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Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

TNX - A little Late But Still Expected / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Ed_Carlson

The high forecast by the Hybrid Lindsay model for early last week was delayed for three days by option expiration. Even if the high is seen today or tomorrow, that would still be within the margin of error for the model. The new high in the Dow probably means that a new Basic Advance began last February but we’ll wait and see what happens during the upcoming pullback before making that “official”.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, July 09, 2016

10-Year Treasury Bond At All-Time Low...Explains Stocks Bull Market... / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jack_Steiman

We have been going nowhere for a couple of years. Within that process the emotions of all traders were tested over and over. Many times it appeared that the market was about to break down. Action was terrible on price and their oscillators, and that bad action was accompanied by poor economic reports. One after another, they came in poorly. Just when all hope seemed lost for the bulls they'd pull some magic trick, also known as fed-magic dust. A QE program here. A bail out there. Low rates forever everywhere kept the markets from breaking down. It was good to be the fed. You needed a bull to keep the economy going through those 401K reports. It didn't always work though because the market couldn't break out.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, July 09, 2016

Dead Pulses & Urgent Systemic Reform / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Several important factors work in a powerful manner to debilitate, to distort, and to wreck the global financial and economic system. It is long past the point of effective remedy. After the Lehman kill event, every conceivable wrong move and policy was made and implemented. The investment in the corrupt elements has been so profound in the last several years, as to make remedy impossible. The official policies have been so errant and heretical, as to make remedy impossible. The distortions with the broken elements have been so dedicated in service to the ruling banker class, as to make remedy impossible.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 11, 2016

Final Top Of US Bond Bull Market Set For 3rd Qtr of 2016 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Austin_Galt

The 30 Year US Treasury Bond market has been trending up since 1981. This massive bull market is set to reach its conclusion next quarter if my analysis is correct.

Let's analyse the technicals of both price and yield of the 30 Year US T-Bond. We'll begin with the longer term quarterly chart of price.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, May 04, 2016

Interest Rates: Ten-year US Treasury / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Ed_Carlson

TNX (the yield on the 10 year, US Treasury note) fell 3.65% to close at 18.19 on the 30-dma last week. Look for a bounce with equities early this week but don’t expect it to be sustained as the daily Coppock is still high enough to expect a top, not a bottom. Resistance is near 20.00. Look for support at Friday’s close. A break of this level opens the door for a return to the April low near 17.00.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 25, 2016

US Bonds Nearing Their All-time High / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

USB futures are lingering at their lows from Friday.  The Cycles Model suggests a Trading cycle low may be made at any time in the next 72 hours.  What may follow is a ramp to the average target of the Bullish Flag formation. 

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 20, 2016

End Of The Petrodollar: Saudi Arabia Threatens To Dump $700b In Treasuries If Blamed For 9/11 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jeff_Berwick

Every day a new major piece of news comes out showing a system that is on the verge of collapse… and a planned shift to a new global order. In the last two weeks alone, all of this has occurred:

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 08, 2016

U.S. Treasury Shorts Pounded into the Ground / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

This has got to be a decline for the records. There is nothing else like it in this chart. The treasury shorts are getting nailed.

ZeroHedge reports, “Over the past week we have been following a disturbing development in the US Treasury market: while the repo rate on the 10Y has been sliding deep into negative territory for a while, on Friday it finally hit the "fails charge" of -3.00%, suggesting there is a massive shortage of Treasury paper as a result of wholesale shorting by various market participants.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 04, 2016

Short Squeeze in Treasuries? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Day 43 came and went with a small throw-over of the trendline at the close. This final thrust made 21 waves (an impulse) from 1931.88 to today’s close, so I don’t see how they can add any more waves to it.

The normal amount of time in a counter-trend rally is 21 days in a bear market, and often much shorter. Today is day 21 from the February 11 low, so it appears to have fulfilled the time requirement. One of my Swing Models suggested February 26 would give us the turn, but it is now 6 calendar days overdue. Since tomorrow is 4.3 market days from my projected “swing high,” I had originally suggested that tomorrow would be the first low of the decline. I will eat crow over that call.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 01, 2016

US Dollar and US Treasury Bonds Big Picture / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Rambus_Chartology

Since we covered the many different markets in detail last week I would like to focus back in on the US dollar and the TLT looking for clues for the big picture direction. The huge daily swings, in say the INDU last week, makes it very hard to keep and hold a short or long position unless you're perfect on your entry point. In a bull market it's two steps forward and one step backward and in a bear market it's two steps down and one step up. If an entry point in a bear market is not made in the first part of the two steps down sequence you'll find your self behind at some point in the trade if the entry point was made in step two. This is one reason why it's so important to know the direction of the big trend. Until something changes I believe the US stock markets are now in a bear market. There are a lot of things that can change that outlook but for today that's what the charts are suggesting.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 26, 2015

U.S. Bond Market Not Destined to Crash in 2015 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Sol_Palha

Always do what you are afraid to do. Ralph Waldo Emerson

The trend in bonds was bullish for a long time, and one can see how bonds ran up during that time frame. Currently, its neutral and that also has to be viewed through a bullish lens as it should have turned negative given the run-up. Bonds need to close on a weekly basis above 160.00 relatively soon. In fact, there is a good chance that if the next run up fails to take out the August highs of 161-23, bonds will be paving the way for a move down to the 152.00 ranges and then 147-148 ranges.  Traders willing to take on a bit of a risk could consider opening long positions at both levels.  Some funds could be deployed at 152 or better and some at 148 or better.  Market Update, Nov 1st, 2015.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Why Isn’t This Incredibly Bearish Bond Market Development Making the News? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Casey_Research

By E.B. Tucker

Editor’s Note: This is one of the most important essays you’ll read all year. In this special edition of the Casey Daily Dispatch, E.B. Tucker shares an urgent warning you’re unlikely to hear anywhere else.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

10-year US Treasury Note / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Ed_Carlson

The rate on the 10-year US Treasury Note (ticker symbol TNX) had its best week since June last week with a gain of 8.46% to close at 23.33. It even printed an engulfing bullish candlestick on Friday.

Most of the week’s gain came on Friday’s strong non-farm payroll report. The breakout from the June bear trendline would seem to open the door for a return to the June high near 24.75 but…

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 02, 2015

US Bond Market - How to Fix This / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

By Jared Dillian

This is a pickle wrapped in a conundrum surrounded by a puzzle, or something like that. The Fed declined to hike rates, which everyone thought was bullish, and then stocks got on the vomit comet. They’ve been going down on an elevator ever since.

I think what’s interesting here is how shamefully far behind the Fed is on this. Dudley is out there still talking rate hikes. Like, just the other day. He has gone right out of his tree. It’s almost as if he lost his B-Unit and can’t log into Bloomberg.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Panic Is Spreading, Part 1: Surge in Junk Bond Defaults Imminent / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Rubino

One of the early signs that a cycle is about to turn down is disorder in junk bonds. That’s because the companies that issue such bonds are by definition financially and/or operationally weak and therefore ultra-sensitive to changes in their environment. A modest drop in, say, consumer spending or the price of wind turbines will hardly be noticed by an Apple or GE but might threaten the survival of those companies’ weakest competitors. And as credit bubbles inflate, the weak in every field tend to proliferate as overexcited bankers and bond funds offer them plenty of rope with which to hang themselves.

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