Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
IBM - Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Stocks - 25th May 19
Seasonal Dysfunction: Why Generations of Gold and Silver Investors Are Having Such Difficulty - 25th May 19
Employment - The Good and the Bad of Job Automation - 25th May 19
Gold Mining Mid-Tier Stocks Fundamentals - 25th May 19
Buy This Pick-and-Shovel 5G Stock Before It Takes Off - 25th May 19
China Hang Seng Stocks Index Collapses and Commodities - 24th May 19
Costco Corp. (COST): Finding Opportunity in Five Minutes or Less - 24th May 19
How Free Bets Have Impacted the Online Casino Industry - 24th May 19
This Ultimate Formula Will Help You Avoid Dividend Cutting Stocks - 24th May 19
Benefits of a Lottery Online Account - 24th May 19
Technical Analyst: Gold Price Weakness Should Be Short Term - 24th May 19
Silver Price Looking Weaker than Gold - 24th May 19
Nigel Farage's Brexit Party EU Elections Seats Results Forecast - 24th May 19
Powerful Signal from Gold GDX - 24th May 19
Eye Opening Currency Charts – Why Precious Metals Are Falling - 23rd May 19
Netflix Has 175 Days Left to Pull Off a Miracle… or It’s All Over - 23rd May 19
Capitalism Works, Ravenous Capitalism Doesn’t - 23rd May 19
The Euro Is Bidding Its Time: A Reversal at Hand? - 23rd May 19
Gold Demand Rose 7% in Q1 2019. A Launching Pad Higher for Gold? - 23rd May 19
Global Economic Tensions Translate Into Oil Price Volatility - 22nd May 19
The Coming Pension Crisis Is So Big That It’s a Problem for Everyone - 22nd May 19
Crude Oil, Hot Stocks, and Currencies – Markets III - 22nd May 19
The No.1 Energy Stock for 2019 - 22nd May 19
Brexit Party and Lib-Dems Pull Further Away from Labour and Tories in Latest Opinion Polls - 22nd May 19
The Deep State vs Donald Trump - US vs Them Part 2 - 21st May 19
Deep State & Financial Powers Worry about Alternative Currencies - 21st May 19
Gold’s Exciting Boredom - 21st May 19
Trade War Fears Again, Will Stocks Resume the Downtrend? - 21st May 19
Buffett Mistake Costs Him $4.3 Billion This Year—Here’s What Every Investor Can Learn from It - 21st May 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update - Video - 20th May 19
A Brief History of Financial Entropy - 20th May 19
Gold, MMT, Fiat Money Inflation In France - 20th May 19
WAR - Us versus Them Narrative - 20th May 19
US - Iran War Safe-haven Reasons to Own Gold - 20th May 19
How long does Google have to reference a website? - 20th May 19
Tory Leadership Contest - Will Michael Gove Stab Boris Johnson in the Back Again? - 19th May 19
Stock Market Counter-trend Rally - 19th May 19
Will Stock Market “Sell in May, Go Away” Lead to a Correction… or a Crash? - 19th May 19
US vs. Global Stocks Sector Rotation – What Next? Part 1 - 19th May 19
BrExit Party EarthQuake Could Win it 150 MP's at Next UK General Election! - 18th May 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update - 18th May 19
US Economy to Die a Traditional Death… Inflation Is Going to Move Higher - 18th May 19
Trump’s Trade War Is Good for These 3 Dividend Stocks - 18th May 19
GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals Update - 17th May 19
Stock Markets Rally Hard – Is The Volatility Move Over? - 17th May 19
The Use of Technical Analysis for Forex Traders - 17th May 19
Brexit Party Set to Storm EU Parliament Elections - Seats Forecast - 17th May 19
Is the Trade War a Catalyst for Gold? - 17th May 19
This Is a Recession Indicator No One Is Talking About—and It’s Flashing Red - 17th May 19
War! Good or Bad for Stocks? - 17th May 19
How Many Seats Will Brexit Party Win - EU Parliament Elections Forecast 2019 - 16th May 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

U.S. House Prices Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021

10 Years Ago Today a Stocks Bear Market Started

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Oct 19, 2017 - 11:25 AM GMT

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Stock-Markets

Yes, much has recently been published about the 10-year anniversary of the 2007~08 credit market crash and many people are trying to make comparisons between then and now.  Some of this information is valid and factual.  For example, the amount of debt now is much higher than the debt levels in 2004~08.  This would lead some to consider the scope of any global debt related issues to be much larger and more dangerous than in 2007.  Additionally, the types of levels of debt have begun to froth back into the dangerous and risky derivatives markets, ARMs and MBSs.  Although, we keep hearing, “this time it’s different”.


Last week ActiveTradingPartners.com published a research document that illustrated some of our newest modeling tools.  The consensus analysis was that the bullish trend should continue for a while still, yet it will likely be more moderate in nature.  Price volatility should continue to expand over the next few weeks as price rotation becomes more evident.  There is a potential near October 12th and October 30th for a volatility spike to happen in the markets.  This, most likely, would result in a moderately deep price correction or rollover.  Overall, we remain cautiously bullish for the US majors and continue to be wary of weakness that may creep into the markets.  In other words, we continue to believe the markets will continue to attempt to push higher for a few more weeks at least – yet we are very cautious of any potential weakness or extended volatility because we believe this market could turn on a dime.

There are a number of factors that are starting to affect the markets going forward.  Two of the most critical are uncertainty with regards to geo-politicial events and leadership and the other is the global central banks.  Right now, it appears everyone is living high on the debt cycles that have been perpetuated over the past 8+ years as well as the run in asset valuations (homes, land, equities and others).  This run has created a scenario where many people, many of them the under 40yo millennials, have leveraged themselves quite extensively with student loans, auto loans, home loans, credit card and other revolving debt.  These are, in our opinion, the segment of the consumer market that will be the early warning signs for any new crisis.

Rather than go into detail regarding debt levels and delinquencies that are stacking up all over the globe, we will focus on the most simple concept for investors to identify – the failed top rotation of 2007 and how it will likely relate to current price activity.

The failed top rotation in 2007 formed after an extended run higher and as volatility began to increase dramatically.  We believe a similar type of top formation will likely form in the US markets should any new rotational trend reversal form over the next few weeks/months.  This also falls in line with our “moderate bullish trend – yet cautious” analysis of the current trend.  Take a look at this chart of the NASDAQ in 2007-08 and pay attention to the price rotation that occurred over 4~6 months before the crisis event really began to unfold.

In comparison, take a look at the most recent NQ data for 2017.  The length of the moves on the current chart are extended (span a greater amount of time), yet the moves are very similar.  The double-bottom formation in early 2017 is unique and identifies key support near 5550.  Any similar failed top formation would begin with increased price volatility, resulting in a VIX Spike, as well as the expanded price congestion that is associated with higher volume repositioning in the markets.  Notice that in 2007, the volume suddenly spiked higher near the middle of October as the volatility expanded.  We would expect to see the same thing happen currently if this failed top pattern unfolds again.

As many of you are aware, it is impossible to accurately time and predict major tops/bottoms in the markets.  The best we can hope for is to be aware of potential events before they happen and to be prepared.  That is why we dedicate our research to delivering timely and accurate data to all ActiveTradingPartners.com members as well as delivering accurate trading signals and daily market commentary.  ActiveTradingPartners.com is our premier solution for active traders who want to take advantage of timely and accurate market signals and turning points.  Please take a moment to review our services for active traders.

In closing, we wanted to highlight one of the most concerning setups we can use to illustrate the potential for future volatility and price rotation in the US majors (and possibly global markets).  The Metals markets are a key element in protecting against fear, inflation or deflation as well as major market collapse.  When the metals markets are moving higher, there is typically a measured amount of fear or concern that is entering the markets.  These types of moves can often be signs to investors that volatility or underlying events could be at play as smart money moves into long metals positions.

Our analysis of the Metals markets shows we are setting up for a Wave 5 move higher which we believe could be a very dramatic move.

If you would like to know what ATP is all about and if you like this type of market analysis/research, then visit our web site today to learn how we help active traders understand the markets, actively trade and generate profits.  The markets won’t wait for you to decide when to protect your positions.  Isn’t it time you invested in your future success with www.ActiveTradingPartners.com

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com – Daily Market Forecast Video & ETFs
www.ActiveTradingPartners.com – Stock & 3x ETFs

Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading site TheGoldAndOilGuy.com.  There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method.  For 7 years Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, oil, and silver in both bull and bear markets.  Subscribers to his service depend on Chris' uniquely consistent investment opportunities that carry exceptionally low risk and high return.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this report should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any securities mentioned. Technical Traders Ltd., its owners and the author of this report are not registered broker-dealers or financial advisors. Before investing in any securities, you should consult with your financial advisor and a registered broker-dealer. Never make an investment based solely on what you read in an online or printed report, including this report, especially if the investment involves a small, thinly-traded company that isn’t well known. Technical Traders Ltd. and the author of this report has been paid by Cardiff Energy Corp. In addition, the author owns shares of Cardiff Energy Corp. and would also benefit from volume and price appreciation of its stock. The information provided here within should not be construed as a financial analysis but rather as an advertisement. The author’s views and opinions regarding the companies featured in reports are his own views and are based on information that he has researched independently and has received, which the author assumes to be reliable. Technical Traders Ltd. and the author of this report do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any content of this report, nor its fitness for any particular purpose. Lastly, the author does not guarantee that any of the companies mentioned in the reports will perform as expected, and any comparisons made to other companies may not be valid or come into effect.

Chris Vermeulen Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules