Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24
How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - 17th Feb 24
Why Rising Shipping Costs Won't Cause Inflation - 17th Feb 24
Intensive 6 Week Stock Market Elliott Wave Training Course - 17th Feb 24
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend - 17th Feb 24
GameStop (GME): 88% Shellacking Yet No Lesson Learned - 17th Feb 24
Nick Millican Explains Real Estate Investment in a Changing World - 17th Feb 24
US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 7th Feb 24
Stocks Bull Market Commands It All For Now - 7th Feb 24
Financial Markets Narrative Nonsense - 7th Feb 24
Gold Price Long-Term Outlook Could Not Look Better - 7th Feb 24
Stock Market QE4EVER - 7th Feb 24
Learn How to Accumulate and Distribute (Trim) Stock Positions to Maximise Profits - Investing 101 - 5th Feb 24
US Exponential Budget Deficit - 5th Feb 24
Gold Tipping Points That Investors Shouldn’t Miss - 5th Feb 24
Banking Crisis Quietly Brewing - 5th Feb 24
Stock Market Major Market lows by Calendar Month - 4th Feb 24
Gold Price’s Rally is Normal, but Is It Really Bullish? - 4th Feb 24
More Problems in US Regional Banking System: Where There's Fire There's Smoke - 4th Feb 24
New Hints of US Election Year Market Interventions & Turmoil - 4th Feb 24
Watch Consumer Spending to Know When the Fed Will Cut Interest Rates - 4th Feb 24
STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE - 31st Jan 24
Blue Skies Ahead As Stock Market Is Expected To Continue Much Higher - 31st Jan 24
What the Stock Market "Fear Index" VIX May Be Signaling - 31st Jan 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast Review - 31st Jan 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

MSM Bond Market Full Nonsense Mode as ‘Trump Trades’ Unwind on Schedule

Interest-Rates / US Bonds Mar 22, 2017 - 04:08 PM GMT

By: Gary_Tanashian

Interest-Rates

I’ve been watching the herds to try to determine just when the interest rate topic among the best and brightest (as chosen by the media) would start to pivot from ‘rising rates!’ hysterics that have been locked and loaded in the public psyche since the US election to a sort of ‘rut roh, maybe we got played again… ‘ realization that Rome – and a Great America – are not built in a day.


What I am trying to say is that after the previous media headlines last summer (mainstream media: NIRP & BREXIT!!… everybody into risk ‘off’ bonds!) yields reacted a bit and rose as they should have, from a contrary setup, in order to catch the herds off sides.

But then the hysteria over the Trump election led to the Druck’n Suck-In of the true believers (or “Sons of Druckenmiller”) and… here we are with everybody anti-bonds, pro-reflation and pro-interest rates.  Maybe they would be right this time, but then again, given the herd’s history (from Sentimentrader w/ my markups)…

What got me on this is not that bonds are bouncing in line with NFTRH‘s favored short to intermediate view.  The market has taken a hard lurch in our direction sure, but these are the markets and they live to make over confident or overly promotional commentators eat their words.  What got me on this is that the robo financial media are still just churning out the pablum on an assumption (rising long-term rates) that is anything but assured.  From MarketWatch…

Survey sees bear market for stocks if 10-year Treasury yield hits this level

The title baits you to click and find out just what level that global fund managers think would trigger a bear market in stocks.  Well here it is…

Yields remain too low to hurt stocks for now, survey respondents said, with a minuscule proportion arguing that a 10-year Treasury yield at 2.5% would prove fatal to the bear. But 67% of respondents say a yield in the 3.5% to 4% range would put stocks in the danger zone.

Dude, I hate to clue you but stocks were rising with Treasury yields and a decline in said yields puts more and more people in risk ‘off’ mode because bonds would be rising and they’ll do what they always do and eventually chase the hot (and mature) macro trade.

Meanwhile, below is the updated monthly chart I created (on Jan. 5) of the 10yr yield, in response to a goofy MSM article centered on Louise Yamada’s ability to draw a trend line and draw a scary conclusion and headline for the media to bait more clickers with.  You can click the Bloomberg headline for the article if you like…

Where does the 10yr yield reside today?  Basically at the same level it was at when we called b/s on these hysterics  2.5 months ago.  Imagine that, TNX stopped right at the ‘limiter’ AKA the monthly EMA 110, which has halted every rally since 1994.

Point being, yesterday was a good day here at Bullshitter’s Anonymous.  Anything can happen, but it is always a good idea to keep the mainstream media in a box.  Read ’em, laugh at ’em… even glean some worthwhile information from them.  But also realize the amazingly high proportion of time that the MSM spews, the herd believes and then it all goes wrong for a majority.  That is because the media report the news, just like your ‘action team’ at the local studio.  If you react to news that’s already been anticipated and factored, you are by definition late and set up by the market to be on the wrong side.

Meanwhile, this morning MarketWatch trumpets these 3 headlines as top billing.  And yes, item #2’s truncated ‘Trump finishes with trade’.  That’s a 3fer from the MSM reporting what has been in process for weeks now (a weakening of said ‘Trump Trade’ items in a negative divergence to the broad market).

Our long-standing targets were 2410 for the S&P 500 on price (it actually stopped at 2400.98) and “by March/April” for time.  There’s luck in there for sure because folks, I’m not that good.  But neither is anybody else, especially the MSM, endlessly packaging news items that should be irrelevant (at best) for a successful investor.  Do the work not to be caught up in media rabble rousing.  One day when everybody finally realizes the ‘Trump Trade’ was just another promotion, it’ll be time to go the other way again.

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates (including Key ETF charts) and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com.

By Gary Tanashian

http://biiwii.com

© 2017 Copyright  Gary Tanashian - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Gary Tanashian Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in