Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Climate Change Mass Extinction - Birds, Bees and Bugs: Going Going Gone - Richard_Mills
2.A Purrrfect Gold Price Setup! - Peter_Degraaf
3.Who Finances America's Borrowing? Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers Part 2 - F_F_Wiley
4.America’s One-sided Domestic Financial War - Raymond_Matison
5.Gold Price Summer Doldrums - Zeal_LLC
6.Two Key Events Will Unleash Gold - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Billionaire Schools Teacher in NAFTA Trade Talks - Richard_Mills
8.Get Out Of Crypto Cannabis Bubble Before It Pops and Move Into Bargain Basement Miners - Jeb_Handwerger
9.Stock Market Could Pullback for 1-2 weeks, But Medium Term Bullish - Troy_Bombardia
10.G7 Chaos, Central Banks and US Fed Will Drive Stock Prices This Week - Chris_Vermeulen
Last 7 days
Trouble Spotting Market Trends? This Can Help - 22nd Jun 18
Financial Markets Analysis and Trend Forecasts 2018 - A Message from Nadeem Walayat - 21st Jun 18
SPX Bouncing Above Support - 21st Jun 18
Things You Need To Know If You Want To Invest In Bitcoin Now - 21st Jun 18
The NASDAQ’s Outperformance vs. the Dow is Very Bullish - 21st Jun 18
Warning All Investors: Global Stock Market Are Shifting Away From US Price Correlation - 20th Jun 18
Gold GLD ETF Update… Breakdown ? - 20th Jun 18
Short-term Turnaround in Bitcoin Might Not Be What You Think - 19th Jun 18
Stock Market’s Short Term Downside Will be Limited - 19th Jun 18
Natural Gas Setup for 32% Move in UGAZ Fund - 19th Jun 18
Magnus Collective To Empower Automation And Artificial Intelligence - 19th Jun 18
Trump A Bull in a China Shop - 19th Jun 18
Minor Car Accident! What Happens After You Report Your Accident to Your Insurer - 19th Jun 18
US Majors Flush Out A Major Pivot Low and What’s Next - 18th Jun 18
Cocoa Commodities Trading Analysis - 18th Jun 18
Stock Market Consolidating in an Uptrend - 18th Jun 18
Russell Has Gone Up 7 Weeks in a Row. EXTREMELY Bullish for Stocks - 18th Jun 18
What Happens Next to Stocks when Tech Massively Outperforms Utilities and Consumer Staples - 18th Jun 18
The Trillion Dollar Market You’ve Never Heard Of - 18th Jun 18
The Corruption of Capitalism - 17th Jun 18
North Korea, Trade Wars, Precious Metals and Bitcoin - 17th Jun 18
Climate Change and Fish Stocks – Burning Oxygen! - 17th Jun 18
A $1,180 Ticket to NEW Trading Opportunities, FREE! - 16th Jun 18
Gold Bullish on Fed Interest Rate Hike - 16th Jun 18
Respite for Bitcoin Traders Might Be Deceptive - 16th Jun 18
The Euro Crashed Yesterday. Bearish for Euro and Bullish for USD - 15th Jun 18
Inflation Trade, in Progress Since Gold Kicked it Off - 15th Jun 18
Can Saudi Arabia Prevent The Next Oil Shock? - 15th Jun 18
The Biggest Online Gambling Companies - 15th Jun 18
Powell's Excess Reserve Change and Gold - 15th Jun 18
Is This a Big Sign of a Big Stock Market Turn? - 15th Jun 18
Will Italy Sink the EU and Boost Gold? - 15th Jun 18
Bumper Crash! Land Rover Discovery Sport vs Audi - 15th Jun 18
Stock Market Topping Pattern or Just Pause Before Going Higher? - 14th Jun 18
Is the ECB Ending QE a Good Thing? Markets Think So - 14th Jun 18
Yield Curve Continues to Flatten. A Bullish Sign for the Stock Market - 14th Jun 18
How Online Gambling has Impacted the Economy - 14th Jun 18
Crude Oil Price Targeting $58 ppb Before Finding Support - 14th Jun 18
Stock Market Near Another Top? - 14th Jun 18
Thorpe Park REAL Walking Dead Living Nightmare Zombie Car Park Ride Experience! - 14th Jun 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

US Stock Market Resumes Uptrends

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 May 06, 2017 - 03:37 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The market started the week at SPX 2384. After a rally to SPX 2394 on Monday the market pulled back to 2380 on Wednesday, and retested it on Thursday. Then the market rallied to end the week SPX 2399, its highest level since March 1st. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.0%. Economic reports for the week were generally positive. On the downtick: the Q2 GDP estimate, the WLEI, the PCE, construction spending, ISM manufacturing and the ADP. On the uptick: personal income, auto sales, ISM services, factory orders, monthly payrolls, consumer credit; plus weekly jobless claims, the trade deficit and the unemployment rate all improved. Next week’s highlights: the CPI/PPI, retail sales and wholesale/business inventories.


LONG TERM: uptrend

We continue to believe a Secular growth cycle began in 2016, following 16-years of a Secular crisis cycle. During the crisis cycle we experienced a dotcom bust, 9-11, a war in the Middle East, a housing boom/bust, an international banking crisis, quantitative easing, US debt nearly quadrupling, and the middle class nearly became extinct. In response to this, the US electorate choose a businessman who had a plan and campaigned on Making America Great Again. It’s the right time, hopefully its the right person. If not, they will choose another in four years. Despite some character flaws he has the Saeculum in his favor, and we think he will succeed. If correct the secular growth cycle should last 16-20 years.

The Saeculum also aligns with OEW. We have been labeling the charts with a Primary III bull market underway from the February 2016 low. The count thus far displays subdivisions within Major wave 1 of the 5 Major waves that will create Primary III. Intermediate waves i and ii ended in the spring of 2016. Minor waves 1 and 2, of Int. iii, ended in the fall of 2016. And Minor waves 3 and 4 recently ended in the spring of 2017. Minor wave 5 of Intermediate wave iii should be currently underway.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The recent Minor wave 4 correction, which lasted a bit more than a month, was a bit tricky in that it only corrected about 3%. And the NDX/NAZ did not correct at all. These two sectors, cyclicals and tech, have completely diverged in their wave counts creating a bifurcation in the market. This divergence allows for the possibility that despite the uptrend in the SPX/DOW, it may still be part of Minor wave 4. We consider this an alternate count, and are going with the Minor 5 scenario.

Thus far on a larger time frame we have three waves up from the recent SPX 2329 low: 2361-2345-2399. Using a smaller timeframe we can now count a more detailed three waves up: 2349-2335-2361-2345-2398-2380-2399. This count looks more impulsive than the simple three waves up, suggesting Minor 5 is indeed underway. Medium term support is at the 2385 and 2336 pivots, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots.

SHORT TERM

With the new high on Friday, for this rally from the SPX 2329 low, the key level to watch going forward is SPX 2361. Should this level be broken on the downside then the uptrend is probably a B wave. If not, the next likely target for the SPX is 2500+. Naturally the 2411, 2428 and then 2488 pivots will have to be exceeded to reach that level. But the uptrend is only three weeks old at this point and has plenty of time.

Short term support is at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2361, with resistance at SPX 2401 and the 2411 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week quite overbought. Best to your trading with the French election ahead on Sunday.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mixed on the week for a net loss of 0.1%.

European markets were all higher and gained 2.8%.

The DJ World index gained 0.9%, and the NYSE gained 0.7%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend but lost 0.4%.

Crude is in a downtrend and lost 6.3%.

Gold is in a downtrend and lost 3.3%.

The USD is also in a downtrend and lost 0.4%.

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday: wholesale inventories. Wednesday: export/import prices and the budget deficit. Thursday: weekly jobless claims and the PPI. Friday: the CPI, retail sales, consumer sentiment and business inventories. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

https://caldaro.wordpress.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2017 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules