Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.The Brexit War! EU Fearing Collapse Set to Stoke Scottish Independence Proxy War - Nadeem_Walayat
2.London Terror Attack Red Herring, Real Issue is Age of Reason vs Religion - Nadeem_Walayat
3.The BrExit War, Game Theory Strategy for What UK Should Do to Win - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Goldman Sachs Backing A Copper Boom In 2017 - OilPrice_Com
5.Trump to Fire 50 US Cruise Missiles To Erase Syrian Chemical Attack Air Base, China Next? - Nadeem_Walayat
6.US Stock Market Consolidation Time - Rambus_Chartology
7.Stock Market Investors Stupid is as Stupid Goes - James_Quinn
8.Gold in Fed Interest Rate Hike Cycles- Zeal_LLC
9.The BrExit War - Britain Intelligence Super Power Covert War With the EU - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Marc Faber: Euro to Strengthen, Dollar to Weaken, Gold and Emerging Markets to Outperform - MoneyMetals
Last 7 days
What A War With North Korea Would Look Like - 25th Apr 17
Pensions Are On The Way Out But Retirement Funds Are Not Working Either - 25th Apr 17
Frank Holmes : Gold Could Hit $1,500 in 2017 Amid Imbalances & Weak Supply - 25th Apr 17
3 Reasons Why “Spring Forward, Fall Back” Also Applies To Gold - 25th Apr 17
SPX may be Aiming at the Cycle Top Resistance - 25th Apr 17
Walmart Stock Extending Higher - Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 25th Apr 17
Google Panics and KILLS YouTube to Appease Mainstream Media and Corporate Advertisers - 25th Apr 17
Gold Price Is 1% Shy of Ripping Higher - 25th Apr 17
Exchange-Traded Funds Make Decisions Easy - 25th Apr 17
Trump Is Among The Institutionally Weakest National Leaders In The World - 25th Apr 17
3 Maps That Explain the Geopolitics of Nuclear Weapons - 25th Apr 17
Risk on Stock Market French Election Euphoria - 24th Apr 17
Fear Campaign Against Americans Continues Nuclear Attack Drills in New York City - 24th Apr 17
Is the Stock Market Bounce Over? - 24th Apr 17
This Could Be One Of the Biggest Winners Of The Electric Car Boom - 24th Apr 17
Le Pen Shifts Political Landscape- The Rise of New French Gaullism  - 24th Apr 17
IMF Says Austerity Is Over - Surplus or Stimulus - 24th Apr 17
EURUSD at a Critical Point in Wave Structure - 23rd Apr 17
Stock Market Grand Super Cycle Overview While SPX Correction Continues - 23rd Apr 17
Robert Prechter Talks About Elliott Waves and His New Book - 23rd Apr 17
Le Pen, Melenchon French Election Stock, Bond and Euro Markets Crash - 22nd Apr 17
Why You Are Not An Investor - 22nd Apr 17
Gold Price Upleg Momentum Building - 22nd Apr 17
Why Now Gold and Silver Precious Metals? - 22nd Apr 17
4 Maps That Signal Central Asia Is at Risk of War - 22nd Apr 17
5 Key Steps For A Comfortable Retirement From Former Wall Street Trader - 22nd Apr 17
Can Marine Le Pen Win? French Presidential Election Forecast 2017 - 21st Apr 17
Why Stock Market Investors May Soon Be In For A Rude Awakening - 21st Apr 17
Median US Household’s Wealth Has Declined by 40% Since 2007 - 21st Apr 17
Silver, Platinum and Palladium as Investments – Research Shows Diversification Benefit - 21st Apr 17
U.S. Stock Market and Gold, Post Tomahawks and MOAB - 21st Apr 17
An In Depth Look at the Precious Metals Complex - 20th Apr 17
The Real Story of China’s Strong First-Quarter Growth - 20th Apr 17
3 Types Of Life-Changing Crisis That Make You Wish You Had Some Gold - 20th Apr 17
The Truth is a Dangerous Thing - 20th Apr 17
2 Choke Points That Threaten Oil Trade Between Persian Gulf And East Asia - 20th Apr 17
Gold’s Next Downside Target Is Around $700… Even if It Breaks Up First - 19th Apr 17
SPX May be Completing its Corrective Pattern - 19th Apr 17
Silver Production Has “Huge Decline” In 2nd Largest Producer Peru - 19th Apr 17
Soothing East Asia's Nerves as Trump's Administration Reaffirms US Power in Asia-Pacific - 19th Apr 17
The Brexit War - Article 50 Triggered, General Election 2017 Called - Let the Games Begin! - 19th Apr 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

MSM Bond Market Full Nonsense Mode as ‘Trump Trades’ Unwind on Schedule

Interest-Rates / US Bonds Mar 22, 2017 - 04:08 PM GMT

By: Gary_Tanashian

Interest-Rates

I’ve been watching the herds to try to determine just when the interest rate topic among the best and brightest (as chosen by the media) would start to pivot from ‘rising rates!’ hysterics that have been locked and loaded in the public psyche since the US election to a sort of ‘rut roh, maybe we got played again… ‘ realization that Rome – and a Great America – are not built in a day.


What I am trying to say is that after the previous media headlines last summer (mainstream media: NIRP & BREXIT!!… everybody into risk ‘off’ bonds!) yields reacted a bit and rose as they should have, from a contrary setup, in order to catch the herds off sides.

But then the hysteria over the Trump election led to the Druck’n Suck-In of the true believers (or “Sons of Druckenmiller”) and… here we are with everybody anti-bonds, pro-reflation and pro-interest rates.  Maybe they would be right this time, but then again, given the herd’s history (from Sentimentrader w/ my markups)…

What got me on this is not that bonds are bouncing in line with NFTRH‘s favored short to intermediate view.  The market has taken a hard lurch in our direction sure, but these are the markets and they live to make over confident or overly promotional commentators eat their words.  What got me on this is that the robo financial media are still just churning out the pablum on an assumption (rising long-term rates) that is anything but assured.  From MarketWatch…

Survey sees bear market for stocks if 10-year Treasury yield hits this level

The title baits you to click and find out just what level that global fund managers think would trigger a bear market in stocks.  Well here it is…

Yields remain too low to hurt stocks for now, survey respondents said, with a minuscule proportion arguing that a 10-year Treasury yield at 2.5% would prove fatal to the bear. But 67% of respondents say a yield in the 3.5% to 4% range would put stocks in the danger zone.

Dude, I hate to clue you but stocks were rising with Treasury yields and a decline in said yields puts more and more people in risk ‘off’ mode because bonds would be rising and they’ll do what they always do and eventually chase the hot (and mature) macro trade.

Meanwhile, below is the updated monthly chart I created (on Jan. 5) of the 10yr yield, in response to a goofy MSM article centered on Louise Yamada’s ability to draw a trend line and draw a scary conclusion and headline for the media to bait more clickers with.  You can click the Bloomberg headline for the article if you like…

Where does the 10yr yield reside today?  Basically at the same level it was at when we called b/s on these hysterics  2.5 months ago.  Imagine that, TNX stopped right at the ‘limiter’ AKA the monthly EMA 110, which has halted every rally since 1994.

Point being, yesterday was a good day here at Bullshitter’s Anonymous.  Anything can happen, but it is always a good idea to keep the mainstream media in a box.  Read ’em, laugh at ’em… even glean some worthwhile information from them.  But also realize the amazingly high proportion of time that the MSM spews, the herd believes and then it all goes wrong for a majority.  That is because the media report the news, just like your ‘action team’ at the local studio.  If you react to news that’s already been anticipated and factored, you are by definition late and set up by the market to be on the wrong side.

Meanwhile, this morning MarketWatch trumpets these 3 headlines as top billing.  And yes, item #2’s truncated ‘Trump finishes with trade’.  That’s a 3fer from the MSM reporting what has been in process for weeks now (a weakening of said ‘Trump Trade’ items in a negative divergence to the broad market).

Our long-standing targets were 2410 for the S&P 500 on price (it actually stopped at 2400.98) and “by March/April” for time.  There’s luck in there for sure because folks, I’m not that good.  But neither is anybody else, especially the MSM, endlessly packaging news items that should be irrelevant (at best) for a successful investor.  Do the work not to be caught up in media rabble rousing.  One day when everybody finally realizes the ‘Trump Trade’ was just another promotion, it’ll be time to go the other way again.

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates (including Key ETF charts) and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com.

By Gary Tanashian

http://biiwii.com

© 2017 Copyright  Gary Tanashian - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Gary Tanashian Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife