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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Counter Trend Rally in a Stocks Bear Market, GDX Low Near?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Jan 25, 2016 - 01:57 AM GMT

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Stock-Markets

January 20th may have been an important intermediate bottom in the stock market, but the bear market is still growling. January 20th was exactly 100 trading days from the August 24th low. The 100 trading low has a variance of 15%. Oddly, the 16 TD low, which arrived on January 11 is still due in early February along with a Bradley turn (Feb 3-5). The next top of import is due January 25 with the moon in Leo/Virgo. It is also the 16 trading top +1 TD. Last moon cycles saw the market run down 8 TD's to the moon in Sag/Cap (due Feb 4th). January 26 and 27 have the moon in Virgo, so at least those days should be down. Feb 1 is another day which should be down based on the negative astros on Jan 29 and over the weekend.


The e-wave look is also irregular since Jan 13th and not impulsive at all, which means we may make new lows in early February (although this is not certain). I think the best we can hope for is a lot of chop going into early February and perhaps higher prices into the second week of February before retesting the lows late in the month and then a strong countertrend rally into early April. Keep in mind that these are countertrend rallies. I believe this is a bear market that has much further to go to the downside!

As far as GDX is concerned, I believe we are close to bottoming on the 20 week lows due next week. The chart below is the worst case scenario with a move to $11.18 by week's end, but I believe the best case scenario has GDX tagging near to $12.14 by Jan 27th.

S&P500 Index Daily Chart

Market Vectors Gold Miners Daily Chart

Our BluStar3XGold trading signals are up over 90% since August 19, 2015 and our BluStar3X trading signals are up over 80% since April 15, 2015!

Brad Gudgeon
Editor of The BluStar Market Timer

www.blustarmarkettimer.info

The BluStar Market Timer was rated #1 in the world by Timer Trac in 2014, competing with over 1600 market timers. This occurred despite what the author considered a very difficult year for him. Brad Gudgeon, editor and author of the BluStar Market Timer, is a market veteran of over 30 years. The website is www.blustarmarkettimer.info To view the details more clearly, you may visit our free chart look at www.blustarcharts.weebly.com Copyright 2015. All Rights Reserved

Copyright 2016, BluStar Market Timer.  All rights reserved.
Disclaimer:  The above information is not intended as investment advice.  Market timers can and do make mistakes.  The above analysis is believed to be reliable, but we cannot be responsible for losses should they occur as a result of using this information.  This article is intended for educational purposes only. Past performance is never a guarantee of future performance.

Brad Gudgeon Archive

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