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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Summary of Financial Markets and Economic Forecasts

Stock-Markets / Summary Forecasts & Analysis Mar 25, 2007 - 07:17 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

With so many differing opinions on market direction, each supported by good solid analysis, the reader can become lost in which way appears the most probable.

Therefore the following represent the Editor of the Market Oracle, Nadeem Walayat's summary forecasts of the most probable outcomes, as derived by technical analysis and research, much of which are published as articles to this site. New forecasts & comments to exisitng forecasts are added on each new update.

Commodity Markets
Gold

Gold Bull Market set to resume, targeting a rally to initially $847 and then $900 by the end of this year.

25/3/07 - Despite recent rally, gold looking weak in the immediate term, though has plenty of time to fulfill the forecast.

21st Jan 07
$636

Crude Oil Crude Oil to fall sharply during early 2007. This will represent a good long-term buying opportunity .Expectations are for Crude Oil to move in a wide trading range of between $80 and $40 for some years before then next leg up to $100,
14th Dec 06
$64
Buy and Sell Gold On-line Securely
Uranium

The Uranium bull market shows no signs of halting its trend, next target is $100, then $120, before the end of this year.

25/3/07 - Uranium passed $100

3rd Feb 07
$90
Coffee

Coffee Bull Market Brewing - Coffee to make a base and target a rally to $152 and then eventually $172

20/3/07 - Still not made the base, needs more time to develop.

19th Feb 07
$113
 
Currencies
GBP/USD

Short-Term - The British Pound is targeting a significant downtrend to $1.8600 by early May 2007. Resistance to negate the downtrend is at $1.9661.

21/3/07 - The rally to beyond 1.9661 has negated this short-term forecast.

4th March 07
$1.9430
GBP/USD

Long-Term - It is only a matter of time before the British Pound breaks above $2.00 to target a new high of possibly $2.10. In the meanwhile expect range bound activity between $1.99 and $1.80. The Breakout to $2.10 may prove to be short-lived and could coincidewith the end of the GBP Bull market as has occurred on previous runs to $2.00.

3rd Jan 07
$1.9500
 
Economics
US Economy

The same old battle between inflation and deflation expectations, with currently inflation taking the upper hand. The economy is expected to continue to slow into end 2007. The US should end the year with between 2.25% and 2.75% GDP growth. Which by US standards is low.

15th Feb 07
US Economy

The UK economy like the UK Housing market is remarkably resilient.I expect the UK economy to continue growing during 2007, regardless of what happens in the US, and is targeting healthy growth of between 2.5% and 3% GDP by year end.

15th Feb 07
 
Housing Markets / Real Estate
US Housing

The Housing market is expected to remain weak going into the Summer when there is a possibility of a bounce, i.e. stablisaition for the period going into September 07. Thereafter the market may again resume the downtrend that has been in force for over 12 months.

20/3/07 - Subprime hits headlines in Feb / March, weakness continues as forecast into Summer

5th Feb 07
UK Housing The UK Housing market is expected to peak in the summer with annualised growth approaching or exceeding 10%, thereafter the market is expected to slow and end the year Up in the range 5 to 7%. It is too early to say if the UK will follow the US into a property slump in 2008, but all bubbles do eventually burst.
25th Feb 07
 
Interest Rates & Bond Markets
US Int Rates This is a really tough one, as I believe we are either at a juncture or approaching a juncture. Therefore there may be 1 more rise in US interest rates before the cutting cycle begins, or they next move will be a cut. The cutting cycle depends on inflation, as if the US economy enters a period of stagflation, then the room for cuts will be very tight.
8th March 07
5.25%
UK Int Rates

UK Interest rates to rise to 5.75% by about Sept 07, as the Bank of England does battle with inflation.

15/3/07 - Next rise to 5.5% is likely in May.

7th Nov 06
4.75%
 
Politics & Social
Tony Blair When will Tony Blair Leave Office ? - After the May 07 Elections, barring any thing going wrong with Gordon Brown. Tony Blair is expected to Step down between Mid June and Mid July 2007.
17th Jan 07
Iran

Military Strikes Against Iran ? - There has been talk about strikes / military action against Iran for some 2 years now. Though with the US building naval forces up in the Gulf, the risks have increased somewhat. However the probability is still for NO strikes against Iran this year.

18/3/07 - Kidnapped British Navy Personnel, despite the rhetoric unlikely to impact the scenerio of no action against Iran. They will probably be released within a month or so. There is NO chance of any British attempt at rescue, ZERO.

3rd Feb 07
 
Stock Markets
Dow Jones Indst Av. Short-Term - The Dow Jones is expected to rally into Late April / Early May, towards its All time high.
15th Mar 07
12160
Dow Jones Indst Av.

Long-Term - Volatile trend during the year, Dow Jones to end 2007 up for the year, unable to say how high as there are negative drags on parts of the indices such as the Housing market slump which is expected to continue at least into mid-year. Therefore a low in the Dow Jones can be expected mid-year. But fundamentally unlike many analysts, I just don't see the stock market as being expensive.

22/3/07 - Held up strongly during the recent sell off, though major test in May / June still due, will determine how strong the Dow will be going into the 2nd half of 2007/

2nd Jan 07
12463
FTSE 100 Short-term - FTSE is targeting a rally to 6450 by late April / Early May. Expect 6000 to hold on any short-term weakness as heavy support in that region.
13th Mar 06
6160
FTSE 100 Long-term - FTSE's New year rally to peak and be followed by a fall in the FTSE to 6000 by March 07, next a rally to early May 07, and another decline towards 6000 by July 07. A strong rally into the end year will follow , with a target of 7000, a gain of some 9% for the year.
29 Dec 06
6221
Japan Japan is finally recovering from 10 years of deflation with signs of economic activity picking up on the back of China's growth. The Japanese stock market is probably one of the fairest priced of the developed worlds stock markets and continues to target a trend to 20,000 this year..
2nd Jan 07
17225
China

Shanghai Index to be weak first quarter, then should rally for much of the year to continue its multi-year bullish trend on the back of a strong economy and profits growth.

7/3/07 - Sell off in late Feb was a good buying opportunity - Expect more selling around mid year for another op.

2nd Jan 07
2675
India

I expect India's Bombay Stock Exchange Index to be much weaker than China, due to poor infrastructure. And same as with China, I expect a weak first quarter, and a weaker rally into the year end for possibly a small gain for the year. Though I would view any significant sell off in the mid-year as a good buying opportunity for the long-run

7/3/07 - India lagging China, more weakness expected. Watch mid-year sell off for possibly buying opp.

2nd Jan 07
13800

 

By Nadeem Walayat, The Editor
MarketOracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2007 The Market Oracle- All Rights Reserved. Any republication without the written permission of The Market Oracle is Strictly Prohibited.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Comments within the text should not be construed as specific recommendations to buy or sell securities. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities. We do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our forecasts.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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