Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
The Big Short 2020 – World Pushes Credit/Investments Into Risk Again - 11th Jul 20
The Bearish Combination of Soaring Silver and Lagging GDX Miners - 11th Jul 20
Stock Market: "Relevant Waves Vs. Irrelevant News" - 10th Jul 20
Prepare for the global impact of US COVID-19 resurgence - 10th Jul 20
Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction - 10th Jul 20
Declaring Your Independence from Currency Debasement - 10th Jul 20
Tech Stocks Trending Towards the Quantum AI EXPLOSION! - 9th Jul 20
Gold and Silver Seasonal Trend Analysis - 9th Jul 20
Facebook and IBM Tech Stocks for Machine Learning Mega-Trend Investing 2020 - 9th Jul 20
LandRover Discovery Sport Service Blues, How Long Before Oil Change is Actually Due? - 9th Jul 20
Following the Gold Stock Leaders as the Fed Prints - 9th Jul 20
Gold RESET Breakout on 10 Reasons - 9th Jul 20
Fintech facilitating huge growth in online gambling - 9th Jul 20
Online Creative Software Development Service Conceptual Approach - 9th Jul 20
Coronavirus Pandemic UK and US Second Waves, and the Influenza Doomsday Scenario - 8th Jul 20
States “On the Cusp of Losing Control” and the Impact on the Economy - 8th Jul 20
Gold During Covid-19 Pandemic and Beyond - 8th Jul 20
UK Holidays 2020 - Driving on Cornwall's Narrow Roads to Bude Caravan Holiday Resort - 8th Jul 20
Five Reasons Covid Will Change SEO - 8th Jul 20
What Makes Internet Packages Different? - 8th Jul 20
Saudi Arabia Eyes Total Dominance In Oil And Gas Markets - 7th Jul 20
These Are the Times That Call for Gold - 7th Jul 20
A Reason to be "Extra-Attentive" to Stock Market Sentiment Measures - 7th Jul 20
The Beatings Will Continue Until the Economy Improves - 6th Jul 20
The Corona Economic Depression Is Here - 6th Jul 20
Stock Market Short-term Peaking - 6th Jul 20
Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” - 5th July 20
Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve - 5th July 20
Overclockers UK Custom Build PC Review - 1. Ordering / Stock Issues - 5th July 20
How to Bond With Your Budgie / Parakeet With Morning Song and Dance - 5th July 20
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

Gold and Crude Oil Link – What Does It Say?

Commodities / Crude Oil Feb 07, 2017 - 06:19 PM GMT

By: Nadia_Simmons

Commodities

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $56.45 and an initial downside target at $45.81) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Monday, crude oil lost 1.52% after oil investors reacted to Friday’s Baker Hughes’ report, which showed that U.S. drillers added 17 rigs, which was the 13th increase in the past 14 weeks. Thanks to this news light crude reversed and declined to the previously-broken short-term support/resistance line. Will it manage to stop oil bears in the coming days? Is it possible that the relationship between gold and crude oil give us more clues about oil’s future moves?


Let’s examine the charts below to find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

From the weekly perspective, we see that the overall situation in the medium term hasn’t changed much as crude oil is still trading in a narrow range between the previously-broken long-term red line and the red gap, which continues to keep gains in check since the beginning of the year.

Will the very short-term picture give us more clues about future moves? Let’s check.

Yesterday, we wrote the following:

(…) although crude oil moved a bit higher on Friday, the commodity is still trading in the blue consolidation under the red resistance zone. This means that as long as there is no breakout above the upper border of the formation a bigger move to the upside is not likely to be seen as the double (or even triple) top formation (created by the January 6, January 17 and Feb 2 peaks) continues to keep gains in check.

Additionally, the size of volume that accompanied Friday’s increase was smaller than day earlier during the decline, which may be the first sign of oil bulls’ weakness. (…)

Looking at the daily chart, we see that the situation developed in tune with our yesterday’s assumptions. Although light crude moved a bit higher after the market’s open, oil bulls didn’t manage to push the commodity above Friday’s high, showing their weakness. As a result, their opponents took control over the market and crude oil dropped the previously-broken orange declining line, which serves now as the nearest support.

What’s next? Although this short-term line could trigger a rebound, we should keep in mind that the daily CCI and the Stochastic Oscillator re-generated the sell signals, increasing the probability of further deterioration. If this is the case and light crude closes today’s session under the orange line, we’ll see an invalidation of the earlier breakout, which will give oil bears another important reason to act.

In this case, the next downside target will be around $51.70-$52.08, where the green support line based on the previous lows, the lower border of the blue consolidation and the 50-day moving average are.

Before we summarize today’s alert, let’s take a closer look at the relationship between gold and crude oil from the long-term perspective.

Looking at the above chart, we see that the gold-to-oil ratio slipped slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (based on the entire July 2013-February 2016 upward move), but then reversed and rebounded. Thanks to this move the ratio invalidated the earlier small breakdown under this support level, which is a positive signal that suggests further improvement – especially when we factor in the current position of the indicators. As you see, the CCI and the Stochastic Oscillator generated the buy signals, which suggest that another attempt to move higher is just around the corner.

What does it mean for crude oil? As you see on the above charts, may times in the past higher values of the ratio have corresponded to lower prices of light crude. We have seen this strong negative correlation in the second half of June 2008, between April and September 2011, between July 2013 and February 2016 and also between June and July 2016 (we marked all these periods with green), which suggests that another (smaller or bigger) rebound of the ratio will translate into lower values of crude oil in the coming days or even weeks. Therefore, in our opinion, it’s worth to keep an eye on the above chart to receive confirmation of the reversal.

Summing up, short positions continue to be justified as crude oil declined and came back to the previously-broken orange support line, which suggests that we’ll likely see an invalidation of the breakout above it in the coming day(s). This scenario is also supported by the sell signals generated by the daily indicators and the current situation in the gold-to-oil ratio (if you want to know more about this and other interesting ratios, we encourage to sign up to our monthly Oil Investment Updates).

Very short-term outlook: bearish
Short-term outlook: bearish
MT outlook: bearish
LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $56.45 and an initial downside target at $45.81) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Thank you.

Nadia Simmons
Forex & Oil Trading Strategist
Przemyslaw Radomski
Founder, Editor-in-chief

Sunshine Profits: Gold & Silver, Forex, Bitcoin, Crude Oil & Stocks
Stay updated: sign up for our free mailing list today

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Nadia Simmons and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Nadia Simmons and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Nadia Simmons is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Nadia Simmons’ reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Nadia Simmons, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules