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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Now That Bonds Have Pulled Back As Expected, Maybe We Can Set Up Another Rally / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Avi_Gilburt

I think this market has been providing many investors with whipsaw and head aches, which has also caused much head scratching. (And, yes, that little itch may be telling you something.)

Back in November of 2018, no one even considered the possibility of a bond rally because the Fed was raising rates. And, recently, no one even considered the possibility of any type of top in bonds because the Fed is now lowering rates. Has anyone considered that maybe the Fed does not control the bond market? (See my prior articles for thoughts on this).

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 05, 2019

Here’s How You Build a Bond Portfolio That Works / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jared_Dillian

When you invest in bonds, do you buy individual bonds or bond funds?

  • Unless you have a lot of money, you should probably buy bond funds.
  • And even if you do have a lot of money, you should probably buy bond funds.

Let me explain.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 03, 2019

Looking For A US Bond Market Top / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Avi_Gilburt

Those that have followed my bond analysis since November have made quite a bit of money. While the stock market is basically in the same place it was back in the early fall of 2018 when we went long bonds, TLT has rallied from our entry in the 112/113 region in TLT to a high of almost 149.

Let me take a moment to recap my recent history and perspective on bonds. For those that followed our work over the years, you would know that we called for a top to the bond market on June 27, 2016, with the market striking its highs within a week of our call. Right after that top call, TLT dropped 22%, until we saw the bottoming structure develop in late 2018.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 25, 2019

If You Don’t Understand Bonds, You Don’t Understand Investing / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jared_Dillian

The first thing I read about investing wasn’t actually a book. It was a pamphlet that I got somewhere, 23 years ago.

The pamphlet said you should invest in bonds as well as stocks. It said bonds went up when interest rates went down, and vice versa. It didn’t go into any more detail.

Well, I did what the pamphlet said, even though I had no idea what the hell I was doing, and I wouldn’t figure out for a few more years why it was a good idea.

I suspect a lot of people don’t take that advice on diversification simply because they don’t know what the hell they are doing.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 16, 2019

When the US Bond Market Bubble Blows Up! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

Amazing isn’t it? It was only back in H2 2018 when everybody but you (because you are as smart as I think you are or because you read NFTRH or nftrh.com) and me was unbelievably bearish about the TREASURY BOND BEAR MARKET!!!

Today… not so much. The herd is absolutely pile driving bonds right now.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

You Have to Buy Bonds Even When Interest Rates Are Low / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jared_Dillian

Interest rates are currently low.

That is by far the biggest concern among bond investors. They are drowning in worry about low interest rates and their effect on bonds. So let’s address that.

Saying interest rates are currently low is another way of saying that bonds are expensive—which makes people not want to invest in bonds. Fair enough.

Stocks are also expensive—but you invest in those!
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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 11, 2019

Gold and the Bond Yield Continuum / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

Have you heard the news? US Treasury bonds are sky rocketing as it turns out there is no inflation amid a global central bank NIRP-a-thon and race to the currency bottom. Going the other way, our 30yr Treasury yield Continuum is burrowing southward.

If you check out yesterday’s post you’ll see proof that the 2018 NFTRH view that people should tune out the bond experts instructing BOND BEAR MARKET!! was 100% on target.

But today the din is coming from the opposite pole. Everywhere you look on the financial websites it’s now about tanking yields, decelerating growth, trade war damage and deflation. Here is the 30 year bond yield (TYX), which is front and center in this hysteria (click the charts below for the clearest view). That is one impulsive looking drop.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, August 10, 2019

EURODOLLAR futures above 2016 highs: FED to cut over 100 bps quickly / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: QUANTO

The sceptre of recesion is growing worldwide. German industrial production registered its biggest annual decline in almost a decade when it reported numbers in June. We covered it here The result was country’s flattest yield curve since the financial crisis.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 07, 2019

Are You Still Trying To “Fade” The Bond Market Rally? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Avi_Gilburt

For weeks, if not months, I have been reading one bearish bond article after another. In fact, many of these same writers have been arguing with me for months about the bond rally I expected back in November of 2018. One suggests that this rally is really a “fake,” whereas another has been strongly suggesting that investors fade this rally, with many more supporting their opinions. The problem is that these analysts have been trying to “fade” this rally for the last 10-15% up. Yet, I will gladly bank my “fake” 20% profits on this trade.

As each week goes by, I continue to chuckle about how many people do not understand the context of the markets upon which they opine. Remember how certain analysts and investors were that rates were only headed higher back in November of 2018?

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 02, 2019

Post FED US Bond Market Yield Spread Falls Further: Risk Aversion is at the Door / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: QUANTO

All Powell needed to do was cut rates and to soften the blow on the short end of the curve, he needed to speak of the strong economy and that would have controlled the 1 month and 3 month and 2 year yields. Instead he ended up confusing about recovery and talking of nonsensicall comical terms like insurance cut etc. These are jargons that one should never use.

The reaction from the bond market was immediate as the 1 month and 3 month yield jumped sharply. Money was flowing out to the long end which is exactly what Powell didnt want to happen when he said "inflation gets baked in to bond yields". Even as he was saying, that is what was happening. We take a look at some of the charts which define and go beyond normal technical and trend lines for forex. We have always suggested: NEVER TRADE FOREX ON TECHNICAL INDICATORS. THEY ARE LAGGING. TO LOOK BACK AND TRADE FORWARD IS FOOLISHNESS.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 05, 2019

Bond Market Shows Us The Power Of The Dark Side / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Avi_Gilburt

First, I want to begin this article by thanking all those who read my articles for the amazing outpouring of support and prayers for my wife who is recovering from a freak accident. So, with her sleeping right now, I thought I would pen another article to at least keep myself somewhat busy.

Over the years, I have published many price trend change expectations which have hit quite well. Some examples include the top to gold in 2011 at 1915 (with gold topping at 1921), the bottom in the dollar in 2011 (with an expectation of a multi-year rally to within pennies of our target struck six years later), many major turning points in the S&P500, and many other calls throughout the last 8 years I have been publishing my market calls.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 01, 2019

US Bond Market You Have to Invite the Vampire Into Your House / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

A vampire needs to be invited in order to enter your house. So the story goes. But in this case, we are talking about the Macro house, with its nexus in the USA and its Central Bank.

You see, the Federal Reserve inflates money supplies as a matter of doing business, which is why I noted so strenuously in Q4 2018 that Jerome Powell’s then-hawkish stance in the face of a declining stock market made perfect sense… because the 30 year Treasury bond was not bullish; it was bearish and getting more so under the pressure of rising inflation expectations.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 22, 2019

Next Recession: Finding A 48% Yield Amid The Ruins / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Dan_Amerman

In a previous analysis we examined how to create a 21% yield, as the incidental byproduct of the Fed's plans for the cyclical containment of recession.

In this analysis, we will deepen that examination and visually illustrate the financial mathematics that would create a potential 48% yield from what the Federal Reserve plans to do in the event of another recession.

This analysis is part of a series of related analyses, an overview of the rest of the series is linked here.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, November 11, 2018

Here’s Why 10%+ US Treasury Bond Yields Are a Real Possibility / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

The US Treasury has closed the books on Fiscal Year 2018, which was another debt-financed failure.

The federal government spent above $4.1 trillion in FY 2018. It had to borrow $779 billion on budget and a few hundred billion more off-budget.

And over 40% of the on-budget deficit went simply to pay $325 billion in interest on previously-issued debt.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 15, 2018

US Bond market Yields Break 20-year Trends / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Donald_W_Dony

Bond yields have been in decline for a long time. In fact, throughout the last 20 years, the 10 and 20 year US Treasury bonds yields have dropped by almost 80 percent.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 04, 2018

US Bond Yields Positioned for Upside Acceleration / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Ten-year Yield has climbed to a new post-July 2016 (1.32%) high at 3.17%, the highest yield since July 2011, over 7 years ago!

From a technical perspective, today's surge above May-Oct 2018 resistance at 3.11% is a reaction to very strong recent data showing strong ADP Payrolls for September (230,000 vs. 185,000 expected), and impressive ISM Non-manufacturing data across the Headline data (61.6 vs. 58 expected), as well as the sub-surveys in Business Activity, Prices, Orders and Employment for September.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 31, 2018

Recommendation for Bond Investors: Don’t Fight Financial Repression / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: F_F_Wiley

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released two supplemental reports this month—the first reveals budget scenarios it “did not have enough time” to include in June’s 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook, and the second shows what needs to happen for policy makers to reach certain government debt targets.

I plan to post a few charts summarizing the new reports, but because I’m sounding off on bonds for now (or in a moment) and don’t need all the detail to support my argument, I’ll share only a short summary of the first report.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 21, 2018

US Treasury Bonds $TNX Curveball Update / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Rambus_Chartology

Over the last several months or so I’ve been writing about the bond market throwing us a possible curveball. Instead of continuing rising interest rate we may see falling rates. Today the $TNX, 10 year treasury yield finally broke below the neckline we’ve been following that started to developing back in January of this year. I’ve labeled the H&S top as an unbalanced H&S top as the price action formed a second right shoulder that was a small H&S top. A backtest to the neckline would now come into play around the 28.65 area.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

A Bullish Bond Argument That Hides in Plain Sight / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: F_F_Wiley

It’s been awhile since I advised anyone to load up on long Treasuries. The bearish bond narrative has been too strong for that, thanks largely to fiscal policy but also to near-4% unemployment rates, quantitative tightening and—maybe most threatening of all—tit-for-tat tariffs.

In fact, I challenge anyone to think of a time during the past two decades when bond bears (read: most mainstream commentators) have possessed a more compelling Powerpoint pack.

But maybe the powerful bear story has become overplayed, maybe it was fully or almost fully priced in by mid-May, when the 10-year Treasury yield reached a six-year high of 3.11%. If so, it might be a good time to revisit the argument that the secular bull is still intact, a time for contrarians to speak up.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, May 25, 2018

The Bond Market Just Figured Out That Central Banks CANNOT Exit / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

To recap yesterday’s piece concerning the recent shift in Central Bank policy, from mid-2016 onward:

1)   Central Banks engaging in emergency levels of QE at a time in which their respective economies were growing.

2)   Inflation bottoming then beginning to rise.

3)   Bond markets starting to revolt.

4)   Central Banks opting to walk back their QE programs.

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