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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 09, 2024

The Bond Trade and Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

An opportunist trade to capitalise on the bond market blood bath of 2023,, objective for about a 50% return over 2 years with my original analysis timed to coincide with the bond market bottom - 7th Aug 2023 https://www.patreon.com/posts/inflation-bond-87342150

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 01, 2023

The Bond Trade / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Bond Markets look like they have bottomed.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, November 03, 2023

US Bond Market Chaos to Increase by March 2024 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

The major issue with the bond market right now is the overwhelming amount of bond issuance combined with the notable absence of the usual buyers. In other words, the illiquidity is already causing U.S. sovereign debt to trade like a microcap penny stock. This dysfunctional trading environment should become exponentially worse by the end of Q1 2024.

The U.S. national debt is now $33.5T, and the interest on that debt is $712b so far this year. That interest expense is set to double over the next few years as our debt is rolling over at much higher interest rates. Interest payments equal to 17% of all Federal revenue and should easily jump to 35% of all income very soon. The deficits will be much greater when the recession arrives, as the automatic economic stabilizers kick in, just as revenue also collapses. Entitlements and debt service payments will equal 100% of all revenue by 2040 at the very latest. At that point, there will be no room for any other government spending. Our bond market is fracturing, and it is becoming an existential crisis for our financial system. What else would you expect when the nation’s annual deficit is 45% of our revenue, and that is adding on each year to the national debt, which is an incredible 771% of annual federal income!
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Interest-Rates

Saturday, October 28, 2023

The Bond Trade / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As expected the four bond funds have been gravitating towards bear market lows and thus offering an opp to accumulate, I am now approx 55% invested.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 10, 2023

How to Capitalise on the UK and US Bond Markets Blood Bath of 2023 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the final part of my extensive analysis Inflation Bond Fire of the Vanities Breeds Opportunity that was first made available to Patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, lock it in now at $5 as this will soon rise to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 08, 2023

US Bond Market Opportunity - IBTL.L $279- US Treasury 20+yr / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

IBTL.L $279- US Treasury 20+yr - US Equiv TLT ETF

Peaked at $523, collapsed to it's recent low of near 50% to $276, imagine all those who swallowed the financial advisors and media sales pitch to be 60% in bonds because they are 'lower risk' then stocks! This is HORRIFIC! MORE THAN DOUBLE THE RISK FOR A FRACTION OF THE RETURN OF STOCKS! HORRIFIC! Still it gives a higher volatility potential to accumulate into right now. Potential upside over 2-4 years is for $422 for a 52% on the current price!

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 08, 2023

US Bond Market Opportunity - IBTM.L £135.8 - US Treasury 7-10Yr / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This bond fund is down 29% from it's high with potential upside target of £175 for a 27% gain over a target 2-4 years, so a lower / risk lower return component of the portfolio. I've been accumulating since £139 with limit orders ever £1 lower, as well as timed based buys.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 18, 2023

US Treasury Bond Market Yield Curve / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

That was one hell off a drop in the 2 year yield yesterday, went straight from 5% to 4%. Now US rates are on par with where they were when the S&P was trading at 4200, of course it's not as simple as that, the rate fell in response to the Fed bailout of the banking crime syndicate. Still this should be positive for stocks.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 12, 2023

Interest Rates Should Continue To Fall, Eventually Setting Up A Bond Market Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Avi_Gilburt

If you have been reading my public articles on TLT over the last half a year, then you would know of my expectation to see the bond market rally into 2023, and rates falling into 2023.

When I first put this expectation out last year, many (even some of my own clients) thought I was simply crazy. With rates skyrocketing towards 5%, most were quite certain that we would easily eclipse that point, and move well towards 6% and even higher. And, of course, the reason most maintained that expectation was due to the Fed’s public position of continuing to raise rates.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, July 03, 2022

Is the US Yield Curve Inversion Broken? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The US has experienced 6 recessions over the past 40 years each of which were accompanied by an inversion of the 2 year and 10 year treasury bond yields an average of 18 months BEFORE the recession so whilst US yield curve inversions have proven to be a useful indicator in the past, though this time around inflation has been warning of a recession for a good 6 months before the US yield curve recently tentatively inverted sending MSM into a spin. Still the below chart does demonstrate that a yield curve inversion was imminent given that the interest rates have hit the down sloping trendline at which point yield curves tend to invert usually in advance of a recession which tends to typically follow 12 to 18 months after inversion, in terms of stocks and housing this implies downwards price pressure AHEAD of the recession rather than WITH the recession. But again all of the inversions of the past 20 years were during periods of LOW inflation.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 27, 2022

Have US Bonds Bottomed? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A patron asked if US bonds have bottomed / are cheap to buy now that inflation is 'peaking'.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, April 16, 2022

Inflation pushes the 30-year Treasury bond yield through long-term moving average trends! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

Okay, let’s take a breath. I don’t like to use ‘!’ in titles or even in articles. In fact, when I see too many of them I immediately think that someone really REALLY wants me to see their point. That said, the signal shown below is pretty important.

It’s in-month with a monstrously over-bearish bond sentiment backdrop similar to when we installed a red arrow on the chart below at the height of the Q1 2011 frenzy (cue the Bond King: “short the long bond!”). Chart jockeys are probably delivering the bad news of the chart’s inverted H&S, a potential for which NFTRH began managing a year ago when the 30yr yield hit our initial target of 2.5% and then recoiled as expected after the public became very concerned about inflation.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 15, 2022

US Treasury Bonds Not Reflecting Risks Like They Usually Do – Where’s The Beef? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Chris_Vermeulen

I’ve been paying close attention to Bonds as the global markets react to rising inflation and global central bank moves recently. The US Federal Reserve has yet to take any actions to raise rates, but we all know it will come at some point. Longer-term bonds are acting as if these risks are much more subdued than many traders/investors believe – which has me questioning if global central banks have overplayed the stimulus game?

Why would traditional safe-haven assets fail to act in a manner that reflects current market risks like they would typically do? Why have precious metals failed to reflect these risks also properly? Is there something brewing in traders’ minds that are muting or mitigating these traditional safe-haven assets?

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 07, 2021

US Bonds Yield Curve is not currently an inflationist’s friend / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

The yield curve is flattening

I don’t cheer-lead a given view, but if I were to do that I’d be cheering for a yield curve flattener to put a correction to inflationist dogmatists quoting von Mises to the herds and otherwise sloganeering about inflation and a “commodity super cycle” (that term is pure promo).

Well, the curve is flattening.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 16, 2021

US Bond Market Long-term Trend / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The screeching that one hears from the likes of Michael "Big Short" Burry is that the US Bond market is about to collapse. We'll all I can see when looking at the long-term chart is that since the pandemic panic bond market spike of March 2020, bonds have been in a correction against it's primary bull trend, and that correction appears to have ENDED.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 30, 2021

Behavior of Inflation and US Treasury Bond Yields Seems… Contradictory / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The bond yields dropped despite surging inflation. It’s not a usual thing on the market, so we have to ask: what does it mean for gold?

The markets hide many mysteries. One of them is the recent slide in the long-term bond yields. As the chart below shows, both the nominal interest rates and the real interest rates have been in a downside trend since March (with a short-lived rebound in June). Indeed, the 10-year Treasury yield reached almost 1.75% at the end of March, and by July it decreased to about 1.25%, while the inflation-adjusted yield dropped from -0.63% to about -1%.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 08, 2021

US Interest Rates: Making the Improbable Today’s Reality / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Paul_Rejczak

The US Federal Reserve has raised its interest rate guidance for 2023; and potentially late 2022. Oddly enough, interest rates have moved lower since the last Fed meeting.

I see an opportunity today.

You would think that the higher interest rate guidance would have created a bump higher in the $TNX (Ten-Year Note Yield). However, wouldn’t that make too much sense? The more trading experience I have gotten over the last two decades, the clearer it is, that logic doesn’t always work - unless you are early enough.

If you have been following along, you know that yesterday, I discussed the S&P Banking sector, namely KBE, as we wait for a pullback to some key technical levels.

It got me thinking: the Ten-Year Note yield should be very similar to that trade.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, May 23, 2021

US 10-Year Note Yields: Opportunity to Benefit? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Submissions

Given yesterday’s headlines with Bitcoin plunging, did you take a peek at interest rates? Could a stronger dollar lie ahead with higher rates?

While everybody’s eyes are peeled on cryptocurrencies and a crowded short DXY trade, let’s revisit the potentially polar opposite of a crypto instrument: 10-year notes. Yields rose on Wednesday, settling at 1.683%, just off the intraday high of 1.692%. I like to take a look when few others are looking. As yields closed near the highs of the day, with other risk assets seeming out of favor, at least temporarily, let’s revisit the 10-year notes.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

U.S. Dollar Junk Bond Market The Easiest Money in History / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

The latest data from Refinitiv shows that companies have raised a record $140 billion in the U.S. dollar junk bond market during the first quarter of this year. That beats the previous record set during the second quarter last year when companies scrambled to issue debt in a bid to raise cash during the pandemic. The three biggest issuance quarters in history have been set in the past year. With investors falling over themselves to lend money to any venture offering a U.S. dollar yield above 4%, companies are now not only finding that they can raise money easily in order to roll over existing debt, but some are using the proceeds to pay dividends to owners. It's beyond absurd.

When a mania is in full force, though, the vast majority of participants are blind to the absurdity. Investors, for instance, think that they must lend because 4% or higher is such a juicy yield when compared with anything else. And the central banks will not let companies fail, so it's a free lunch.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 25, 2021

It’s the Bond Market, Stupid / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

As our Continuum chart predicted over a year ago, Jerome Powell was called to his higher inflationary powers when the macro markets liquidated with great violence and terror. This link shows the Continuum (30yr yield and its monthly EMA 100 limiter) as it was then, begging for inflationary action…

Oh Jerome? Bond market calling…

Below is the Continuum today. Since the linked post from February, 2020, a lot has happened and it has been according to the plans we laid out last spring. The plan was inflationary because the Fed was going into steroidal inflation mode. The ‘Fed comfort box’ on the chart has thinned out from the original post because the red dotted limiter (monthly EMA 100) has declined appreciably since then.

These many months the NFTRH target has been 2.5% to 2.7% on the 30yr Treasury yield. This week that zone’s lower bound got dinged. It is coming time for a cool down at least, if the macro reflation is going to get a second wind. What could provide that second wind?

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