Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Are UK Savings Interest Rates Finally Starting to Rise? Best Cash ISA 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Inflation Tsunami - Supermarkets, Retail Sector Crisis 2017, EU Suicide and Burning Stocks - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Big Moves in the World Stock Markets - Big Bases - Rambus_Chartology
4.The Next Financial Implosion Is Not Going To Be About The Banks! - Gordon_T_Long
5.Why EU BrExit Single Market Access Hard line is European Union Committing Suicide - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Trump Ramps Up US Military Debt Spending In Preparations for China War - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Watch What Happens When Silver Price Hits $26...  - MoneyMetals
8.Stock Market Fake Risk, Fake Return? Market Crash? - 2nd Mar 17 - Axel_Merk
9.Global Inflation Surges, Central Banks Losing Control and Triggered the Wage Price Spiral? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Why Gold Will Boom In 2017 - James Burgess
Last 7 days
Top Ten US Dollar Risks - 27th Mar 17
The Popularity of Gambling and Investing Amongst Students - 27th Mar 17
Is Political Betting on the Rise? - 27th Mar 17
US Stock Market Consolidation Time - 27th Mar 17
Russia Crisis - Maps That Signal Growing Instability and Unrest - 27th Mar 17
Goldman Sachs Backing A Copper Boom In 2017 - 27th Mar 17
Foundation – Fall Of The American Galactic Empire - 27th Mar 17
Stock Market More Correction Ahead - 27th Mar 17
US Dollar Inflection Point - 27th Mar 17
Political Week Presurres US Stock Market - 25th Mar 17
London Terror Attack Red Herring, Real Issue is Age of Reason vs Religion - 25th Mar 17
Will Washington Risk WW3 to Block an Emerging EU-Russia Superstate - 25th Mar 17
Unaccountable Military Industrial Complex Is Destroying America and the Rest Of The World Too - 25th Mar 17
Silver Mining Stock Fundamentals - 24th Mar 17
A Walk Down the Dark Road of Bad Government - 24th Mar 17
Is Stock Market Flash Crash Postponed Until Monday? - 24th Mar 17
Stock Market Bubble and Gold - 24th Mar 17
Maps Of Past Empires That Can Tell Us About The Future - 24th Mar 17
SNP Independent Scotland's Destiny With Economic Catastrophe, the English Subsidy - IndyRef2 - 24th Mar 17
Stock Market VIX Cycles Set To Explode March/April 2017 – Part II - 23rd Mar 17
Is Now a Good Time to Invest in the US Housing Market? - 23rd Mar 17
The Stock Market Is a Present-Day Version of Pavlov’s Dog - 23rd Mar 17
US Budget - There’s Almost Nothing Left To Cut - 23rd Mar 17
Stock Market Upward Reversal Or Just Quick Rebound Before Another Leg Down? - 23rd Mar 17
Trends to Look Out For as a Modern-day Landlord - 23rd Mar 17
Here’s Why Interstate Health Insurance Won’t Fix Obamacare / Trumpcare - 23rd Mar 17
China’s Biggest Limitations Determine the Future of East Asia - 23rd Mar 17
This is About So Much More Than Trump and Brexit - 23rd Mar 17
Trump Stock Market Rally Over? 20% Bear Drop By Mid Summer? - 22nd Mar 17
Trump Added $3 Trillion in Wealth to Stock Market Participants - 22nd Mar 17
What's Next for the US Dollar, Gold and Stocks? - 22nd Mar 17
MSM Bond Market Full Nonsense Mode as ‘Trump Trades’ Unwind on Schedule - 22nd Mar 17
Peak Gold – Biggest Gold Story Not Being Reported - 22nd Mar 17
Return of Sovereign France, Europe’s Changing Landscape - 22nd Mar 17
Trump Stocks Bull Market Rolling Over? You Were Warned! - 22nd Mar 17
Stock Market Charts That Scream “This Is It” - Here’s What to Do - 22nd Mar 17
Raising the Minimum Wage Is a Jobs Killing Move - 22nd Mar 17
Potential Bottoming Patterns in Gold and Silver Precious Metals Stocks Complex... - 22nd Mar 17
UK Stagflation, Soaring Inflation CPI 2.3%, RPI 3.2%, Real 4.4% - 21st Mar 17
The Demise of the Gold and Silver Bull Run is Greatly Exaggerated - 21st Mar 17
USD Decline Continues, Pull SPX Down as well? - 21st Mar 17
Trump Watershed Budget - 21st Mar 17
How do Client Acquisition Offers Affect Businesses? - 21st Mar 17
Physical Metals Demand Plus Manipulation Suits Will Break Paper Market - 20th Mar 17
Stock Market Uncertainty Following Interest Rate Increase - Will Uptrend Continue? - 20th Mar 17
Precious Metals : Who’s in Charge ? - 20th Mar 17
Stock Market Correction Continues - 20th Mar 17
Why The Status Quo Is Under Increasing Attack By 'Populist People Power' - 20th Mar 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Elliott Wave Trading

The Next Financial Crisis Has Begun

Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016 Jan 20, 2016 - 06:49 PM GMT

By: Graham_Summers

Stock-Markets

Last year we predicted that the world had reached peak centralization and that going forward things would begin to fracture.

What is centralization?

Centralization is the process by which the world grows increasingly centralized, relying on Centralized organizations (Central Banks, sovereign governments, etc.) to determine the direction of capital and focus.


From an investment perspective, from 2008 to mid-2014, the primary driving force for the markets was Central Banks. In the US, the S&P 500 tracked the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet closely.

However, once the US Dollar carry trade began to blow up in mid-2014, this period ended. From that point onwards, the US Dollar was the driving force in the financial system.

How is this possible?

The US Dollar carry trade is $9 trillion in size. To put this in perspective, it is as large as the economies of Japan and Germany combined.

If you’re unfamiliar with the concept of a carry trade, it occurs when you borrow in one currency, usually at a very low interest rate, and then invest the money in another security, whether it be a bond, stock or what have you, that is denominated in another currency.

Everyone from currency traders to emerging market corporations were doing this from 2008 onwards. Emerging Market corporations alone have over $3 trillion in US Dollar dominated bonds outstanding. It those bonds were a country it would be the fifth largest in the world.

Now, a carry trade only works if the currency you borrow stays flat or falls in value. If the currency begins to rally, you blow up VERY quickly as the debt (the money you borrowed) quickly becomes more expensive or less serviceable.

As a result of this, when a carry trade begins to blow up, a feedback loop quickly hits as those who borrowed in the original currency either A) default B) restructure or C) return the money, forcing the currency even higher which triggers more defaults, restructuring and margin calls.

This is why when the US Dollar began to rally in mid-2014, it went nearly vertical.

The first wave of the US Dollar carry trade blowing up crushed commodities and the emerging markets that rely on them for growth. I’m talking about Brazil, Russia, and the like.

However, it is the second wave that will be even more damaging. That wave began last year in August when China was forced to devalue the Yuan against the US Dollar. At that point the US Dollar bull market was no longer forcing individual asset classes to collapse… it was imploding one of the largest economies on the planet.

This crisis has only just begun.

The 1997 Asian Crisis was triggered by Thailand devaluing the baht. Thailand’s economy is the 30th largest in the world. And it nearly blew up all of Asia.

China, by way of contrast, is either the second or third largest economy in the world depending on how you measure it. And it is now actively devaluing the Yuan. Just based on this alone, you can expect this crisis to be significantly larger than the 1997 Asian Crisis.

However, this is just China. Remember there are $9 trillion in US Dollars floating around in various carry trades. So China’s devaluation will be just the tip of the iceberg as every fiat currency in the world derives a portion of its value based on where the US Dollar trades. What’s happening in China will be rippling throughout the system taking down entire countries/ currencies/ and stock markets.

Another Crisis is coming. Smart investors are preparing now.

If you’re an investor who wants to increase your wealth dramatically, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisoryis a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

To whit, we just closed out two new double digit winners yesterday, bringing us to 40 straight winning trades over the last 12 months.

That correct, during the last year, we’ve not closed a SINGLE LOSER.

And if you go back further, 46 of our last 47 trades have made money.

In fact, I’m so confident in my ability to pick winning investments that I’ll give you 30 days to try out Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 CENTS.

During that time, you’ll receive over 50 pages of content… along with investment ideas that will help make you money… ideas you won’t hear about anywhere else.

If you have not seen significant returns from Private Wealth Advisory during those 30 day, just drop us a line and we’ll cancel your subscription with no additional charges.

All the reports you download are yours to keep, free of charge.

To take out a $0.98, 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Phoenix Capital Research

http://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com

Graham also writes Private Wealth Advisory, a monthly investment advisory focusing on the most lucrative investment opportunities the financial markets have to offer. Graham understands the big picture from both a macro-economic and capital in/outflow perspective. He translates his understanding into finding trends and undervalued investment opportunities months before the markets catch on: the Private Wealth Advisory portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 three of the last five years, including a 7% return in 2008 vs. a 37% loss for the S&P 500.

Previously, Graham worked as a Senior Financial Analyst covering global markets for several investment firms in the Mid-Atlantic region. He’s lived and performed research in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the United States.

© 2015 Copyright Graham Summers - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Graham Summers Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife