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Why 95% of Traders Fail

Final Opinion Poll Gives REMAIN 52% Lead, Bookmakers, Markets and Pollsters ALL Back REMAIN Win

ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum Jun 23, 2016 - 10:14 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

The final opinion poll of the EU Referendum campaign by YouGov was released at 10pm just as the polls closed and the counting began, putting REMAIN in a clear 4 point lead on 52% against LEAVE on 48%, which is what the story that the mainstream press is running with given that the first significant results won't be known for at least another 3 hours.


However, a momentum analysis of the opinion polls literally paints a picture of the polls really being too close to call effectively neither LEAVE or REMAIN having momentum on side going into voting day, flip flopping around the winning line on release of each new poll.

However, the opinion polls are just one aspect of the EU referendum results expectation spectrum as the following summery illustrates-

Financial Markets - REMAIN

Stocks and sterling have literally soared in advance of the voting day, effectively discounting a strong REMAIN victory,

Betting Markets - REMAIN

Similarly the bookmaker odds are discounting a large REMAIN victory, as evidenced by earlier today's Betfair exchange market odds of LEAVE on 7.1 against REMAIN on 1.1, which converts into an implied probability of 90% for a REMAIN win.

My Forecast - LEAVE

Against this is my forecast as of 12th of June, a conclusion based on year long analysis that includes more than 120 articles and more than a dozen videos for a LEAVE victory on 51.3% against REMAIN on 48.7% (12th June 16 - EU Referendum Forecast)

Therefore as things stand just after the polls have closed then on one side of the scale are the bookmakers, financial markets and pollsters all signaling a REMAIN outcome. Whilst tipped up in the air is my forecast for a LEAVE win.

We'll, we will likely find out in a few short hours time whether the political scales are about to violently swing in the direction of LEAVE or stay firmly tipped in REMAINs favour as the actual votes are counted.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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