Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19
Tommy Robinson Looks Set to Become New UKIP Leader - 16th Mar 19
Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - 16th Mar 19
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult - 16th Mar 19
UKIP Brexit Facebook Groups Reveling in the New Zealand Terror Attacks Blaming Muslim Victims - 16th Mar 19
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index - 16th Mar 19
Islamophobic Hate Preachers Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins have Killed UKIP and Brexit - 16th Mar 19
Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally - 15th Mar 19
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 - 15th Mar 19
Setting up a Business Just Got Easier - 15th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video - 15th Mar 19
Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 - 15th Mar 19
UK Weather SHOCK - Trees Dropping Branches onto Cars in Stormy Winds - Sheffield - 15th Mar 19
Best Time to Trade Forex - 15th Mar 19
Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof - 14th Mar 19
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? - 14th Mar 19
US Conservatism - 14th Mar 19
Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading - 14th Mar 19
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - 14th Mar 19
Why Walmart Will Crush Amazon - 14th Mar 19
2019 Economic Predictions - 14th Mar 19
Tax Avoidance Bills Sent to Thousands of Workers - 14th Mar 19
The Exponential Stocks Bull Market Explained - Video - 13th Mar 19
TSP Recession Indicator - Criss-Cross, Flip-Flop and Remembering 1966 - 13th Mar 19
Stock Investors Beware The Signs Of Recession / Deflation - 13th Mar 19
Is the Stock Market Still in a Bear Market? - 13th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - 13th Mar 19
Gold Up-to-Date' COT Report: A Maddening Déjà Vu - 12th Mar 19
Save Fintech? Ban Short Selling. It's Not That Simple - 12th Mar 19
Palladium Blowup Could Expose Scam of Gold & Silver Futures - 12th Mar 19
Next Recession: Concentrating Future Losses & Bringing Them Forward In Time As Profits - 12th Mar 19
The Shift of the Philippine Peso Regime - 12th Mar 19
Theresa May BrExit Back Stab Deal Counting Down to Resignation, Tory Leadership Election - 12th Mar 19
Phase 1 of Stock Market Correction - 11th Mar 19
Long Awaited Stock Market Pullback has Finally Arrived - 11th Mar 19
US Presidential Cycle and the Stock Market - Video - 11th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - 11th Mar 19
Chinese Economic Data Shakes the Global Stock Markets - 11th Mar 19
The Fed Is Playing a Dangerous Game - 11th Mar 19
The Stock Market Has Called the Fed’s Bluff, What’s Next? - 11th Mar 19
Turkey Holiday Bazaar Extreme Jewelry Price Haggling - Fethiye Market - 11th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth

The New US-Chinese Globalization Opportunity

Politics / GeoPolitics Nov 17, 2017 - 12:59 PM GMT

By: Dan_Steinbock

Politics While US postwar policies in Asia are shifting, a new Sino-US historical opportunity has emerged. US and Chinese visions of globalization could still prove complementary.

President Trump’s grueling 12-day Asia tour took place amid a worrisome historical moment. Since the mid-2010s, global economic integration - as measured by trade, investment and migration - has come to a standstill. Trade has been falling. Investment continues to stagnate. And slower migration has given rise to elevated global displacement and refugee crises - the worst since 1945.


After Japan, South Korea, China and Vietnam, Trump attended the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in Da Nang, Vietnam, followed by the 50th Anniversary of ASEAN in Manila.

It was the two leaders’ speeches in the Vietnam that seemed to leave room for an emerging opportunity – a new kind of globalization.

Competing views – only part of the story

In a defiant address, President Trump told the APEC meeting that the US would no longer tolerate "chronic trade abuses.” In turn, President Xi announced that globalization was irreversible.

In his speech, Trump complained about trade imbalances, arguing that America had lowered market barriers and ended tariffs, whereas other countries had not responded in kind. “Such practices hurt many people in our country,” he lamented.

Trump believed that those Bretton Woods multilateral organizations that America had created in the postwar era have become dysfunctional. So he railed against the World Trade Organization (WTO), which sets global trade laws, claiming that it "cannot function properly" if all members do not respect the rules.

Speaking right after his US counterpart, Chinese President Xi Jinping gave a strong address about the benefits world trade. Unlike Trump, Xi defended multilateral trade deals, which can help poorer nations to benefit: “"We should support the multilateral trading regime and practice open regionalism to allow developing members to benefit more from international trade and investment.”

Yet, neither leader has illusions about pure free trade ideals in which markets would be self-disciplinary and which thus would only generate winners.

“Globalization is an “irreversible historical trend,” Xi noted. Yet, he argued that the philosophy behind free trade must be repurposed to be "more open, more balanced, more equitable and more beneficial to all".

The great opportunity

Unsurprisingly, most Western media headlined the APEC Summit with the startling contrast: “Trump and Xi offer competing visions for trade.” What got lost in the translation was the intriguing fact – and historical opportunity – that the Trump and Xi visions need not be seen as exclusive.

In fact, both the US and Chinese visions support globalization, but with caveats. Both criticize the old multilateral international banks, though for different reasons. Both believe in rebalancing that is not accompanied by excessive trade deficits and foreign investment that should benefit both investors and destinations.

As aging advanced economies suffer from secular stagnation, they can no longer fuel world trade, investment and migration as vigorously as before. That’s reflected by Trump’s pessimistic narrative of a globalization victim.

Yet, the global economy is also amid a secular transition that is characterized by increasing South-to-South trade, investment and migration, which are now fueled by emerging and developing nations. And that’s reflected by Xi’s more optimistic narrative of a globalization champion. The big picture includes both narratives.

In the 21st century, the international environment that fuels global economic integration is shifting dramatically. While globalization was initiated by advanced economies in the 20th century, it will be completed by emerging economies in the 21st century. At the same time, the drivers of globalization are moving from the transatlantic axis to Asia.

It is thus not the competitive US-China visions that will lead to a destructive conflict in Asia Pacific. Rather, it is the inherent commonalities in the Sino-US approaches that have potential to sustain economic cooperation in the region – and globally.

Dr Steinbock is the founder of the Difference Group and has served as the research director at the India, China, and America Institute (USA) and a visiting fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more information, see http://www.differencegroup.net/

© 2017 Copyright Dan Steinbock - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules