely to determine whether the gold sector would be a ‘sell’ on the rally or whether it is at the beginning of a new bull market.  The gold stock sector is very capable of doing well on the big picture with a strong USD, which is just what USD’s big picture view happens to be.

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates (including Key ETF charts) and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com.

By Gary Tanashian

http://biiwii.com

© 2015 Copyright  Gary Tanashian - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Gary Tanashian Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in