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Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Friday, May 22, 2015

Inaccurate Economic Statistics and The Threat to the Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Statistics have become very misleading: in particular we are being badly misled into believing that the US is teetering on the edge of price deflation, because the US official rate of inflation is barely positive, a level that US bonds and therefore all other financial markets have priced in without accepting it is actually significantly higher.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, May 18, 2015

Bond Market Chaos Is Spinning Out of Control / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Michael Lewitt writes: A few weeks ago, the man formerly known as the Bond King, Bill Gross, tweeted that shorting German bunds would be the trade of the century.

I was gratified to see that he was reading my mind, as readers of my Credit Strategist newsletter already know.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, May 15, 2015

Double Black Diamond - What a Bond Bear Market Looks Like / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

I was a halfway decent skier when I was a kid. Good enough that I could navigate every trail on the mountain except for one or two. Good enough that I could do the double black diamonds.

My grandfather built a cabin on the access road to Sugarbush, Vermont, in the ‘80s and sold it in the ‘90s. Makes me weep when I think what that thing would be worth now. I wasn’t kidding when I said I come from a financially unsophisticated family.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Debt Bomb - Big Volatility Shakes Bond Market Investors / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

Is the debt bomb about to go off?

Editor's note: You'll find the text version of the story below the video.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

U.S. Bond Bear Market Still Underway? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Tony_Caldaro

The has been lots of talk lately of a Bond market top. This type of talk has actually been going on, and off, for a few years. To our surprise we find we have not written a Bond specific report in nearly three years: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2012/07/02/bonds-and-long-term-rates/. In that report we detailed why we expected Bond yields to be bottoming in 2012. The 10YR did make a new yield low that year at 1.39%, and it has remained above that low ever since – currently 2.27%. The 30YR also made a new low yield that year at 2.45%. It then rose to 3.98% in 2014, but renewed its decline into a lower low at 2.23% in February of this year – currently 3.04%.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, May 05, 2015

TLT Breaks a Head & Shoulders Neckline / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

TLT just crossed the neckline of its Head & Shoulders formation, suggesting a very steep decline to 107.76.
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Interest-Rates

Monday, May 04, 2015

U.S. Long Bond, an Historic Trading Opportunity? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Dan_Norcini

This past week saw a huge swing in interest rates at the long end of the curve with the long bond in particular getting knocked for a loop.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Rush Hour! A Bond Market Traffic Jam / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Harry_Dent

Rodney Johnson writes: In the early 1990s I was a young bond trader with a Wall Street firm. 

The business was not exactly like the movies, but it wasn’t too far off, either. We got to work by 7:00 a.m., set the strategy for the day — “Are we buying more or selling more?” — and then got on the phones. 

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 06, 2015

3 Sigma Extremes In the U.S. Treasury Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: DeviantInvestor

US T-Bond futures closed Friday, March 27 up nearly 12% from the February close.  That was the 3rd largest monthly percent move since 1977 when my data begins and created a 3.61 standard deviation change.  This is a huge move.  What does it mean?

The US T-Bond market peaked on March 25 at an all-time high over 165, up from about 75 in 1990.  Bonds move inversely with yields, so yields have dropped to their lowest level ever.  This is not surprising because central banks have been monetizing sovereign debt, buying bonds, and supporting the bond and stock markets.  Several $Trillion in European sovereign debt currently “pays” negative interest – an extreme condition.  The Bank of Japan has aggressively purchased Japanese government bonds as well as Japanese stocks – another extreme example of a bond bubble.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 13, 2015

Watch As All the Bond Market Rats Jump Ship before FOMC Meeting / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

Short-Term Market Flipping

Markets are just hilarious these days, there is no meaningful investments in the era of High Frequency Trading, Spoofing Algos, Pump & Dump IPO Schemes and ZIRP free money to borrow at the drop of a hat.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 13, 2015

The Crazy Man's Guide to the U.S.Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

I invite you to inspect the following chart of 10-year interest rates in the US.

If you don’t have a lot of experience with these things, let me clue you in: This is a very scary-looking chart. It’s a classic head-and-shoulders bottom in yields.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Six Days Until U.S. Bond Market Crash Begins / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

Run for the Exits
Early on Tuesday morning, realizing this was going to be a robust selloff in equities, the ‘smart money’, i.e., the big banks, investments banks, hedge funds and the like, ran to the old staple of buying bonds hand over fist with little regard for the yield they are getting paid for stepping in front of the freight train of rate rises coming down the tracks.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 09, 2015

U.S. 30 Year US T-Bonds Price Forecast / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Austin_Galt

There has been quite a bit of chatter recently about interest rates in the US with many proclaiming interest rates are now headed up. Are these voices right? Having just analysed the technicals of the 30 Year US Treasury Bonds, it is my considered opinion that they are both right and wrong.

Keeping in mind that interest rates go up as bond prices go down, let’s investigate the price charts and we’ll mix it up by starting with the monthly chart first.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 14, 2015

U.S. Treasury Long Bond Breakdown / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Dan_Norcini

Well, here we go again. I do not know how many times over the past year or so I have noted what looked like a chart breakdown in the US long bond. By that I specifically mean a close BELOW the 50 day moving average. Generally, that will get technicians to sit up and take notice and begin to approach a market from the short side. Each time I have noted this however, the bonds have done a flip-a-roo and back up they have gone continuing the bull streak.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 07, 2015

The Party Is Likely Over for U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Sy_Harding

U.S. treasury bonds defied the experts last year.

The consensus was that once the Fed began dialing back its massive bond-buying stimulus program last January, bond prices would have to begin plunging. With the stock market so clearly in an ongoing bull market, why would anyone but the Fed buy bonds with their yields at record lows, providing almost no income? The lack of interest in bonds was obvious from their plunge in 2013 even when the Fed was aggressively engaged in its QE bond buying.

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