Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
AI Tech Stocks State Going into the CRASH and Capitalising on the Metaverse - 25th Jan 22
Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? - 25th Jan 22
Why Gold’s Latest Rally Is Nothing to Get Excited About - 25th Jan 22
Gold Slides and Rebounds in 2022 - 25th Jan 22
Gold; a stellar picture - 25th Jan 22
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Empire Fed, Retail Sales, Industrial Production All Miss

Economics / US Economy Sep 15, 2015 - 05:31 PM GMT

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Economics

A trifecta of misses in today's US economic releases may not be a game-changer in Thursday's Fed decision because the game is already "unchanged". The September Empire Fed survey posted another double digit decline to remain at 6-year lows, August retail sales rose 0.3% to miss expectations for the sixth consecutive month and industrial production fell 0.4% in August to post seven declines over the past eight months--the worst pattern since 2008-9.


Empire Fed, Retail Sales, Industrial Production all miss - Empire Philly Ism Sep 15

On the bright side, core retail sales (excluding autos, gas and building materials), rose along upward revisions to the prior two months. In the Fed's Empire survey, the employment component turned negative to 6.2 from 1.8, as did the average workweek plunging 10.3 from -1.8. US industrial production was battered by the usual strong US dollar story and weak exports. Manufacturing dropped 0.5%, mining fell 0.6% and utilities were up 0.6%.

Bearish Argument

The bearish side may argue against the robust retail sales by indicating the report was too early to take into consideration the slump in equities, materializing in the 2nd half of the month. The argument becomes especially potent following Friday's release of the preliminary report of the September University of Michigan Sentiment Survey, showing the biggest one-month plunge since late 2012. Thus, the release of US September retail sales, due in mid-October (2 weeks before the FOMC) could potentially disappoint.

Bullish Argument

A more optimistic interpretation of the figures could point to the fact that the gloomy surveys in the chart above focus on manufacturing, which has been pummelled by the disinflationary challenges of a strengthening US dollar and the eroding global supply change. Not only manufacturing accounts for shrinking part of the overall US economy, but also inflation is more positive in the services sector.

This leaves us with tomorrow's release of US August CPI for and Thursday's September Philly Fed survey as the remaining last figures prior to the Fed decision. Fed watchers are already hedging themselves in their prediction for the big event, indicating a hawkish statement/forecasts accompanying an unchanged announcement on rates, while others predict a dovish statement/forecasts to accompany a rate hike. While we lean towards expecting no change this week, markets have already made up their mind in pursuing further downside for the month.

For more frequent FX & Commodity calls & analysis, follow me on Twitter Twitter.com/alaidi

By Ashraf Laidi
AshrafLaidi.com

Ashraf Laidi CEO of Intermarket Strategy and is the author of "Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis: How to Profit from the Shifting Currents in Global Markets" Wiley Trading.

This publication is intended to be used for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Copyright © 2015 Ashraf Laidi

Ashraf Laidi Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in