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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

EU Referendum: Have the Bookmakers Got it Wrong? LEAVE Opinion Polls Lead

ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum Jun 15, 2016 - 02:25 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

A string of recent opinion polls such as Opiniun giving LEAVE a 19 point lead or ORB's giving LEAVE a 10% lead are not being reflected by the bookmakers betting odds. And even if we ignore some of these more extreme polls because there is no way LEAVE is going to win by 19% or even 10%, then still as my recent analysis illustrates that LEAVE have been nudging into the lead which is just NOT being reflected by the betting that is still heavily skewed in favour of REMAIN.


For instance LEAVE are currently trading on BetFair at odds of 2.7. Which whilst having come down a greatly from last weeks 3.6 or a month ago's 4 and the peak of 6! Is still heavily skewed in favour of REMAIN which is trading at just 1.58.

Now compare this against my recent polls analysis that despite excluding the extreme polls nevertheless have LEAVE in a marginal poll lead of 51% against 49%.

Date LEAVE REMAIN Don't Know Pollster Method
13-Jun-16
49 44 7 ICM online
13-Jun-16 50 45 6 ICM phone
10-Jun-16 42 44 13 Opinium online
10-Jun-16 43 42 15 YouGov online
06-Jun-16 42 43 15 YouGov online
05-Jun-16 48 43 9 ICM online
03-Jun-16 41 43 14 Opinium online
03-Jun-16 45 41 15 YouGov online
29-May-16 47 44 9 ICM online
29-May-16
45 42 13 ICM phone
452 431
Average% 51% 49%

 

In comparison an average of the 10 polls a month ago (again ignoring those that gave more than a 10% lead) put REMAIN in the lead on 51% against 49% for LEAVE.

Date LEAVE REMAIN Don't Know Pollster Method
15-May-16 39 47 14 ICM phone
12-May-16 41 38 21 TNS online
08-May-16 46 44 10 ICM online
06-May-16 40 42 18 YouGov online
03-May-16 45 44 11 ICM online
29-Apr-16 41 42 17 Opinium online
29-Apr-16 46 43 11 ICM online
28-Apr-16 42 41 17 YouGov online
28-Apr-16 36 39 26 TNS online
26-Apr-16 38 45 17 Survation phone
414 425
Average% 49% 51%

Therefore with momentum clearly on LEAVE's side then this suggests that LEAVE's poll standing should continue to improve into voting day and thus implies the average of the polls by the 23rd of June should put LEAVE on about 52% against 48% for REMAIN.

Against this my forecast conclusion on the basis of the sum of year long analysis concluded that the most probable result is likely to be LEAVE winning on 51.3% against REMAIN on 48.7%

EU Referendum Forecast - 12th June 16

UK 2016 EU Referendum Forecast

The average of the last 6 polls has REMAIN in the lead on 51% against LEAVE on 49% (11th June). However the REMAIN lead is set against the big picture of momentum being on the side of LEAVE that appears to be ACCELERATING. For instance 3 weeks ago REMAIN were ahead on 54% to 46%, which was typical of the REMAINs lead since the start of 2016 that entered the new year on 56% against 44%.

However, if as I expect that the LEAVE campaign momentum can be maintained for the remaining 11 days then LEAVE should be able to just achieve a tight referendum victory. Therefore the sum of my year long analysis comprising well over 120 articles and over a dozen videos then my forecast conclusion is for a LEAVE victory of 51.3% to 48.7%, a winning margin of less than 2.7%.

But to achieve this victory all Brexiters need to further intensify their efforts because as things stand today (12th June) REMAIN is probably just marginally ahead with less than 1% between REMAIN and LEAVE on an estimated 50.4% REMAIN against 49.6% LEAVE, so there is still a lot of hard work to be done in these last few days do achieve a LEAVE Brexit outcome.

Booking Making Odds (BetFair)

Whilst the opinion polls have resolved to give LEAVE a small lead, the bookies such as Betfair have been consistently strongly favouring REMAIN, for instance Betfair is currently giving odds of 2.70 for LEAVE against 1.58 for REMAIN. Clearly either the polls are wrong or the bookie odds are wrong. In this respect as my own analysis has been leaning towards the polls being far closer to the more probable outcome than the bookmaker odds continue to present an opportunity for punters.

I have been tracking the Betfair EU Referendum prices for about a year now, during which time I have seen the LEAVE odds go from a high of 6 to the current low of 2.70 and where at about 4 a month ago.

BrExit Campaign

So with the polls tight, then this is NOT the time to slacken off as LEAVE are on the very edge of attaining victory which demands MAXIMUM EFFORTS during these last 9 days! In which respect having recognised just how critical the situation truly is, we have been doubling our efforts so as to do our best to assure a Brexit outcome by producing in-depth analysis, rebuttal articles of REMAIN propaganda and numerous videos, with a new one being released on a near daily basis:

You too can help achieve a LEAVE victory by supporting our BrExit campaign in this last push to secure Britain's future free of the emerging EU superstate.

Counting Down to Freedom - Support Our BrExit Campaign

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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