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5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

Gordon Brown's Budget 2007 - Likely to be his Last and Green

Economics / UK Tax & Budget Mar 20, 2007 - 10:13 PM GMT

By: Shahla_Walayat

Economics

Gordon Brown will later today deliver his 11th and last budget, given that Tony Blair is expected to make way for Gordon Browns premiership within the next 3 months.

The budget is likely to adopt many green initiatives following the conversion of the conservative party from blue torch to green tree. The chancellor is expected to appeal to home owners by giving incentives to install energy efficient products and possibly even home power generators such as solar panels and wind generators. The chancellor is expected to hit gas guzzling vehicles by raising the annual duty on 4X4's to as high as £400.


With the next election some 2 years and the relative weak state of public finances, there are unlikely to be any significant giveaways in the budget. The expectation is for the chancellor to continue to raise 'stealth' taxes as the burden of taxation on the UK tax payers continues to rise to one of the highest levels in Europe.

The public sector is expected to receive further generous handouts to tackle problems in the NHS and to invest in the education system. Labour has year on year increased public spending by far more the inflation which has lead to the growth in the public sector in 10 years from a competitive 35% of GDP to one of the highest levels in europe approaching 46% of GDP.

Personal Allowances are expected to be raised in line with inflation, with little other change, other than to cut tax avoidance loopholes and the expected rises in duties on alcohol and tobacco.

For savers the key change will be the loss of distinction between Mini and Maxi ISA's. Also changes will allow cash to be moved from cash to shares ISa's, though not back to cash ISA's. However the limit on ISA's at £7000 has not changed since they were first introduced 10 years ago, with possible rumours that on their tenth anniversary the limits will be raised.

Even though earlier in the week, Andrew Turnbull, former senior civil servant at the Treasury from 1998 to 2002, referred to Gordon Brown as having "Stalinist ruthlessness". He will leave the office of Chancellor as one of the most successful chancellors in British history have resided over continuous quarter on quarter economic growth for 10 years.

 

By Shahla Walayat
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