Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
The Big Short 2020 – World Pushes Credit/Investments Into Risk Again - 11th Jul 20
The Bearish Combination of Soaring Silver and Lagging GDX Miners - 11th Jul 20
Stock Market: "Relevant Waves Vs. Irrelevant News" - 10th Jul 20
Prepare for the global impact of US COVID-19 resurgence - 10th Jul 20
Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction - 10th Jul 20
Declaring Your Independence from Currency Debasement - 10th Jul 20
Tech Stocks Trending Towards the Quantum AI EXPLOSION! - 9th Jul 20
Gold and Silver Seasonal Trend Analysis - 9th Jul 20
Facebook and IBM Tech Stocks for Machine Learning Mega-Trend Investing 2020 - 9th Jul 20
LandRover Discovery Sport Service Blues, How Long Before Oil Change is Actually Due? - 9th Jul 20
Following the Gold Stock Leaders as the Fed Prints - 9th Jul 20
Gold RESET Breakout on 10 Reasons - 9th Jul 20
Fintech facilitating huge growth in online gambling - 9th Jul 20
Online Creative Software Development Service Conceptual Approach - 9th Jul 20
Coronavirus Pandemic UK and US Second Waves, and the Influenza Doomsday Scenario - 8th Jul 20
States “On the Cusp of Losing Control” and the Impact on the Economy - 8th Jul 20
Gold During Covid-19 Pandemic and Beyond - 8th Jul 20
UK Holidays 2020 - Driving on Cornwall's Narrow Roads to Bude Caravan Holiday Resort - 8th Jul 20
Five Reasons Covid Will Change SEO - 8th Jul 20
What Makes Internet Packages Different? - 8th Jul 20
Saudi Arabia Eyes Total Dominance In Oil And Gas Markets - 7th Jul 20
These Are the Times That Call for Gold - 7th Jul 20
A Reason to be "Extra-Attentive" to Stock Market Sentiment Measures - 7th Jul 20
The Beatings Will Continue Until the Economy Improves - 6th Jul 20
The Corona Economic Depression Is Here - 6th Jul 20
Stock Market Short-term Peaking - 6th Jul 20
Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” - 5th July 20
Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve - 5th July 20
Overclockers UK Custom Build PC Review - 1. Ordering / Stock Issues - 5th July 20
How to Bond With Your Budgie / Parakeet With Morning Song and Dance - 5th July 20
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

SNP Controlled Scottish Parliament Demands Right for Scotland to Commit Suicide - Indyref2

Politics / Scotland Mar 29, 2017 - 05:41 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

As Britain counts down to triggering Article 50 later today the SNP fired another missile at Westminister Tuesday in their continuing program towards the subversion of the settled BrExit will of the British people by voting to demand that another Scottish Independence referendum be held before the BrExit negotiations are finalised with the EU. This despite the fact that in the run up to Scotland's September 2014 Independence Referendum the Scottish Nationalists from Alex Salmond and Nichola Sturgeon down promised that they would abide by the results of the referendum, declaring that it was at least a once in a generation decision if not once in a life time decision.


Therefore the SNP run Scottish government instead of focusing on actually governing Scotland to improve the lives of ordinary Scots, instead will waste the next 2 years playing a game with Westminister of repeatedly making demands that the UK parliament will reject and then using the rejections as smoke and mirrors propaganda to mask the failure of the SNP to govern Scotland, whilst fixating the Scottish people towards the fantasy prospects of an IS paradise which would be just as detached from reality as the fantasy the IS of the Levant paints for its fanatical followers.

Here's a reminder of why the SNP cannot be trusted who blindly only see Independence as the answer to every question, and thus remain fanatically determined to destroy the United Kingdom at every opportunity in their quest to hold ever-endums until Scotland votes to commit suicide.

Scotland Second Independence Referendum War

Scotland and Access to the EU Single Market

One of the primary propaganda points for the SNP demanding a second Independence is so as to retain access to the Single Market. Thus the SNP are seeking protect trade with European Single Market comprising of exports totaling £12.3bn, 8% of the Scottish economy. The disruption of which the SNP proclaims would be disastrous for the Scottish Economy. Therefore the SNP is seeking to EXIT the UK and ENTER the EU single market in pursuit of protecting this £12.3 bln of trade with the EU whilst making unsubstantiated claims that the EU will welcome Scotland into the EU with open arms and thus it would not be necessary for Scotland to actually leave the EU. However these SNP hopes have not been matched by statements out of the EU whose member states fear their own Scotland's demanding their own independence referendums and thus have stated that Scotland would need to apply for membership of the EU that could take anywhere from 2 years to 10 years.

However, the SNP are deliberately hiding the big elephant in the room consequence of Scotland Exiting the UK from the Scottish people, which is that Scotland would LOSE access to the UK SINGLE MARKET, one of Scottish exports worth more than £55bn to the rest of the UK, 36% of the Scottish economy, and more than four times the amount of Scottish exports to the EU.

Therefore the SNP in seeking to protect £12.3bn of exports to the EU, 8% of the Scottish economy, seek to sacrifice £55bn of exports to the UK, 36% of the Scottish economy, which demonstrates that the SNP's argument for Independence is wholly based on spite, determined to disrupt the Brexit negotiations with the ultimate objective of destroying the United Kingdom at any cost to Scotland AND the rest of the UK. If this is not fundamentalist fanaticism then what is it? For the arguments put forward by the SNP based on trade and access to markets does not stand up to any close scrutiny. The SNP's propaganda is akin to Trumpism i.e. wholly based on a fake reality.

Scotland losing access to the UK single market would be near FIVE TIMES as damaging to the Scottish economy then Scotland losing access to the European single market. And this is before one considers the fact that an Independent Scotland would have NO currency, which means Scotland would immediately need to to adopt the Euro without any transitional period, that is even if the euro-zone would allow such an destabilising event to take place.

The English Subsidy

The SNP in attempting to convince the Scottish people into commit collective suicide paints a fantasy picture of what an Independent Scotland would be, referring to building on Scotland's existing relative prosperity to the rest of the UK, one of average public spending far exceeding that of England which is why Scotland has free university education whilst English students are saddled with £40k+ of debt. Free prescriptions whilst English patients have to be pay more than £8 per item and the list goes on and on. And similar is true for Northern Ireland and Wales as the following table from the last Scottish Independence referendum illustrates:

However, what the SNP propaganda smoke screen tends to be effective at masking in the consciousness of at least half of the Scottish people is the fact that this huge disparity in public spending amounting to currently near £2,000 per head of population is as a consequence of the English subsidy. One of English tax payers forced to subsidise Scotland to the tune of £12 billion per annum that fills most of the black hole in Scotland's finances currently amounting to an annual budget deficit of £15bn per annum, some 10% per annum, far beyond that of bankrupt Greece!

Therefore one of the primary reasons why the people of England receive such a raw deal when it comes to quality of public services is as a consequence of being forced to subsidise the EU to the tune of £11bn a year and Scotland to the tune of £12bn a year, with another £15 billion going to Northern Ireland and Wales each year.

So if the SNP were able to con the Scottish electorate into committing suicide then at the end of the day once the dust has settled from the resulting chaos of ripping the UK apart then England should start to reap the benefits of no longer having to subsidise Scotland in perpetuity. Though of course there will be a heavy cost to England of a breakup of the UK that could total as much as £120bn, especially as a bankrupt Scotland would be in no position to service its share of Britains £1.8 trillion national debt.

Whilst it could take more than a decade before England starts to turn a profit from the break up of the UK. For Scotland, well the Scottish economy would have jumped over the edge of a cliff where the impact of the loss of the English subsidy would be felt near instantaneously. The Scottish economy would be in free fall and it would not be too long before Scotland passes Greece on the way down as the loss of £12bn per annum would demand deep cuts in government spending that I am sure would result in the SNP permanently losing power in Holyrood for bringing about such a catastrophe onto the Scottish people.

Scotland would have NO £12 billion annual subsidy from the UK, and there is no way that the EU would pick up this annual bill, seeking to replace the UK a net £11billion contributor with an net £12 billion recipient, it will never happen in reality only in SNP fantasy.

The bottom line is that yes Scottish independence would mean pain for the rest of the UK, probably taking the UK a decade to fully recover from its consequences. However, for Scotland Independence would be catastrophic as there is the real risk that Scotland may not even survive in tact from what would follow as bordering regions in severe permanent economic distress would soon start to demand their own referendums to re-join the UK.

Therefore as I stated in my recent in-depth analysis the Scottish people would once more vote NO to Independence and likely in greater number than in September 2014. Thus all that the SNP are doing is manifesting their hatred of England by attempting to undermine and subvert the Brexit will of the British people DURING the EU negotiations, i.e. attempting to inflict maximum damage to the United Kingdom, behaving as though they are an EU fifth column working in the interests of the European Union rather than in the interests of the United Kingdom and the Scottish people for if an Independence Referendum were held today then they KNOW THEY WOULD LOSE BADLY! Hence the ghame is one of disruption and subversion.

14 Mar 2017 - SNP Declare Scotland to Commit Economic Suicide Early 2019, 2nd Independence Referendum

Scottish People Will Vote NO to Independence

So Scottish Independence is just NOT going to happen! Because Scotland can NEVER BE INDEPEDENT, all that the SNP fanatics are seeking is a worse deal than that which Britain already has i.e. no opt outs, no rebate and part of the euro-zone, effectively to be Greece 2.0. The scottish people will see through this smoke screen and likely result in an even stronger vote to remain within the UK than in 2014.

Therefore we can all turn down the sound on our TV's whenever we hear shrill SNP voices as amounting to nothing more than the insane ramblings of IS fanatics, devoid of reasoned argument and rational thought who see EVERY EVENT through the prism of breaking up the UK.

Scotland will NOT vote for Independence in a Second Referendum! Furthermore I expect loss of a second referendum to be the nail in the SNP's political coffin as they see their dominance in Holyrood diminish over time at each election as the traditional parties make a comeback.

Thus Theresa May is correct to recognise the game that the SNP are attempting to play by flat out rejecting holding a Scottish Independence referendum until well AFTER Brexit has been concluded. Therefore everyone needs to practice turning the volume down or channel surfing each time Nicola Sturgeon appears to screech demanding ever-endums.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for my next in-depth analysis which will be on what Game Theory says Britain Should do following triggering of Article 50.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2017 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules