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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

4% US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Will Be a Floor Not a Ceiling / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

The two most important factors in determining the level of sovereign bond yields are the credit and inflation risks extant within a nation. When determining a country’s ability to service its debt investors must analyze not only the absolute debt level, but also the ratios of debt and deficits to GDP. In addition, the current rate of inflation must also be viewed within the context of debt in order to make an accurate assumption as to the level of future inflation.

When analyzing historical measures of these criteria, the conclusion reached is that the U.S. 10-year Note yield should rise to at least four percent in the coming quarters.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 07, 2018

Is The 37 Year Bullish US Treasury Bond Market Ending? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: ElliottWave-Forecast

The bond market has enjoyed a strong bull market for nearly four decades with yields continuing to go lower. The bull market has been going on for so long that no current active fund manager can imagine what it looks like when interest rates were to be like the 1980s at 20%. If people in the 1980s started trading in their early thirties, they would have been almost 70 years old by now, so chances are they are not active in the market anymore.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 05, 2018

Global Synchronized US Bond Collapse / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

We have all heard, in ad nauseam fashion, Wall Street’s current favorite mantra touting a global synchronized economic recovery. For the record, global GDP growth for 2017 was 3.7%, according to the International Monetary Fund. And, although this is an improvement from recent years, you must take into account that in 2004 it was 4.4%, in 2005 it was 3.8%, in 2006 it was 4.3%, and in 2007 it was 4.2%. The Point being, it’s not as if the current rate of global growth has climbed to a level never before witnessed in history—it’s not even close.

However, the more salient phenomenon now underway—far more important than the rather pedestrian move higher in global GDP--is the globally synchronized bond collapse, which the Main Stream Financial Media is dismissing with alacrity. Yields are on the move higher around the world and the rate of change is now escalating.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, February 04, 2018

10yr Yield Nears Target, ‘Inflation Trade’ Failing, Gold Sector Shaking Off Inflation Bugs / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

Over and over again I’ve been making goofy headlines about the Amigos, the 3 macro riders who will reach (or abort) their respective destinations, at which point the macro is subject to change. The latest update was yesterday with a daily chart view.

Just look at them, the SPX vs. Gold Amigo, the 10yr & 30yr Yield Amigo and the Yield Curve Amigo. So happy-go-lucky while they ride. But #2, the one in the middle, looks like he’s bracing for something.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 01, 2018

Will the Threat of a Bear Market in Bonds Finally Get Stocks Attention? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

The single most important bond in the world is the US 10-Year Treasury bond.

According to modern financial theory, this bond, with a duration that is meant to cover a full economic cycle, is generally considered the “risk free” rate of the return for the entire financial system.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 01, 2018

US Treasury Yields Inflating? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Submissions

Fundamentals

The Herd is running into one direction. It is from bonds into stocks. The latest BAML Fund Manager report showed an intresting picture. Extreme flows have been recorded over the past couple of months relative to the past 12 years. That came on top of the fact that flows were at elevated levels throughout the past 14 months already.

The investment reasoning behind that gets confirmed by economic fundamentals. The US economy is expanding, retail sales have risen to all-time highs, unemployment is at a multidecade low, and new home sales look as good as they have never looked for the past 10 years.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 31, 2018

The Most Important Bond In the World Just Broke a 25 Year Downtrend / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

The single most important bond in the world is the US 10-Year Treasury bond.

According to modern financial theory, this bond, with a duration that is meant to cover a full economic cycle, is generally considered the “risk free” rate of the return for the entire financial system.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

US Treasury Bonds: Fuse to Light the Bonfire / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Many are the metaphors used to describe the agent that initiates a major crisis. Light the fuse, or pull the trigger, pull the rug out from under the room, or pull on the string for unraveling the sweater, these are commonly heard. What comes soon is the Bonfire of the Vanities, a term the Jackass prefers since irony is thick. Hardly the burning of objects deemed as tempting toward occasions of sin as in the 15th Century. In the present-day case, the burning would be of the massive piles of paper assets the US Federal Reserve has been illicitly supporting for the past several years. The bonfire would be of falsely valued heaps of paper. If truth be known, the Quantitative Easing was put in place in 2012 when the big US banks were all in danger of failures. They required amplified liquidity infusions in order to prevent these giant silos of insolvency from entering financial failure. Their huge bond holdings were supported. Generally, when insolvency meets illiquidity, big failures occur. The USGovt and USFed colluded to prevent the entire set of Wall Street banks from failing like Lehman Brothers did. They all had the same ugly insolvent traits. Few tell the story correctly, but Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan suffocated Lehman to death. Lehman did not fail without help. Like Chief Justice Scalia, Lehman was suffocated in a bed of unpaid bond sales. What comes next is a nasty corrosive dangerous sequence of financial market crises, where pumped paper assets suffer notable declines. It will include the stock, bond, and currency markets. The last times all three suffered simultaneous declines was 1979 and 1987. Add soon 2018.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, January 14, 2018

Did China Just Burst the Everything Bubble? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

The biggest news today comes from China, which has announced it will “slow or halt” US Treasury purchases.

This is the so-called NUCLEAR option: the threat by China to stop buying US debt. And it’s an absolute game-changer.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, January 14, 2018

Bubble Watch: Both the Currency Markets and Bonds Markets See Inflation Coming / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

If you want to make money investing, you first need to understand the structure of the asset classes in our current financial system,

Everyone likes to go bonkers over stocks, but the reality is that the stock market is in fact one of the smallest and least liquid markets on the planet. All told, US stocks are roughly $26 trillion in market cap.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

TMV : 3X Leveraged Short on US Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Rambus_Chartology

TMV is a 3 X short the TLT 20 year treasure bond etf. This trade is based on the TLT. For well over three years now the TLT has been building out what looks like a massive H&S top with the top of the right shoulder now in play. I’m going to take an initial position and buy 250 shares of TMV, 3 X short the TLT, and buy 250 shares at the market at 18.83 with the sell/stop on a daily close below the right shoulder low on the daily chart for the TMV at 17.35. I’m anticipating the the right shoulder high on the TLT will be the ultimate high. There will be several more entry points if this trades starts to workout.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 21, 2017

If You Want To Get Rich, Invest In T-Bills, Not FANGs Or Bitcoin / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : Demand curves are usually downward-sloping. That’s because people will buy more of a product when it is cheaper and less of it when it is more expensive.

Some things—like stocks and especially bitcoin—have upward-sloping demand curves, which should be theoretically impossible. But they happen in the real world. People really want bitcoin when it is expensive, but nobody was interested when it was cheap.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

US Bond Market Operation Twist by Another Name and Method? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

The TIP/IEF ‘inflation gauge’ is still motoring upward after breaking above the SMA 200. If this turns the 200 up along with the MA 50 it could indicate a mini hysteria about inflation.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 08, 2017

If This Bond Market Line Breaks, We’re in Serious Trouble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

Let’s talk about Junk Bonds.

Junk Bonds are corporate debt issued by companies that have a significant chance of defaulting (meaning they don’t pay you back).

Why would anyone want to lend these companies money?

Because these bonds are risky, they typically pay very large yields to compensate for the increased risk. Think yields of 8% or even 10%.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, October 21, 2017

“Great Rotation” Ahead; Will it Be Inflationary or Deflationary? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

[edit] This article ultimately leans toward the view that the reasons for a rising curve will be inflationary. But I woke up in the middle of the night and my thoughts drifted to the components of the article (yeah, that’s pretty sad, I know), and with further consideration I am leaning toward neutral or even a bit into the deflationary camp. The reasons will be the stuff of another article.

Think back to the blaring headlines about the Great Promotion Rotation in the financial media in 2013. Perhaps the media circus started in January of that year when The Economist asked the question of whether the rise in bond yields signaled a “flight” out bonds and into equities. It was probably an earnest and right minded question asked by The Economist, but you know our friends in the greater financial media; get a good story and flog the hell out of it to harvest eyeballs. Reality be damned, man, it’s the eyeballs that matter!

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, September 23, 2017

Calling the UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Bonds Low ... Where Is Yield Heading Next? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Calling the UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Bonds Low ... Where Is Yield Heading Next?

On September 6, with the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) reaching a new low (33.32) in its 7-month corrective process, we noted that "Dec-Sep correction could be at or nearing a downside exhaustion."

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 07, 2017

Forecasting US 30-Year Treasury Bond Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Francois_Soto

The movement of interest rates affects lenders and creditors across global markets while influencing key variables such as output, employment, etc.

We predict the US Generic 30-Year Treasuries Yield using a selection of macroeconomic variables chosen from hundreds of time series available.

We trade US1 future contracts based on the differential between the regression output and the actual yield and this strategy is profitable.

Interest rates are an important monetary policy tool to gauge the state of the economy and for policy makers to act accordingly. Per its definition, it is the rate at which interest is paid by a borrower for the use of money. The movement of interest rates affects lenders and creditors across global markets while influencing key variables such as output, employment, consumption, etc.
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Interest-Rates

Sunday, July 09, 2017

Did Junk Bonds Just Signal the End to This Credit Cycle? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

Stocks are now in very serious trouble.

The S&P 500 has fallen to test its “election rally” trendline. If the market breaks down here, there’s essentially one giant “air pocket” down to 2,200 or so.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 03, 2017

NY Fed President Just Admitted Ignoring The Bond Market… I Have A Theory / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

Speaking at a Business Roundtable event, New York Fed President William Dudley reportedly expressed great confidence in both the economy and the Fed’s policy moves.

Dudley is not even slightly concerned about the Fed’s overshooting with its rate hikes. In fact, he is supremely confident that inflation will overshoot if the Fed doesn’t tighten policy.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

US Bonds and Related Market Indicators / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

Excerpted from the June 25 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, which also included comprehensive analysis of US and global stock markets, commodities, precious metals and stock charts galore (with the Market Internals segment, in particular, having evolved into what I find to be a must-have guide).

TLT is now a buck from its target of 129. Tell me, where is all that mania about rising interest rates and the likes of the “R.I.P. Bond Bull Market” headlines (Bloomberg called the bottom almost to the day with that Louise Yamada hype). Now a mature bounce labors on. 129 does not need to stop the move, but it’s a long-standing marker, so…

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