Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Crude Oil and Water: How Climate Change is Threatening our Two Most Precious Commodities - Richard_Mills
2.The Potential $54 Trillion Cost Of The Fed's Planned Interest Rate Increases - Dan_Amerman
3.Best Cash ISA Savings for Rising UK Interest Rates and High Inflation - March 2018 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Fed Interest Hikes, US Dollar, and Gold - Zeal_LLC
5.What Happens Next after February’s Stock Market Selloff - Troy_Bombardia
6.The 'Beast from the East' UK Extreme Snow Weather - Sheffield Day 2 - N_Walayat
7.Currencies Will Be ‘Flushed Down the Toilet’ Triggering a ‘Mad Rush into Gold’ - MoneyMetals
8.Significant Decline In Stocks On The Cards! -Enda_Glynn
9.Land Rover Discovery Sport Extreme Driving "Beast from the East" Snow Weather Test - N_Walayat
10.SILVER Large Specualtors Net Short Position 15 Year Anniversary - Clive_Maund
Last 7 days
Watch This Group Signal Stock Market Trend Changes - 22nd Mar 18
Stocks are Gapping Beneath the Trendline Support - 22nd Mar 18
Fed Action Casts Shadow on Bullish Case for Stocks - 22nd Mar 18
A Strong Economy and Weak Stock Market is Bullish for Stocks - 22nd Mar 18
Fed Raises US Interest Rates 25bp – Where Are We In The Stock Market Cycle? - 22nd Mar 18
Why Spotify Will Likely Surge During Its IPO - 22nd Mar 18
SY Police Arrest Woman for Blowing Trumpet at Sheffield Tree Felling Protest - 22nd Mar 18
Facebook: The Anti-Social Network Covert Data Gathering - 21st Mar 18
Additional Signs for Gold and Silver Amid Increasing FOMC Tension - 21st Mar 18
Credit Concerns In U.S. Growing As LIBOR OIS Surges to 2009 High - 21st Mar 18
Stock Markets Are Flat-to-lower Before the FOMC - 21st Mar 18
Will Powell’s Actions Pop Stock Market Perfection - 21st Mar 18
Economic Moral Hazards of the International Criminal Court - and Philippines Withdrawal - 21st Mar 18
Larry Kudlow vs. Vladimir Putin on Gold - 21st Mar 18
Trump Builds Economy and War Machine - 21st Mar 18
This Stock Market "Illusion" Can Destroy Once-Vibrant Portfolios - 21st Mar 18
Gold Short-term Pull Back in Progress - 20th Mar 18
Stocks Appear to be Under Pressure - 20th Mar 18
Time To Eliminate Your Wall Street Tax? - 20th Mar 18
The Beast from the East Snow, UK Roads Driving Car Accidents - 20th Mar 18
Can Bitcoin Price Rally Continue After Paypal Fake FUD Attack? - 19th Mar 18
2018 Reversal Dates for Gold, Silver and Gold Stocks - 19th Mar 18
This Tech Breakthrough Could Save The Electric Car Market - 19th Mar 18
Stocks Set to Open Lower, Should You Buy? - 19th Mar 18
The Wealth Machine That Rising Interest Rates Create Conflict With The National Debt - 19th Mar 18
Affiliate Marketing Tips and Network Recommendations - 19th Mar 18
Do Stocks Bull Market Tops Need Breadth Divergences? - 19th Mar 18
Doritos Instant £500 Win! Why Super Market Shelves are Empty - 19th Mar 18
Bonds, Inflation & the Market Amigos - 19th Mar 18
US Housing Real Estate Market and Banking Pressures Are Building - 19th Mar 18
Stock Market Bulls Last Stand? - 18th Mar 18
Putin Flip-Flops Like A Drunken Whore On Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Legalization - 18th Mar 18
How to Legally Manipulate Interest Rates - 18th Mar 18
Return of Stock Market Volatility Amidst Political Chaos and Uncertain Economy - 18th Mar 18
Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast, Paypal FUD Fake Cryptocurrency Warning - 17th Mar 18
Strong Earnings Growth is Bullish for Stocks - 17th Mar 18
The War on the Post Office - 17th Mar 18
GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 16th Mar 18
Nationalism, Not the Russians, got Trump Elected - 16th Mar 18
Has Bitcoin Bought It? - 16th Mar 18
Crude Oil Price – Who Wants the Triangle? - 16th Mar 18
PayPal Cease Trading Crypto Currency Bitcoin Warning Email Sophisticated Fake Scam? - 16th Mar 18
EUR/USD – Something Old, Something New and… Something Blue - 16th Mar 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Urgent Stock Market Message

Copper, Oil, Gold and US Stocks: Markets Big Picture Status

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017 Sep 08, 2017 - 01:48 PM GMT

By: Gary_Tanashian


Sometimes I like to trot these lumbering monthlies out so we can quiet everything down and see where various markets are slowly heading.

First of all, as I go down with my ‘strengthening US dollar’ ship*, I also mal-projected copper’s upside. I’d felt that $3/lb. would cap Doctor Copper because it is very clear lateral resistance at a handy 38% Fib retrace.**

* Well, insofar as I own UUP and EUO, it has not been fruitful; but that is the whole point because the positions are just a partial hedge against what has been a very successful long deployment in items rising against the declining USD. Still not thinking of dropping long-USD positioning, and I remember how long it took to see my bullish Treasury bond view get proven out against the herds earlier this year.

** Insert here the usual stuff about targets and resistance points being objectives, not stop signs.

Crude Oil sported a bullish looking pattern last year but has faded this year. The pattern is still viable. I am not currently an oil bull, but if at any time you see WTIC go above 55, plan on 75.

Silver is attempting to break the 2016-2017 downtrend line but is at a long-term resistance zone (see Doctor Copper above). Our short-term target – based on a daily chart pattern – is up to 18.50; but that does not break resistance. I am constructive on silver beyond any near-term reactions.

Another view of gold’s monthly situation, with more detail provided in yesterday’s post… Gold’s Vulnerability Remains. I am bullish, but the noted resistance will be tough to deal with and if peace breaks out, all the casino patrons buying because of the lunatic in North Korea will be cleaned out.

The S&P 500 and HUI show at risk and developing bullish, respectively. The risks to the stock market* were defined in this post on August 11: Potential Pivots Upcoming for Stocks and Gold. As for the HUI Gold Bugs index, let’s just say that it has long-since fulfilled its downside objectives and is working on a pivot to big picture bullish.

* These do not include the ‘years ending in 7’ hype, which is all too loudly being broadcast lately and if anything, would serve the bulls, not the bears. Look no further than the ‘1929 analog’ crap from a few years ago that utterly failed to be bearish.

Now let’s check in on the top caller and the markets he pimps…

Dow really needs to shake everyone out with a drop to the 18,000s. FYI however, the biggest picture bull market does not end unless 13,500 gets taken out. That would be one hell of a bear within a bull and then we’d see how well the ‘stocks for the long run’ crowd can stick to its guns. For now, if a correction comes about let’s only project the 18,000s.

Nasdaq 100… words are really not necessary. 4800, which was once an upside target of ours, is key support.

The Semiconductor index has been an upside leader ever since we got our positive Semi Equipment ‘booking’ signals in January of 2013. Typical of the stock market, SOX then went on to crush even our best target, which I did not even fully believe at the time it was projected.

Russell 2000 as well. I did not believe the 1375 target and that was my bias, which I’ve learned to keep well segregated, doing the thinking for me.

It bears repeating that the above are slow moving big pictures. The short and intermediate-terms can make many moves contrary to what the monthly charts have laid out. But it is good to keep different time frames in view because perspective and frame of reference are only everything in noisy stock markets replete with chartists either wittingly or unwittingly promoting their already conceived notions. After all, there are many different technical angles through which to view any single market!

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 40-55 page weekly report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at and Also, you can follow via Twitter ;@BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits, RSS or sign up to receive posts directly by email (right sidebar).

By Gary Tanashian

© 2017 Copyright  Gary Tanashian - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Gary Tanashian Archive

© 2005-2018 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules