Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Bitcoin War Begins – Bitcoin Cash Rises 50% While Bitcoin Drops $1,000 In 24 Hours - Jeff_Berwick
2.Fragile Stock Market Bull in a China Shop -James_Quinn
3.Sheffield Leafy Suburbs Tree Felling's Triggering House Prices CRASH! - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Bank of England Hikes UK Interest Rates 100%, Reversing BREXIT PANIC Cut! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Government Finances and Gold - Cautionary Tale told in Four Charts - Michael_J_Kosares
6.Gold Stocks Winter Rally - Zeal_LLC
7.The Stock Market- From Here to Infinity? - Plunger
8.Ethereum (ETH/USD) – bullish breakout of large symmetrical triangle looks to be getting closer - MarketsToday
9.Electronic Gold: The Deep State’s Corrupt Threat to Human Prosperity and Freedom - Stewart_Dougherty
10.Finally, The Fall Of The House Of Saud - Jim_Willie_CB
Last 7 days
Stock Market Lemmings Are Heading Towards The Cliff… Again - 24th Nov 17
The Precious Metals Bears' Fear of Fridays - 23rd Nov 17
UK Economic Austerity, Bloodletting and Incompetence - 23rd Nov 17
Stocks Are At The End Of The Line – Prepare Yourself Now! - 23rd Nov 17
Some Traders Hit. Some Traders Miss. Here's How to be Part of the 1st Group - 22nd Nov 17
Geopolitical Risk Highest “In Four Decades” – Global Gold Demand to Remain Robust - 22nd Nov 17
Relationship between Crude Oil Price and Oil Stocks - 22nd Nov 17
Harry Dent’s Gold Prediction Invalidated - 22nd Nov 17
Gold Sector is On a Long-term Buy Signal - 21st Nov 17
Saudi Arabia and Israeli Alliance Targets Iran - 21st Nov 17
What History Says for Gold Stocks in 2018-2019 - 21st Nov 17
US Bond Market Operation Twist by Another Name and Method? - 21st Nov 17
Learning from Money Supply of the 1980s: The Power and Irony of “MDuh” - 20th Nov 17
Trump’s Asia Strategy, Goals and Realities - 20th Nov 17
Crude Oil – General Market Link - 20th Nov 17
Bitcoin Price Blasts Through $8,000… In Zimbabwe Tops $13,500 As Mugabe Regime Crumbles - 20th Nov 17
Stock Market More Correction Ahead? - 19th Nov 17
Universal Credits Christmas Scrooge Nightmare for Weekly Pay Recipients - 18th Nov 17
Perspective on the Gold/Oil Ratio, Macro Fundamentals and a Gold Sector Bottom - 18th Nov 17
Facebook Traders: Tech Giant + Technical Analysis = Thumbs Up - 18th Nov 17
Games Betting System For NCAA Basketball Sports Betting - Know Your Betting Limits - 18th Nov 17
Universal Credit Doomsday for Tax Credits Cash ISA Savers, Here's What to Do - 18th Nov 17
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals Q3 2017 - 17th Nov 17
The Social Security Inflation Lag Calendar - Partial Indexing - 17th Nov 17
Mystery of Inflation and Gold - 17th Nov 17
Stock Market Ready To Pull The Rug Out From Under You! - 17th Nov 17
Crude Oil – Gold Link in November 2017 - 17th Nov 17
Play Free Online Games and Save Money Free Virtual Online Games - 17th Nov 17
Stock Market Crash Omens & Predictions: Another Day Another Lie - 16th Nov 17
Deepening Crisis In Hyper-inflationary Venezuela and Zimbabwe - 16th Nov 17
Announcing Free Trader's Workshop: Battle-Tested Tools to Boost Your Trading Confidence - 16th Nov 17
Instructions to Stop a Dispossession Home Sale and How to Purchase Astutely at Abandonment Home - 16th Nov 17
Trump’s Asia Tour: From Old Conflicts to New Prospects - 16th Nov 17
Bonds And Stocks Will Crash Together In The Next Crisis (Meanwhile, Bond Yields Are Going Up) - 16th Nov 17
A Generational Reset That Will Redistribute Wealth to the Bottom 60% Is Near - 16th Nov 17
Ethereum (ETH/USD) – bullish breakout of large symmetrical triangle looks to be getting closer - 16th Nov 17
Gold’s Long-term Analogies - 16th Nov 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Traders Workshop

US Stock Market Resumes Uptrends

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 May 06, 2017 - 03:37 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The market started the week at SPX 2384. After a rally to SPX 2394 on Monday the market pulled back to 2380 on Wednesday, and retested it on Thursday. Then the market rallied to end the week SPX 2399, its highest level since March 1st. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.0%. Economic reports for the week were generally positive. On the downtick: the Q2 GDP estimate, the WLEI, the PCE, construction spending, ISM manufacturing and the ADP. On the uptick: personal income, auto sales, ISM services, factory orders, monthly payrolls, consumer credit; plus weekly jobless claims, the trade deficit and the unemployment rate all improved. Next week’s highlights: the CPI/PPI, retail sales and wholesale/business inventories.


LONG TERM: uptrend

We continue to believe a Secular growth cycle began in 2016, following 16-years of a Secular crisis cycle. During the crisis cycle we experienced a dotcom bust, 9-11, a war in the Middle East, a housing boom/bust, an international banking crisis, quantitative easing, US debt nearly quadrupling, and the middle class nearly became extinct. In response to this, the US electorate choose a businessman who had a plan and campaigned on Making America Great Again. It’s the right time, hopefully its the right person. If not, they will choose another in four years. Despite some character flaws he has the Saeculum in his favor, and we think he will succeed. If correct the secular growth cycle should last 16-20 years.

The Saeculum also aligns with OEW. We have been labeling the charts with a Primary III bull market underway from the February 2016 low. The count thus far displays subdivisions within Major wave 1 of the 5 Major waves that will create Primary III. Intermediate waves i and ii ended in the spring of 2016. Minor waves 1 and 2, of Int. iii, ended in the fall of 2016. And Minor waves 3 and 4 recently ended in the spring of 2017. Minor wave 5 of Intermediate wave iii should be currently underway.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The recent Minor wave 4 correction, which lasted a bit more than a month, was a bit tricky in that it only corrected about 3%. And the NDX/NAZ did not correct at all. These two sectors, cyclicals and tech, have completely diverged in their wave counts creating a bifurcation in the market. This divergence allows for the possibility that despite the uptrend in the SPX/DOW, it may still be part of Minor wave 4. We consider this an alternate count, and are going with the Minor 5 scenario.

Thus far on a larger time frame we have three waves up from the recent SPX 2329 low: 2361-2345-2399. Using a smaller timeframe we can now count a more detailed three waves up: 2349-2335-2361-2345-2398-2380-2399. This count looks more impulsive than the simple three waves up, suggesting Minor 5 is indeed underway. Medium term support is at the 2385 and 2336 pivots, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots.

SHORT TERM

With the new high on Friday, for this rally from the SPX 2329 low, the key level to watch going forward is SPX 2361. Should this level be broken on the downside then the uptrend is probably a B wave. If not, the next likely target for the SPX is 2500+. Naturally the 2411, 2428 and then 2488 pivots will have to be exceeded to reach that level. But the uptrend is only three weeks old at this point and has plenty of time.

Short term support is at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2361, with resistance at SPX 2401 and the 2411 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week quite overbought. Best to your trading with the French election ahead on Sunday.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mixed on the week for a net loss of 0.1%.

European markets were all higher and gained 2.8%.

The DJ World index gained 0.9%, and the NYSE gained 0.7%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend but lost 0.4%.

Crude is in a downtrend and lost 6.3%.

Gold is in a downtrend and lost 3.3%.

The USD is also in a downtrend and lost 0.4%.

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday: wholesale inventories. Wednesday: export/import prices and the budget deficit. Thursday: weekly jobless claims and the PPI. Friday: the CPI, retail sales, consumer sentiment and business inventories. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

https://caldaro.wordpress.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2017 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife