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SPX at the Edge

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Aug 09, 2016 - 02:43 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket is only a point higher after a failed ramp attempt. A decline beneath yesterday’s low at 2177.85 breaks the first support line. The second is also at Short-term support at 2168.39. Both VIX and the Hi-Lo are far enough away from their triggers that it is likely that the second break may also correspond with their trigger levels.

Yesterday’s trading had the lowest volume of the year.


ZeroHedge reports, “S&P500 index futures were unchanged (up less than 0.1%) following another modest, low-volume levitation in European, Asian shares in a mostly eventless overnight session; oil comes off following gaining overnight with WTI trading just around $43.”

US Productivity plunged for the third consecutive quarter.

VIX is still within its Declining Wedge formation. It will take a rally above the upper trendline or a breakout above the Wave 4 high at 14.24 to get a change in signal.

TNX appears to have completed its Wave [b] retracement. It has a hair trigger at its 50-day Moving Average at 15.78 and the trendline is just beneath it at 15.60. This decline may signal money flowing out of equities into treasuries again.

ZeroHedge reports, “While most sellside strategists take the recent rebound in US Treasury yields as the latest confirmation that the global rates rally is on its last legs (even as corporate bond issuance is approaching never before seen records, as the global chase for yields comes to the US), one bank refuses to change its long-term forecast on the 10Y, and still sees the benchmark US security reaching 1.00% in the not too distant future.”

USD reversed fro, its trendline yesterday, signaling an end of its retracement. It may also be ready to decline to its Cycle Bottom support at 92.71 in Wave (iii).

The combination of a declining dollar and declining yields may propel the decline in SPX.

Regards,

Tony

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As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals.

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

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