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Trading Lessons

The Final Probe in SPX May be Underway

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 May 16, 2017 - 03:16 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

SPX futures are higher, suggesting the final probe to the top may be underway. At the moment, 2415.05 appears to be a reasonable target. Although May 26-29 appears to be the time target for the Master Cycle low, another important Cyclical anniversary is coming up. June 6, 2017 (2017.43) happens to be exactly 17.2 years from the March 24, 2000 (2000.230) high of 1553.11. Cycles are not always exact. For example, 8.6 years from the March 24, 2000 high was October 29, 2008. The 2008 low occurred on November 21, exactly 17 market days later. We are within 15 market days of the June 6 anniversary, so the top may happen at any time. Can it stretch to June 6? Possibly, yes. However, SPX is very late in the current Master Cycle.


ZeroHedge remarks, “In a replica of Monday's early trading, European shares are down, this time led by health-care stocks even as the Euro surges above 1.1050, the highest level since the US election. Asian equities rose, while S&P futures were unchanged although we expect the ramp to kick in any second, and take the NASDAQ to another all time high. Meanwhile, the US dollar weakened for a fifth day after a WaPo report cited anonymous sources who said President Trump revealed classified information to Russia’s top diplomat.”

VIX futures are lower, but no new low. The current Master Cycle low (May 9) appears to have occurred 20 market days before the June 6 date. This is appropriate, as VIX tends to be a leading indicator.

USD futures appear to have made a new low of 98.12 this morning. The sell signal on the dollar is in full force. We should see a decline to the Cycle Bottom at 94.73, at least. H&S target are often minimums, so it may sink quite a bit lower.

TNX appears positive this morning, but the decline doesn’t appear complete. We may expect to see the next Master Cycle low within the next week. There is a probable Head & Shoulders neckline at the mid-Cycle line that suggests a minimum target at 22.21. Its more likely that the Cycle Bottom may be touched before the decline is over.

Regards,

Tony

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As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals.

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

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