Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
The Gold Stocks Correction and What Lays Ahead - 19th Oct 19
Gold during Global Monetary Ease - 19th Oct 19
US Treasury Bonds Pause Near Resistance Before The Next Rally - 18th Oct 19
The Biggest Housing Boom in US History Has Just Begun - 18th Oct 19
British Pound Brexit Chaos GBP Trend Forecast - 18th Oct 19
Stocks Don’t Care About Trump Impeachment - 17th Oct 19
Currencies Show A Shift to Safety And Maturity – What Does It Mean? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Future Projected Cycles - 17th Oct 19
Weekly SPX & Gold Price Cycle Report - 17th Oct 19
What Makes United Markets Capital Different From Other Online Brokers? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 16th Oct 19
This Is Not a Money Printing Press - 16th Oct 19
Online Casino Operator LeoVegas is Optimistic about the Future - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - Video - 16th Oct 19
$100 Silver Has Come And Gone - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Roll Over Risk to New highs in S&P 500 - 16th Oct 19
10 Best Trading Schools and Courses for Students - 16th Oct 19
Dow Stock Market Short-term Trend Analysis - 15th Oct 19
The Many Aligning Signals in Gold - 15th Oct 19
Market Action Suggests Downside in Precious Metals - 15th Oct 19
US Major Stock Market Indexes Retest Critical Price Channel Resistance - 15th Oct 19
“Baghad Jerome” Powell Denies the Fed Is Using Financial Crisis Tools - 15th Oct 19
British Pound GBP Trend Analysis - 14th Oct 19
A Guide to Financing Your Next Car - 14th Oct 19
America's Ruling Class - Underestimating Them & Overestimating Us - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Range Bound - 14th Oct 19
Gold, Silver Bonds - Inflation in the Offing? - 14th Oct 19
East-West Trade War: Never Take a Knife to a Gunfight - 14th Oct 19
Consider Precious Metals for Insurance First, Profit Second... - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - 13th Oct 19
The Most Successful IPOs Have This One Thing in Common - 13th Oct 19
Precious Metals & Stock Market VIX Are Set To Launch Dramatically Higher - 13th Oct 19
Discovery Sport EGR Valve Gasket Problems - Land Rover Dealer Fix - 13th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - Video - 12th Oct 19
Social Security Is Screwing Millennials - 12th Oct 19
Gold Gifts Traders With Another Rotation Below $1500 - 12th Oct 19
US Dollar Index Trend Analysis - 11th Oct 19
China Golden Week Sales Exceed Expectations - 11th Oct 19
Stock Market Short-term Consolidation Does Not change Secular Bullish Trend - 11th Oct 19
The Allure of Upswings in Silver Mining Stocks - 11th Oct 19
US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences - 11th Oct 19
Now Is the Time to Load Up on 5G Stocks - 11th Oct 19
Why the Law Can’t Protect Your Money - 11th Oct 19
Will Miami be the First U.S. Real Estate Bubble to Burst? - 11th Oct 19
How Online Casinos Maximise Profits - 11th Oct 19
3 Tips for Picking Junior Gold Stocks - 10th Oct 19
How Does Inflation Affect Exchange Rates? - 10th Oct 19
This Is the Best Time to Load Up on These 3 Value Stocks - 10th Oct 19
What Makes this Gold Market Rally Different From All Others - 10th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - 9th Oct 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Dow Busts Through 20k Triggering Speculative Short at Stock Market New All Time High

Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading Jan 28, 2017 - 10:42 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

The Dow finally sprinted to above Dow 20k for the first time ever after having hugged just below 20k since first reaching the mega stock market milestone early December.


Those who follow my analysis will know that my response to the Dow virtually touching 20k was to seek to scale back on stock investments accumulated during a near 8 year relentless bull market. That factually can be termed as being one of the most hated bull markets in history. Whilst my consistent messahge for its duration right since March 2009 when thew Dow bottomed at 6,470 was that this would turn out to be one of the greatest bull markets in history which has subsquently come to pass, as each years perma-bear, perma-wrong assumptions for a imminent end to the bull market let alone for a significsnt 20%+ correction never materialised.

Neverthless in advance of the dilirious, alt-reality Trump taking office, my analysis in the Trump Reset series called for a scaling back of bull market posiitions by at least 50% -

In which respcect I could not have asked for any better than a market that stood virtually suspended at Dow 20k for the following 6 weeks allowing measured distribution to take place. And even better for the UK FTSE that actually rallied during the same period. Ideal market behjaviour for distribution purposes. However the job of distribution now complete, having realised paper profits into real profits. I find myself eager to start accumulating again, where at the top of the list are the two key mega-trends are AI and the Trump Reset as the following videos illustrate:

The Trump Reset - 2 The Putin Doctrine

And then I found mysekf Friday opening a short posiition on the Dow based on little more than a continuation of the my distribution strategy that I have engaged in for the past couple of months. I told myself I am hedging my remaining long holdings but in reality it's a gamble born out of the arrgonagce of habvign been on the RIGHT side of thre stock market for near 8 years!

I've been here before, 1987 springs to mind. So I guess I think I can walk on water and short the Dow at its bull market peak! And so its probable that I am primed to get my tarding fingers a little burnt, which is good to experience a dose of reality.

Anyway I stand here, still bullish long-term and eager to accumulate stocks in key mega-trend sectors, but skeptical for the prospects for stocks for much of 2017 and findign myself going SHORT on the Dow coming off its most recent new all time high.

Let's see what a dose of reality feels like. America too needs a much needed dose of post election reality

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter and youtube channel for forthcoming analysis and detailed trend forecasts aimed at capitalising on the Trump Reset.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2017 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

upwarddog
30 Jan 17, 15:51
Reset implications for US Housing

Nadeem, you've been spot on for years so this short position caught my attention in a big way. How do you feel such a correction will affect US housing overall? I believe you were working on a US housing series update? Many thanks.


despe906
30 Jan 17, 16:19
Nadeem the Invincible

The market refuses to burn your fingers LOL.

I hoped (very intelligently) that after the breakout we would have another leg up November and December style, but no. I had 3 setups negated on 1h Dow chart during this 2 days consolidation and the Dow (also Dax and SnP) displayed the same kind of weakness. Of course, I heard voices in my head that now the market would drop bigly but I don't listen to such voices and I ignore short setups in a rising market - 1d trend was still up. So I wouldn't have balls to short like that. However, I had a nice short trade today on 5m chart.

Trump's game is leading to the bankrupcy of the USA as it was stated in the Simpsons sitcom 16 years ago. Debt default is not so unreal.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules