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Stock Market Holding Up...Bears Simply Have Nothing.....Fed On Deck...

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Apr 26, 2016 - 04:46 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


The market tried once again to sell today, but again the selling was nothing to talk about. The market was down decently during the trading day, but the buyers, as usual, stepped back in with authority and kept the losses quite small. The market is trying to unwind overbought oscillators with the normal, no-price depreciation set-up, which is basically all we ever see. That's classic bull-market behavior. Seven year's worth for the most part. Nothing has changed. It really is the same old. In fact, this newsletter is the same old. There's never really anything new or interesting to talk about. Any time we try to swell, the buyers come in, etc. No sustained selling other than very brief periods for seven full years with no end on the horizon. Buyers are trained to step in and buy every time we sell some.

While we haven't really gone anywhere in two years we are doing the classic sideways action to unwind very long-term charts, or those monthly's, and the results are good in terms of unwinding. They're awful in terms of divergences, but that seems to be something the market has learned to ignore one hundred percent of the time. Negative divergences are becoming a buy signal. I say that only half joking. There seems to be absolutely nothing that can take this market down. If it exists, it's hiding itself well. There have been terrible earnings for the most part, yet the market yawns. Sorry bears. The bull market is here, and looks to be readying itself for the next major leg up in the coming weeks. It seems impossible based on the daily and monthly negative divergences, but price is suggesting the fed-market will be able to overcome it. Amazing, if not unbelievable.

So when are we likely to get the next leg up? We can look to about 2PM on Wednesday when the Ms Yellen announces their next dovish statement on rates, and the "whatever it takes" speech to keep the economy coming up. That means rates near zero for a very long time to come. The market response should be the usual yay, we love it. It's stunning to me how the market reacts to the same news every time it comes out as if it's surprised and shoots higher. If we break through 2116 and that looks inevitable, we should blast up to the old high at S&P 500 2134. Once above 2134, it's blue sky for the bulls and death for the bears.

While it's always possible that all the good news is in with Fed Yellen, it's unlikely. If she gives her usual statement of dovish behavior, and the market falls, then we have a change of trend in how the market is reacting to her. We always have to keep that possibility open as anything on this planet is possible. While it's extremely unlikely it's not impossible. In addition, while we can blast up from her speech on Wednesday, the market, when happy, and it is happy, usually moves higher the day prior to the speech, or at least hangs tough. There's usually very little down-side action the day before the fed talks. So we may have seen most of the selling we're going to see before breaking out. Smile everyone, we may be about to break out into the worst negative divergences I've ever seen. Always a first for everything.


Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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© 2016

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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