Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.What Happened to the Stock Market Crash Experts Were Predicting - Sol_Palha
2.London Housing Market Property Bubble Vulnerable To Crash - GoldCore
3.The Plan to Control ALL Your Money is Now at Advanced Stage
4.Why Gold Is Set For An Epic Rally This Spring - James Burgess
5.MR ROBOT NHS Cyber Attack Hack - Why Israel, NSA, CIA and GCHQ are Culpable - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Emmanuel Macron and Banking Elite Win French Presidential Election 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Trend Lines Met, Technical's are Set - US Dollar is Ready to Rally (Elliott Wave Analysis) - Enda_Glynn
8.The Student Debt Servitude Sham - Gordon_T_Long
9.Czar Trump Fires Comey, Terminates Deep State FBI, CIA Director Next? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.UK Local Elections 2017 - Labour Blood Bath, UKIP Death, Tory June 8th Landslide - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
GBPUSD Top in Place, GOLD Price Ready to Rocket? - 27th May 17
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 27th May 17
BBC Newsnight Falls for FAKE POLLS, Opinion Pollsters Illusion for Mainstream Media to Sell - 27th May 17
UK Local Election Results Forecast for General Election 2017 - 26th May 17
Stock Market & Crude Oil Forecast! - 26th May 17
Opinion Pollsters UK General Election Seats Forecasts 2017 - 26th May 17
Bitcoin and AltCoins Crypto Price Correction - 26th May 17
Bearish Head and Shoulders in EURUSD? - 26th May 17
SELL US Stocks - Massive Market CRASH WARNING! - 26th May 17
EURGBP: A Picture of Elliott Wave Precision - 26th May 17
Credit Downgrades May Prompt Stock Market Capital Shift - 26th May 17
Rosenstein and Mueller: the Regime Change Tag-Team - 25th May 17
Stock Market Top - Are We There Yet? - 25th May 17
Should I Invest My Fortune in Gold? Inaugural Lecture by Dr Brian Lucey - 25th May 17
USD/CAD Continues Decline - 25th May 17
Bitcoin Price Goes Loco! Surges through $2,500 Despite Unclear Fork Issues - 25th May 17
The US-Saudi Arms Deal - Sordid Saudi Signals - 25th May 17
The No.1 Commodity Play In The World Today - 24th May 17
Marks and Spencer Profits Collapse, Latest Retailer Hit by Brexit Inflation Tsunami 2017 - 24th May 17
Why Online Trading Platforms Are Useful for Everyone - 24th May 17
The Stock Market Will Tank Hard - 24th May 17
It’s Better to Buy Gold & Silver When It DOESN’T Feel Good - 24th May 17
Global Warming - Saving Us From Us - 24th May 17
Stock Market Forecast for Next 3 Months - Video - 23rd May 17
Shale Oil & Gas Production Costs Spiral Higher As Monstrous Decline Rates Eat Into Cash Flows - 23rd May 17
The Only Metal Trump Wants More Than Gold - 23rd May 17
America's Southern Heritage is a Threat to the Deep State - 23rd May 17
Manchester Bombing - ISIS Islamic Terrorist Attack Attempt to Influence BrExit Election - 23rd May 17
What an America First Trade Policy Could Mean for the US Dollar - 22nd May 17
Gold and Sillver Markets - Silver Price Sharp Selloff - 22nd May - 22nd May 17
Stock Market Volatile C-Wave - 22nd May 17
Stock Market Trend Forecast and Fear Trading - 22nd May 17
US Dollar Cycle : Deep Dive - 21st May 17
Bitcoin Breaks the $2,000 Mark as Cryptocurrencies Continue to Explode Higher - 21st May 17
Stocks, Commodities and Gold Multi-Market Status - 21st May 17
Stock Market Day Trading Strategies and Brief 20th May 2017 - 21st May 17
DOW Needs to Rally Big or Correction is Next - 20th May 17
EURUSD reaches DO or DIE moment! - 20th May 17
How to Get FREE Walkers Crisps Multi-packs! £5 to £28k Pay Packet Promo - 20th May 17
UK BrExit General Election 2017 - Will Opinion Pollsters Finally Get it Right? - 19th May 17
Gold Mining Junior Stocks GDXJ 2017 Fundamentals - 19th May 17
If China Can Fund Infrastructure With Its Own Credit, So Can We - 19th May 17
Evidence That Stocks are More Overvalued than Ever - 19th May 17
Obamacare May Become Zombiecare In 2018 - 19th May 17
The End of Reflation? Implications for Gold - 19th May 17
Gold and Silver Trading Alert: New Important Technical Development - 19th May 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

US Stock Market Resumes Uptrends

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 May 06, 2017 - 03:37 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The market started the week at SPX 2384. After a rally to SPX 2394 on Monday the market pulled back to 2380 on Wednesday, and retested it on Thursday. Then the market rallied to end the week SPX 2399, its highest level since March 1st. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.0%. Economic reports for the week were generally positive. On the downtick: the Q2 GDP estimate, the WLEI, the PCE, construction spending, ISM manufacturing and the ADP. On the uptick: personal income, auto sales, ISM services, factory orders, monthly payrolls, consumer credit; plus weekly jobless claims, the trade deficit and the unemployment rate all improved. Next week’s highlights: the CPI/PPI, retail sales and wholesale/business inventories.


LONG TERM: uptrend

We continue to believe a Secular growth cycle began in 2016, following 16-years of a Secular crisis cycle. During the crisis cycle we experienced a dotcom bust, 9-11, a war in the Middle East, a housing boom/bust, an international banking crisis, quantitative easing, US debt nearly quadrupling, and the middle class nearly became extinct. In response to this, the US electorate choose a businessman who had a plan and campaigned on Making America Great Again. It’s the right time, hopefully its the right person. If not, they will choose another in four years. Despite some character flaws he has the Saeculum in his favor, and we think he will succeed. If correct the secular growth cycle should last 16-20 years.

The Saeculum also aligns with OEW. We have been labeling the charts with a Primary III bull market underway from the February 2016 low. The count thus far displays subdivisions within Major wave 1 of the 5 Major waves that will create Primary III. Intermediate waves i and ii ended in the spring of 2016. Minor waves 1 and 2, of Int. iii, ended in the fall of 2016. And Minor waves 3 and 4 recently ended in the spring of 2017. Minor wave 5 of Intermediate wave iii should be currently underway.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The recent Minor wave 4 correction, which lasted a bit more than a month, was a bit tricky in that it only corrected about 3%. And the NDX/NAZ did not correct at all. These two sectors, cyclicals and tech, have completely diverged in their wave counts creating a bifurcation in the market. This divergence allows for the possibility that despite the uptrend in the SPX/DOW, it may still be part of Minor wave 4. We consider this an alternate count, and are going with the Minor 5 scenario.

Thus far on a larger time frame we have three waves up from the recent SPX 2329 low: 2361-2345-2399. Using a smaller timeframe we can now count a more detailed three waves up: 2349-2335-2361-2345-2398-2380-2399. This count looks more impulsive than the simple three waves up, suggesting Minor 5 is indeed underway. Medium term support is at the 2385 and 2336 pivots, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots.

SHORT TERM

With the new high on Friday, for this rally from the SPX 2329 low, the key level to watch going forward is SPX 2361. Should this level be broken on the downside then the uptrend is probably a B wave. If not, the next likely target for the SPX is 2500+. Naturally the 2411, 2428 and then 2488 pivots will have to be exceeded to reach that level. But the uptrend is only three weeks old at this point and has plenty of time.

Short term support is at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2361, with resistance at SPX 2401 and the 2411 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week quite overbought. Best to your trading with the French election ahead on Sunday.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mixed on the week for a net loss of 0.1%.

European markets were all higher and gained 2.8%.

The DJ World index gained 0.9%, and the NYSE gained 0.7%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend but lost 0.4%.

Crude is in a downtrend and lost 6.3%.

Gold is in a downtrend and lost 3.3%.

The USD is also in a downtrend and lost 0.4%.

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday: wholesale inventories. Wednesday: export/import prices and the budget deficit. Thursday: weekly jobless claims and the PPI. Friday: the CPI, retail sales, consumer sentiment and business inventories. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

https://caldaro.wordpress.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2017 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife