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Why 95% of Traders Fail

Mike Pence Beats Tim Kaine to Win VP Debate Triggering Trump Bounce

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Oct 05, 2016 - 05:10 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

Donald Trump has been having a disastrous time following loss of the 1st Presidential debate to Hillary Clinton and then leak of his 1995 tax return as illustrated by the betting market. However, now there is sliver of hope for Trump's campaign as his running mate, Mike Pence beat Tim Kaine in the Vice Presidents debate as the post debate odds have marginally shifted in Trumps favour.

Trump could learn a lesson or two from Pence on how to win debates, which apparently is NOT by going on the defensive as Trump repeatedly did to salvos from Hillary but by just completely ignoring the attacks and instead go on the attack or try to win the audience by telling them what they wanted to hear. Though of course "Mr Know it All" Trump listens to NO ONE!


Whilst the opinion polls show little shift with Hillary on 45% with Trump on 41%. However, the betting markets such as betfair had witnessed a steady fall in the probability for a Trump election win. For instance just prior to the 1st Presidential debate Trump had rallied to his best standing of 2.88, immediately following the debate that had widened to 3.35, and peaking at 4.05 just before the VP debate which converts into just a 21% probability of winning the election, down from a peak of about 35%. Now the latest odds have marginally shifted in Trumps favour by falling to 3.90, so this could mark the turning point for Trump after a disastrous 10 days.

US Presidential Election 2016 Betfair Market

Date Time (BST) Hillary Trump Comments
25th Sept   1.58 3.05 Trending in Trumps favour
27th Sept 2am 1.57 2.88 Trump peaks just prior to the start of the 1st debate
27th Sept 4am 1.44 3.35 Just after the 1st debate confirming Trump lost.
30th Sept 3am 1.45 3.45 Odds continuing to move against Trump election win
30th Sept 9pm 1.39 3.75 Accelerating meltdown of Trump odds
1st Oct 2pm 1.37 3.85 Still little sign of Trump recovery
4th Oct 9pm 1.35 4.05 Trump continues losing trend
5th Oct 5am 1.36 3.90 Pence wins VP debate

My recent video analysis gave several suggestions of what Trump could do to reverse his losing position going into the second debate and where I warned of his Achilles heel being his tax returns and the Trump organisation that lacked financial transparency which if revealed could blow his chances of winning the election as illustrated by today's NYT story, as I am sure an army of journalists will now be intensifying their efforts to get their hands on more tax returns out of Trump Tower.

For the reality of what a Trump Presidency would look like see -

And as for my forecast for who most probably will win to become the next US President which is not based on the polls or bookie odds then watch:

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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