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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

MSM Bond Market Full Nonsense Mode as ‘Trump Trades’ Unwind on Schedule / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

I’ve been watching the herds to try to determine just when the interest rate topic among the best and brightest (as chosen by the media) would start to pivot from ‘rising rates!’ hysterics that have been locked and loaded in the public psyche since the US election to a sort of ‘rut roh, maybe we got played again… ‘ realization that Rome – and a Great America – are not built in a day.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 25, 2017

A Damaging Week for U.S. Treasury Yield! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

What a weird and unsettling week. The equity indices for the most preserved their gains, albeit despite Thursday's divergent action, while the bond market went straight up (YIELD straight down), which is the more curious of the major asset class behavior as we head into the weekend...

Technically, the plunge in yield fom 2.46% on Tuesday to 2.30% on Friday (-6.5%) has broken the integrity of the Dec-Feb high-level coil/digestion pattern. It is threatening to morph all of the action since Dec 15 (2.64%) into an intermediate-term top formation that will project weaker yield into the area of the up-sloping 200 day eMA, now at 2.10%

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 31, 2017

US 10-Year Bond Yield Transitioning Out of Multi-Year Bear Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

My intermediate and longer term technical set-up work on 10 year U.S. Treasury YIELD argues that benchmark yield is in transition from a 35 year Bear Market (dominant downtrend) into a multi-year Bull Market (dominant uptrend).

From 1981, when 10 year yield peaked at 15.84% amid concerns about rampant, un-containable inflation and stagnant growth ("Stagflation") precipitated initially by the 1973 OPEC Oil Embargo, benchmark yield steadily and relentlessly declined to a post-Financial-Crisis 2016 low at 1.32% (see Charts 1 and 2).

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

TLT Update…US Bonds and Gold an Odd Couple / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Rambus_Chartology

Lets start by looking at a weekly chart for TLT, 20 year bond etf, which shows it built out a H&S top last summer. That H&S top is a reversal pattern that showed up at the end of its bull market which has been ongoing for many years. There is a big brown shaded support and resistance zone that has been offering support.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Fed Monetary Policy Is Impotent Against These Trends / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

Chris Wood of CLSA has a marvelous newsletter called, aptly, GREED & fear. He began his January 5 issue talking about bond yields possibly bottoming out.

For perspective, he starts with this long-term view of the 10-year US Treasury yield.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

How Bond Market Investors Were Fooled Twice / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

The Commercials and Large Speculators are routinely on the opposite sides of trades

Most investors, including large groups of professional money managers, extrapolate financial trends into the future. So they're often completely caught off guard when a trend changes.

[Editor's Note: The text version of the story is below.]

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, January 08, 2017

China Potentially Threatens a Near Term Us Treasury Bond Market Short Squeeze! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gordon_T_Long

Problems in China are looming on top of an already very tenuous and misunderstood situation in the US Financial Markets. Additionally, Federal Reserve Policy has made the situation even more combustible!

As a result of a Trump Victory inspired bond market massacre there are now few places that a yield starved world can presently find better risk-adjusted yields than in US Treasuries. With China now being forced to sell their FX Reserves and thereby creating  the much needed supply so eagerly craved by foreign investors, it is also further depleting an already restricted EuroDollar pool required to buy this supply. There are consequences of this combination of shifting global parameters.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 04, 2017

Trumponomics Won’t Trump the Bond Market Bust / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

Despite the millions of dollars Wall Street plowed into the Clinton campaign in vain, the financial industry has nevertheless now become downright giddy with the prospects of a Donald Trump presidency. The imperative question investors need to determine is will the Trump presidency be able to generate viable growth. And, if he cannot produce robust and sustainable growth imminently, are the markets now priced for perfection that simply may never arrive?

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 26, 2016

Moment of Truth for US Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Savage

Moment of Truth for Bonds

Bonds are severely oversold. There should be a bounce but if it’s weak, or doesn’t last very long then prepare for a crash. I’ve never seen a bubble yet that popped gracefully.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, December 24, 2016

A Broken US Bond Market Bounce Beckons! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gordon_T_Long

Historical Correlations Give Us a Clue to What May Be Ahead!


A Falling Global Market Cap Trend Channel

The old adage that the "Trend is Your Friend" has proven to be the one that separates the winners from the losers. The key however is whether you recognize the right trend!

We are being possibly lulled into a false perception and belief of how good things appear if we solely look at the US equity rally. Yes it is temporarily rising but the 600# Gorilla is the Global Bond market and major problems are still lurking.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Why Are Foreign Nations Dumping US Treasuries / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Dan_Steinbock

Recently, foreign holders of US treasuries have been dumping their holdings more and at record pace. Optimists see it as a temporary fluctuation. Realists warn about structural change.

According to US Treasury data, major foreign holders of US treasury securities have been reducing their holdings by almost $250 billion since March. The pace of dumping has intensified with some $200 billion reduced in just past two months.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 18, 2016

US Bond Market Implosion Continues / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Savage

The Bond Implosion Continues

Is the bond market implosion the next black swan event that everyone is ignoring?

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 17, 2016

The 70-year US Treasury Bond Market Cycle and SPX Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / US Bonds

By: Tony_Caldaro

The market started the week at SPX 2260. After a slightly lower open on Monday the SPX rallied to the current uptrend high at 2278 on Tuesday. On Wednesday the FED raised rates for the first time in a year and the market pulled back to SPX 2248. Then a rally on Thursday to SPX 2272 was followed by a smaller pullback into a Friday 2258 close. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Economics reports were plentiful and ended the week slightly positive. On the downtick: export/import prices, industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts, build permits, plus the treasury budget increased. On the uptick: retail sales, the CPI/PPI, NY/Philly FED, the NAHB, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Q3 GDP, leading indicators and the PCE index. Best to your pre-holiday week!

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 12, 2016

The Yield That Breaks the Trump Rally's Back / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

In 2012 I wrote a book called "The Coming Bond Market Collapse", in that book I predicted that the bond market would begin to collapse by the end of 2016. Clearly, this prediction has started to come true. However, in all candor, I never dreamed that the Ten-year Treasury yield would plummet to 1.3%. Neither did I ever imagine that over thirteen trillion dollars' worth of global sovereign bonds would have a negative yield, as was the case this past summer.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 08, 2016

Violent US Bond Market Selloff: An Eye-Opening Perspective / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

In Elliott wave terms, bond investors have transitioned from extreme optimism to extreme pessimism

[Editor's Note: The text version of the story is below.]

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