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Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, May 04, 2016

Interest Rates: Ten-year US Treasury / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Ed_Carlson

TNX (the yield on the 10 year, US Treasury note) fell 3.65% to close at 18.19 on the 30-dma last week. Look for a bounce with equities early this week but don’t expect it to be sustained as the daily Coppock is still high enough to expect a top, not a bottom. Resistance is near 20.00. Look for support at Friday’s close. A break of this level opens the door for a return to the April low near 17.00.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 25, 2016

US Bonds Nearing Their All-time High / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

USB futures are lingering at their lows from Friday.  The Cycles Model suggests a Trading cycle low may be made at any time in the next 72 hours.  What may follow is a ramp to the average target of the Bullish Flag formation. 

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 20, 2016

End Of The Petrodollar: Saudi Arabia Threatens To Dump $700b In Treasuries If Blamed For 9/11 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jeff_Berwick

Every day a new major piece of news comes out showing a system that is on the verge of collapse… and a planned shift to a new global order. In the last two weeks alone, all of this has occurred:

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 08, 2016

U.S. Treasury Shorts Pounded into the Ground / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

This has got to be a decline for the records. There is nothing else like it in this chart. The treasury shorts are getting nailed.

ZeroHedge reports, “Over the past week we have been following a disturbing development in the US Treasury market: while the repo rate on the 10Y has been sliding deep into negative territory for a while, on Friday it finally hit the "fails charge" of -3.00%, suggesting there is a massive shortage of Treasury paper as a result of wholesale shorting by various market participants.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 04, 2016

Short Squeeze in Treasuries? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Day 43 came and went with a small throw-over of the trendline at the close. This final thrust made 21 waves (an impulse) from 1931.88 to today’s close, so I don’t see how they can add any more waves to it.

The normal amount of time in a counter-trend rally is 21 days in a bear market, and often much shorter. Today is day 21 from the February 11 low, so it appears to have fulfilled the time requirement. One of my Swing Models suggested February 26 would give us the turn, but it is now 6 calendar days overdue. Since tomorrow is 4.3 market days from my projected “swing high,” I had originally suggested that tomorrow would be the first low of the decline. I will eat crow over that call.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 01, 2016

US Dollar and US Treasury Bonds Big Picture / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Rambus_Chartology

Since we covered the many different markets in detail last week I would like to focus back in on the US dollar and the TLT looking for clues for the big picture direction. The huge daily swings, in say the INDU last week, makes it very hard to keep and hold a short or long position unless you're perfect on your entry point. In a bull market it's two steps forward and one step backward and in a bear market it's two steps down and one step up. If an entry point in a bear market is not made in the first part of the two steps down sequence you'll find your self behind at some point in the trade if the entry point was made in step two. This is one reason why it's so important to know the direction of the big trend. Until something changes I believe the US stock markets are now in a bear market. There are a lot of things that can change that outlook but for today that's what the charts are suggesting.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 26, 2015

U.S. Bond Market Not Destined to Crash in 2015 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Sol_Palha

Always do what you are afraid to do. Ralph Waldo Emerson

The trend in bonds was bullish for a long time, and one can see how bonds ran up during that time frame. Currently, its neutral and that also has to be viewed through a bullish lens as it should have turned negative given the run-up. Bonds need to close on a weekly basis above 160.00 relatively soon. In fact, there is a good chance that if the next run up fails to take out the August highs of 161-23, bonds will be paving the way for a move down to the 152.00 ranges and then 147-148 ranges.  Traders willing to take on a bit of a risk could consider opening long positions at both levels.  Some funds could be deployed at 152 or better and some at 148 or better.  Market Update, Nov 1st, 2015.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Why Isn’t This Incredibly Bearish Bond Market Development Making the News? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Casey_Research

By E.B. Tucker

Editor’s Note: This is one of the most important essays you’ll read all year. In this special edition of the Casey Daily Dispatch, E.B. Tucker shares an urgent warning you’re unlikely to hear anywhere else.

----------

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

10-year US Treasury Note / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Ed_Carlson

The rate on the 10-year US Treasury Note (ticker symbol TNX) had its best week since June last week with a gain of 8.46% to close at 23.33. It even printed an engulfing bullish candlestick on Friday.

Most of the week’s gain came on Friday’s strong non-farm payroll report. The breakout from the June bear trendline would seem to open the door for a return to the June high near 24.75 but…

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 02, 2015

US Bond Market - How to Fix This / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

By Jared Dillian

This is a pickle wrapped in a conundrum surrounded by a puzzle, or something like that. The Fed declined to hike rates, which everyone thought was bullish, and then stocks got on the vomit comet. They’ve been going down on an elevator ever since.

I think what’s interesting here is how shamefully far behind the Fed is on this. Dudley is out there still talking rate hikes. Like, just the other day. He has gone right out of his tree. It’s almost as if he lost his B-Unit and can’t log into Bloomberg.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Panic Is Spreading, Part 1: Surge in Junk Bond Defaults Imminent / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Rubino

One of the early signs that a cycle is about to turn down is disorder in junk bonds. That’s because the companies that issue such bonds are by definition financially and/or operationally weak and therefore ultra-sensitive to changes in their environment. A modest drop in, say, consumer spending or the price of wind turbines will hardly be noticed by an Apple or GE but might threaten the survival of those companies’ weakest competitors. And as credit bubbles inflate, the weak in every field tend to proliferate as overexcited bankers and bond funds offer them plenty of rope with which to hang themselves.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, September 13, 2015

Three Critical and Disturbing Facts About the Debt Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Investment_U

Andrew Snyder writes: The next five days are going to be some of the most important days for investors in recent history. What happens next will set the stage for big profits or a sustained downturn.

We are worried about what the Fed has done to the interest rate game. As Yellen and her troops prepare to raise rates for the first time in over half a decade, the distortions they created in the market have become flat-out dangerous.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

A Street Car Named U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

sIn the 1947 Tennessee Williams play "A Streetcar Named Desire" as she is being carted off to the mental institution Blanche Dubois utters these famous words ... "I have always depended on the kindness of strangers."

And like Ms. Dubois, the United States has also come to depend on the kindness of strangers to fund a massive $18.3 trillion in debt.

But that kindness the US Treasury has come to depend upon may be waning. Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities fell in May for a second straight month. The Treasury Department reported total holdings were down 0.1% in May to $6.13 trillion. This comes after an even bigger 0.6% decline in April.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

10yr Treasury Notes / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Ed_Carlson

TNX, the yield on the 10 year Treasury note, fell for the fourth week in a row with a loss of 1.36% to close at 21.75 on Friday after challenging the 30-dma earlier in the week. TNX remains in the 2015 trend channel and should find support at the lower boundary and 200-dma both which are near 21.34.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Greenspan Warns Be Afraid of U.S. Bond Market Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Bloomberg

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan spoke with Bloomberg's Tom Keene about the U.S. economy, bond market and Fed policy.

On how afraid we should be of bubbles, Greenspan said: "Very much so. I think we have a pending bond market bubble. If we merely substitute the structure of equity prices and we have the price of bonds and instead of expected equity return we do have expected interest rate return. That price earnings ratio is an extraordinarily unstable position."

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