Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Will Gold Price Breakout? 3 Things to Watch… - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
2.China Invades Saudi Oil Realm: PetroDollar Kill - Jim_Willie_CB
3.Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast, Paypal FUD Fake Cryptocurrency Warning - Nadeem_Walayat
4.The Stock Market Trend is Your Friend ’til the Very End - Rambus_Chartology
5.This Isn’t Your Grandfather’s (1960s) Inflation Scare - F_F_Wiley
6.GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - Zeal_LLC
7.US Housing Real Estate Market and Banking Pressures Are Building - Chris_Vermeulen
8.Return of Stock Market Volatility Amidst Political Chaos and Uncertain Economy - Buildadv
9.Can Bitcoin Price Rally Continue After Paypal Fake FUD Attack? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Warning Economic Implosion on the Horizon - Chris_Vermeulen
Last 7 days
Gold Price Nearing Bull Market Breakout, Stocks to Follow - 20th Apr 18
What’s Bitcoin Really Worth? - 20th Apr 18
Stock Market May "Let Go" - 20th Apr 18
Overwhelming Evidence Against Near Stock Market Grand Supercycle Top - 20th Apr 18
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi's Want $100 for ARAMCO Stock IPO - 20th Apr 18
The Incredible Silver Trade – What You Need to Know - 20th Apr 18
Is War "Hell" for the Stock Market? - 19th Apr 18
Palladium Bullion Surges 17% In 9 Days On Russian Supply Concerns - 19th Apr 18
Breadth Study Suggests that Stock Market Bottom is Already In - 19th Apr 18
Allegory Regarding Investment Decisions Made On Basis Of Government’s Income Statement, Balance Sheet - 19th Apr 18
Gold – A Unique Repeat of the 2007 and How to Profit - 19th Apr 18
Abbeydale Park Rise Cherry Tree's in Blossom - Sheffield Street Tree Protests - 19th Apr 18
The Stock Market “Turn of the Month Effect” Exists in 11 of 11 Countries - 18th Apr 18
Winter is Coming - Coming Storms Will Bring Out the Best and Worst in Humanity - 18th Apr 18
What Does it Take to Create Living Wage Jobs? - 18th Apr 18
Gold and Silver Buy Signals - 18th Apr 18
WINTER IS COMING - The Ongoing Fourth Turning Crisis Part2 - 18th Apr 18
A Stock Market Rally on Low Volume is NOT Bearish - 17th Apr 18
Three Gold Charts, One Big Gold Stocks Opportunity - 17th Apr 18
Crude Oil Price As Bullish as it Seems? - 17th Apr 18
A Good Time to Buy Facebook? - 17th Apr 18
THE Financial Crisis Acronym of 2008 is Sounding Another Alarm - 16th Apr 18
Bombs, Missiles and War – What to Expect Next from the Stock Market - 16th Apr 18
Global Debt Bubble Hits New All Time High – One Quadrillion Reasons To Buy Gold - 16th Apr 18
Will Bitcoin Ever Recover? - 16th Apr 18
Stock Market Futures Bounce, But Stopped at Trendline - 16th Apr 18
How To Profit As Oil Prices Explode - 16th Apr 18
Junior Mining Stocks are Close to Breaking Downtrend - 16th Apr 18
Look Inside a Caravan at UK Holiday Park for Summer 2018 - Hoseasons Cayton Bay Sea Side - 16th Apr 18
Stock Market More Weakness? How Much? - 15th Apr 18
Time for the Gold Bulls to Show their Mettle - 15th Apr 18
Trading Markets Amid Sound of Wars - 15th Apr 18
Sugar Commodity Buying Levels Analysis - 14th Apr 18
The Oil Trade May Be Coming Alive - 14th Apr 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Lessons

Stock Market Most Overvalued On Record — Worse Than 1929?

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Mar 15, 2017 - 02:31 PM GMT

By: GoldCore

Stock-Markets

The US stock market today has never been more dangerous and overvalued, according to respected Wall Street market analyst John Hussman.


Indeed, Hussman goes as far as to say that “this is the most dangerous and overvalued stock market on record — worse than 2007, worse than 2000, even worse than 1929” as reported by Marketwatch.

For some months now, Hussman of Hussman Funds’ has been warning in his research that investors are ignoring extremely high stock market valuations and are being lulled into a false sense of security by central bank liquidity, massive quantitative easing and zero percent and negative interest rates.

Hussman begins his latest research note by quoting the late, great Sir John Templeton:

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.”

He then warns

“A week ago, bullish sentiment among investment advisers soared to the highest level in 30 years (Investor’s Intelligence), joined last week by a 16-year high in consumer confidence. When one recognises that the prior peak in bullish sentiment corresponds to the 1987 market extreme, and the prior peak in consumer confidence corresponds to the 2000 bubble, Sir Templeton’s words take on both relevance and urgency.”

Hussman advises investors become more defensive, because the market could be about to enter a brutal bear market as seen throughout history.

Huge crowds gather in shock at the New York Stock Exchange after 1929 stock-market crash.

Hussman Funds provide in-depth analytical research on the US stock market. They use long-term valuation models, reversion to the mean and mathematics to support their views.

Dr Hussman says what we’re currently seeing is worse than 2007 when the global financial crisis brought the world economy to its knees, worse than 2000 when the tech bubble popped and caused a market catastrophe, and even worse than the biblical Wall Street 1929 crash.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average recently breached the hugely important psychological level of 20,000 and has recently surged over 20,100 to 21,115.

Throughout history, the first breach of these important psychological resistance levels is usually the end of — rather than the beginning of — a stock market boom. After the initial breach of the barrier, it takes years for the market to make a permanent breach through these ‘barriers’ (see below).

Is this time different?

We do not know and no one has a crystal ball, however it is important to realise that the U.S. stock markets and bond markets are priced for perfection, despite a very uncertain outlook for the U.S. and the world.

Brexit, the risk of Frexit and EU contagion, uncertainty created by the Trump Presidency and considerable geopolitical risk from a myriad of unresolved conflicts – from North Korea to Russia to Iran and the geo-political mess that is the Middle East.


These over valued stock markets are also vulnerable given the scale of over valuation that is evident in bond markets and the real risk of a very significant sell off in global bond markets.

Bond markets have come under pressure in recent days with yields rising in many key markets. Italian debt looks particularly vulnerable with Italian 10 year yields rising and concerns that a break above 2.50% in the third largest bond market in the world (debt valued at €2.2 Trillion) has the potential to jettison Italy out of the European monetary union.

Bond guru Bill Gross is also warning that investors need to keep an watchful eye on the U.S. 10 year bond yield as a breach of 2.6% will mean that “a secular bear bond market has begun.”

A massively indebted EU and U.S., which reaches the debt ceiling today, with indebted households and fragile economic recoveries will struggle when interest rates revert back to more normal levels.

Markets are priced for perfection and yet the political, financial, economic and monetary outlook is less than perfect. Euphoria and “irrational exuberance” will inevitably revert to “fear and loathing”.

The question is when and by what one catalyst or combination of catalysts?

Given the scale of the risks facing investors and pension owners today, it is prudent to reduce allocations to stocks and bonds and increase allocations to physical gold.

Hussman’s Research Comment Can Be Accessed Here

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

15 Mar: USD 1,202.25, GBP 986.69 & EUR 1,132.04 per ounce
14 Mar: USD 1,203.55, GBP 992.33 & EUR 1,130.86 per ounce
13 Mar: USD 1,207.80, GBP 989.79 & EUR 1,132.07 per ounce
10 Mar: USD 1,196.55, GBP 983.56 & EUR 1,127.15 per ounce
09 Mar: USD 1,204.60, GBP 991.39 & EUR 1,140.64 per ounce
08 Mar: USD 1,213.30, GBP 997.70 & EUR 1,149.00 per ounce
07 Mar: USD 1,223.70, GBP 1,003.56 & EUR 1,157.62 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

15 Mar: USD 16.91, GBP 13.87 & EUR 15.92 per ounce
14 Mar: USD 17.00, GBP 14.02 & EUR 15.99 per ounce
13 Mar: USD 17.02, GBP 13.92 & EUR 15.95 per ounce
10 Mar: USD 16.89, GBP 13.91 & EUR 15.92 per ounce
09 Mar: USD 17.14, GBP 14.10 & EUR 16.23 per ounce
08 Mar: USD 17.40, GBP 14.32 & EUR 16.48 per ounce
07 Mar: USD 17.70, GBP 14.52 & EUR 16.74 per ounce

Mark O'Byrne

Executive Director

This update can be found on the GoldCore blog here.

IRL
63
FITZWILLIAM SQUARE
DUBLIN 2

E info@goldcore.com

UK
NO. 1 CORNHILL
LONDON 2
EC3V 3ND

IRL +353 (0)1 632 5010
UK +44 (0)203 086 9200
US +1 (302)635 1160

W http://www.goldcore.com/uk/

WINNERS MoneyMate and Investor Magazine Financial Analysts 2006

Disclaimer: The information in this document has been obtained from sources, which we believe to be reliable. We cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. It does not constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment. Any person acting on the information contained in this document does so at their own risk. Recommendations in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Individual circumstances should be considered before a decision to invest is taken. Investors should note the following: Past experience is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of investments may fall or rise against investors' interests. Income levels from investments may fluctuate. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value of, or income from, investments denominated in foreign currencies. GoldCore Limited, trading as GoldCore is a Multi-Agency Intermediary regulated by the Irish Financial Regulator.

GoldCore is committed to complying with the requirements of the Data Protection Act. This means that in the provision of our services, appropriate personal information is processed and kept securely. It also means that we will never sell your details to a third party. The information you provide will remain confidential and may be used for the provision of related services. Such information may be disclosed in confidence to agents or service providers, regulatory bodies and group companies. You have the right to ask for a copy of certain information held by us in our records in return for payment of a small fee. You also have the right to require us to correct any inaccuracies in your information. The details you are being asked to supply may be used to provide you with information about other products and services either from GoldCore or other group companies or to provide services which any member of the group has arranged for you with a third party. If you do not wish to receive such contact, please write to the Marketing Manager GoldCore, 63 Fitzwilliam Square, Dublin 2 marking the envelope 'data protection'

GoldCore Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules