Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

October Stocks Bear Market and Crash Killer

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Oct 11, 2015 - 04:35 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

We are now well into October, which is THE month for stock market doom and gloom to prevail. This is the month when the perma stock market crash proponents are at their most vocal when they dust down and repost ancient charts of previous crashes such as 1929 and 1987 and more recently 2008, to once more proclaim that history is about to repeat and a stock market crash is imminent. Though this time its even worse than usual because even those who may have been 'mostly' bullish threw in the towel several weeks ago to at least conclude that stocks bear market had begun.


A quick google of 'bear market' reveals a series of articles by for instance MoneyMorning.com of increasing bear market certainty, in fact you can't get much more certain than 99.7% that stocks were now in a bear market -

Is This a Bear Market?

It actually indicates there's a 99.7% chance we're already in a bear market.

Or more recently - Are Global Stock Markets Pointing to a Bear Market?

And I could continue, on and on and one with a long list of the former mostly bullish 'analysts' who apparently now think we are in a bear market.

So again it's important to note that recent bearishness goes well beyond the usual suspects, counting even the usually bullish amongst their number.

So exactly how has this new stocks bear market been proceeding during the past month or so? Well the Dow's latest close of 17,084 is at its highest for the past 6 weeks!

Now forgive my ignorance but aren't stocks supposed to be falling during a bear market? Rising stocks, let alone failure of the always imminent stock market crash is not bearish price action that supports such widespread expectations.

Stock Market Trend Forecast Into End Dec 2015

My Mid September update of the state of the 6 year long stocks bull market series concluded in a detailed trend forecast for the Dow that after a brief rally into Mid September would continue its correction into October so as to set the scene for the Dow to rally by about 20% to over 18000 before the end of this year.

13 Sep 2015 - Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast for September to December 2015

My final conclusion is for continuing weakness that will result in a volatile trading range with a probable re-test of the recent low of 15,370 by Mid October that will set the scene for a strong rally into the end of the year that could see the Dow trade above 18,000 before targeting a gain for a seventh year in a row at above 17,823 as illustrated below:

Whilst the highly vocal bears may point to bearish chart patterns such as the 'head and shoulders, knees and toes' pattern. Instead it looks like the stock market is determined to severely punish the bearish consensus by resuming its bull market a few weeks earlier than even I had envisaged. Still it would have been better for the stock market to have suckered in a greater number of bears before pulling the noose tight around their necks, or perhaps given the earlier illustration the stock market HAD succeeded in doing so, it's just that in my calm corner of the market universe I had not fully appreciate just how bearish the majority had become.

So why am calm and relaxed whilst most others are running around like demented rabbits?

Look it's simple, very simple, stocks are NOT in a bubble, until stocks reach the bubble stage then they are unlikely to resolve into a bear market, having traded stocks for over 30 years, I KNOW what a real bubble looks like! In fact the bubble top may turn out to be another 4 or 5 years away! Imagine that a bull market that continues for another 4 or 5 years! IMAGINE IT, now imagine the perma bear crap that is going to flow as stocks relentlessly climb higher, do you really want to miss another 5 year bull run? Yes there could be a shock event that could bring the bull market to a juddering halt, such as The United States electing another Idiot for President who perhaps starts another unwinnable war and leaves another crucible for global insatiability behind such as Iraq. So, no its not a done deal but probability continues to favour a continuation of the bull market trend.

The bottom line is that successful investing demands consistency. For instance I have been bullish on stocks since the birth of the bull market in March 2009 (15 Mar 2009 - Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470 ) and since which time my strategy has remained very, very simple and consistent as illustrated by hundreds of articles and several stocks ebook's (FREE DOWNLOAD) which is that the "greater the deviation from the bull market peak then the greater the buying opportunity presented". In which case given the recent deviation from its high of 15%, you have just had one of those great buying opportunity moments that it clearly looks like most will have MISSED due to what? Falling prey to a financial media sales industry that in reality amounts to nothing more than 'reeds blowing in the wind'.

Lately I have been busy revisiting the REAL MEGA-TREND, which will be the focus of my next in-depth analysis. What's the real mega-trend? We'll that would be the progress of the Genus Homo (humans) where we are trending from, stand today are going to next, so ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get this in your email in box within a few days time.

For a taster see my recent video which covered the initial spark that set in motion the Genus Homo trend some 2.5 million years ago.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for ongoing in-depth analysis and concluding detailed trend forecasts that include the following planned newsletters -

  • Today's New Homo Sapien Species
  • 1987 - How to Trade a Stock Market Crash
  • US Dollar Trend Forecast Update 2015
  • Islam 3.0
  • US House Prices Next 3 Year Forecast

Also subscribe to our Youtube channel for notification of video releases and for our new series on the 'The Illusion of Democracy and Freedom', that seeks to answer questions such as 'Did God Create the Universe?' and how to 'Attain Freedom' as well as a stream of mega long term 'Future Trend Forecasts'.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in