Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.What Happened to the Stock Market Crash Experts Were Predicting - Sol_Palha
2.London Housing Market Property Bubble Vulnerable To Crash - GoldCore
3.The Plan to Control ALL Your Money is Now at Advanced Stage
4.Why Gold Is Set For An Epic Rally This Spring - James Burgess
5.MR ROBOT NHS Cyber Attack Hack - Why Israel, NSA, CIA and GCHQ are Culpable - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Emmanuel Macron and Banking Elite Win French Presidential Election 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Trend Lines Met, Technical's are Set - US Dollar is Ready to Rally (Elliott Wave Analysis) - Enda_Glynn
8.The Student Debt Servitude Sham - Gordon_T_Long
9.Czar Trump Fires Comey, Terminates Deep State FBI, CIA Director Next? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.UK Local Elections 2017 - Labour Blood Bath, UKIP Death, Tory June 8th Landslide - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
BBC Newsnight Falls for FAKE POLLS, Opinion Pollsters Illusion for Mainstream Media to Sell - 27th May 17
UK Local Election Results Forecast for General Election 2017 - 26th May 17
Stock Market & Crude Oil Forecast! - 26th May 17
Opinion Pollsters UK General Election Seats Forecasts 2017 - 26th May 17
Bitcoin and AltCoins Crypto Price Correction - 26th May 17
Bearish Head and Shoulders in EURUSD? - 26th May 17
SELL US Stocks - Massive Market CRASH WARNING! - 26th May 17
EURGBP: A Picture of Elliott Wave Precision - 26th May 17
Credit Downgrades May Prompt Stock Market Capital Shift - 26th May 17
Rosenstein and Mueller: the Regime Change Tag-Team - 25th May 17
Stock Market Top - Are We There Yet? - 25th May 17
Should I Invest My Fortune in Gold? Inaugural Lecture by Dr Brian Lucey - 25th May 17
USD/CAD Continues Decline - 25th May 17
Bitcoin Price Goes Loco! Surges through $2,500 Despite Unclear Fork Issues - 25th May 17
The US-Saudi Arms Deal - Sordid Saudi Signals - 25th May 17
The No.1 Commodity Play In The World Today - 24th May 17
Marks and Spencer Profits Collapse, Latest Retailer Hit by Brexit Inflation Tsunami 2017 - 24th May 17
Why Online Trading Platforms Are Useful for Everyone - 24th May 17
The Stock Market Will Tank Hard - 24th May 17
It’s Better to Buy Gold & Silver When It DOESN’T Feel Good - 24th May 17
Global Warming - Saving Us From Us - 24th May 17
Stock Market Forecast for Next 3 Months - Video - 23rd May 17
Shale Oil & Gas Production Costs Spiral Higher As Monstrous Decline Rates Eat Into Cash Flows - 23rd May 17
The Only Metal Trump Wants More Than Gold - 23rd May 17
America's Southern Heritage is a Threat to the Deep State - 23rd May 17
Manchester Bombing - ISIS Islamic Terrorist Attack Attempt to Influence BrExit Election - 23rd May 17
What an America First Trade Policy Could Mean for the US Dollar - 22nd May 17
Gold and Sillver Markets - Silver Price Sharp Selloff - 22nd May - 22nd May 17
Stock Market Volatile C-Wave - 22nd May 17
Stock Market Trend Forecast and Fear Trading - 22nd May 17
US Dollar Cycle : Deep Dive - 21st May 17
Bitcoin Breaks the $2,000 Mark as Cryptocurrencies Continue to Explode Higher - 21st May 17
Stocks, Commodities and Gold Multi-Market Status - 21st May 17
Stock Market Day Trading Strategies and Brief 20th May 2017 - 21st May 17
DOW Needs to Rally Big or Correction is Next - 20th May 17
EURUSD reaches DO or DIE moment! - 20th May 17
How to Get FREE Walkers Crisps Multi-packs! £5 to £28k Pay Packet Promo - 20th May 17
UK BrExit General Election 2017 - Will Opinion Pollsters Finally Get it Right? - 19th May 17
Gold Mining Junior Stocks GDXJ 2017 Fundamentals - 19th May 17
If China Can Fund Infrastructure With Its Own Credit, So Can We - 19th May 17
Evidence That Stocks are More Overvalued than Ever - 19th May 17
Obamacare May Become Zombiecare In 2018 - 19th May 17
The End of Reflation? Implications for Gold - 19th May 17
Gold and Silver Trading Alert: New Important Technical Development - 19th May 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

Small Business Survey Says… Ignore the Hard Data at Your Peril

Economics / US Economy Mar 20, 2017 - 04:07 PM GMT

By: Michael_Pento

Economics Surveys of both consumers and businesses show there is an extreme level of confidence regarding future GDP growth. Consumer confidence is now at its highest level since 2001. Small and medium-sized business owners, the driving force of growth in the economy, appear downright giddy; as the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index recently soared to its highest level since 2004.


The Philly Fed Index, a survey that gauges how well manufacturers are feeling, hit its highest level since 1984. Business leaders are betting on tax cuts, infrastructure spending and a scale-back of onerous regulations that will, hopefully, make America great again!

But just as we were beginning to get tired of all this “winning”, investors are also receiving a strong reality check from the actual hard data regarding the current state of economic activity.

The economy slowed more than expected in the fourth quarter of 2016. Gross domestic product increased at a lackluster 1.9 percent annual rate at the end of last year. For all of 2016, the economy grew only 1.6 percent, which was the weakest pace since 2011.

And despite all the good feelings about the current state of affairs, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, is forecasting real GDP growth (at a seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 to come in at a pitiful 0.9 percent.

The hype regarding the potential implementation of Trumponomics appears to be creating a trenchant gap between today’s economic reality and hope about the future.

More evidence of this gap can be found in the January Durable Goods Report, which met expectations at 1.8 percent. However, excluding aircraft, transportation equipment fell 0.2 percent, well below the estimate of a 0.2 percent gain. Core capital goods showed a 0.4 percent decline in orders. This ends 3 months of strength for this reading and dispels the hope for a first quarter business investment boom suggested by the business confidence readings.  Unfilled orders were down 0.4 percent and have now fallen in 7 of the last 8 months--the deepest contraction since the Great Recession.

And we may need to start working on that wall right away if investors are to believe that confidence surveys will catch up with reality. Construction spending fell a sharp 1.0 percent in January. The consensus was for construction spending to increase 0.6 percent.

Personal spending increased only 0.2 percent in January, one-tenth below the consensus. This brings into question whether upbeat consumers are putting their money where their mouths are. Inflation-adjusted spending fell 0.3 percent, the largest drop since September 2009.

Also, Industrial Production for the month of February registered a big fat zero percent growth rate.

And how do you explain the recent drop in the CRB Index?  An economy that is rapidly expanding should see a rise in commodity prices. However, in the week of March 6th; oil price dropped 8%, copper dropped 3.3%, and iron ore dropped 5%. This key growth index is down about 7% since the start of the year and has lost over a third of its value since 2014.

In addition, the latest data on department store and retail sales is alarming. Retail sales increased by just 0.1% in February, which was the smallest gain in the past 6 months. And Zerohedge reported that Bank of America data shows February department store sales fell about 15% yoy—the largest drop on record.

Yet despite any real evidence of actual economic growth, we have a stock market trading at all-time highs and a Fed that is determined to slam the brakes on “runaway” 0.9% growth.  The Republicans in congress are in a battle with Democrats and Libertarians over raising the debt ceiling; and they can’t seem to get out of their own way on health care and tax reform.

Hopefully, these employment and survey anecdotes are leading economic indicators that will turn out to have foreshadowed a leg up in GDP growth. Or, they could end up being the fleeting hiccups of hope in the new President that will end up sinking in the mire of D.C. politics. If the latter case proves to be correct, survey anecdotes will soon reconcile with the persistent anemic path of a sub-par and grossly-injured economy that has been beset by asset bubbles and debt.

The stock market has priced in perfection coming from the new Administration. Unless the Donald can put some tax and regulatory meat on the bones very soon, the stock market should suffer a huge fall.

Michael Pento produces the weekly podcast “The Mid-week Reality Check”, is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies and Author of the book “The Coming Bond Market Collapse.”

Respectfully,

Michael Pento
President
Pento Portfolio Strategies
www.pentoport.com
mpento@pentoport.com

Twitter@ michaelpento1
(O) 732-203-1333
(M) 732- 213-1295

Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS). PPS is a Registered Investment Advisory Firm that provides money management services and research for individual and institutional clients.

Michael is a well-established specialist in markets and economics and a regular guest on CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg, FOX Business News and other international media outlets. His market analysis can also be read in most major financial publications, including the Wall Street Journal. He also acts as a Financial Columnist for Forbes, Contributor to thestreet.com and is a blogger at the Huffington Post.
               
Prior to starting PPS, Michael served as a senior economist and vice president of the managed products division of Euro Pacific Capital. There, he also led an external sales division that marketed their managed products to outside broker-dealers and registered investment advisors. 
       
Additionally, Michael has worked at an investment advisory firm where he helped create ETFs and UITs that were sold throughout Wall Street.  Earlier in his career he spent two years on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.  He has carried series 7, 63, 65, 55 and Life and Health Insurance www.earthoflight.caLicenses. Michael Pento graduated from Rowan University in 1991.
       

© 2017 Copyright Michael Pento - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Pento Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife