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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: GeoPolitics

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Politics

Monday, May 29, 2017

An Invisible Curtain Falls Between Russia and the West / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: STRATFOR

By Jon Sather : The Cold War ended over 25 years ago, but the lingering Soviet specter continues to haunt the Western world. Since the election of Russian President Vladimir Putin in March 2000, a new conflict has been brewing, this time in cyberspace. And on a battlefield monopolized by the United States and Russia, the historical threats of nuclear war, ambitions of global dominance and aspirations of containing the enemy may not be the relics of the past we imagine them to be.

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Politics

Friday, May 19, 2017

Here’s Why Trump Won’t Pursue His Pledged Foreign Policy / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : For all the tumult that has defined President Donald Trump’s domestic policy, his foreign policy is relatively stable.

There are some notable differences, but what went on before is pretty much what is going on now—a surprise given the expectations.

Trump promised to disengage from burdensome commitments to other countries, shifting the risks and costs of the security of allies away from the United States.

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Politics

Tuesday, May 02, 2017

Who Are the World’s Biggest Military Spenders, Really? / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dan_Steinbock

The conventional narrative is that the world is threatened by the assertive China and Russia. The inconvenient narrative is that China is modernizing, while US priorities are misguided, Dan Steinbock says.

When China recently launched its first domestically built aircraft carrier, New York Times saw it as “a milestone in President Xi Jinping’s drive to extend China’s military reach far beyond its shores.” First reports surfaced in early 2016, when Washington Post headlined, “By 2030, South China Sea will be ‘virtually a Chinese lake’.”
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Politics

Sunday, April 09, 2017

Russia and Iran Threaten Retaliation Against Further US Syria Aggression / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Stephen_Lendman

Russia and Iran accused Washington of crossing unacceptable red lines in attacking Syria - jointly saying they’ll respond to further US aggression, according to Reuters.

A joint statement published by the Ilam al Harbi media outlet said “(w)hat America waged in an aggression on Syria is a crossing of red lines.”

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Politics

Saturday, March 25, 2017

Will Washington Risk WW3 to Block an Emerging EU-Russia Superstate / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Mike_Whitney

The relentless demonization of Vladimir Putin is just one part of Washington’s multi-pronged strategy to roll-back Russian power in Central Asia and extinguish Putin’s dream of a “Greater Europe”. Along with the attempt to smear the Russian president as a “KGB thug” and “dictator”, the media has also alleged that Moscow intervened in the US presidential elections and that Russia is a serial aggressor that poses a growing threat to European and US national security. The media onslaught, which has greatly intensified since the election of Donald Trump in November 2016, has been accompanied by harsh economic sanctions, asymmetrical attacks on Russia’s markets and currency, the arming and training of Russian adversaries in Ukraine and Syria, the calculated suppression of oil prices, and a heavy-handed effort to sabotage Russia’s business relations in Europe.  In short, Washington is doing everything in its power to prevent Russia and Europe from merging into the world’s biggest free trade zone that will be the center of global growth and prosperity for the next century.

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Politics

Friday, March 24, 2017

Maps Of Past Empires That Can Tell Us About The Future / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB SHAPIRO : Studying history has little practical utility in averting past outcomes. We are doomed to repeat history whether we know it or not.

The value in knowing history is not that one might prevent its recurrence. Its value is that it allows you to identify those things that don’t change and that shape events… no matter the year on the calendar.

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Politics

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

In Japan, Russia and China Find Common Ground / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: STRATFOR

For the first time in three years, Russia and Japan have revived an avenue of negotiation that had stalled in the face of enduring tension between the two nations. Foreign and defense ministers from both countries met in Tokyo on Monday to hold 2+2 talks on security issues in the Asia-Pacific region. As expected, Japan took the opportunity to question Russia's recent attempts to bolster its defenses on the southern Kuril Islands, to which Tokyo has long laid claim. Russia fired back with its own objections to Japan's desire to build up its ballistic missile defenses as North Korea pushes ahead with its nuclear program.

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Politics

Sunday, March 12, 2017

The Paradoxical Rivalry of US and China for Industrial Innovation / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dan_Steinbock

By the early 2020s, rivalry for industrial innovation will accelerate between the U.S. and China. Ironically, the Trump White House has opted for a poor-economy industrial policy, whereas China has a rich-economy policy. The former seeks past glory; the latter cannot wait to get to the future.
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Politics

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Maps That Show The US’ Strategy In Asia-Pacific / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : Secretary of Defense James Mattis recently wrapped up his first international trip whose purpose was to “listen to the concerns of South Korean and Japanese leaders.”

The two countries are crucial US allies in Asia, and both face serious threats in their near abroad.

Discussing security threats, though, wasn’t the main goal of Mattis’s trip. He was there to assure both countries that the Trump administration will not abandon the US alliance structure in the Pacific.

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Politics

Thursday, February 09, 2017

The Leading Power In East Asia Will Be Japan—Not China / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : By 2040, Japan will rise as East Asia’s leading power. This is one of our most controversial forecasts at Geopolitical Futures.

Our readers know that GPF is bearish on China. And while some may disagree on that point, they usually see that the reasoning is sound. China will face serious problems in coming years… problems that will strain the Communist Party’s rule. (I write about this topic extensively in This Week in Geopoliticssubscribe here for free.)

Japan, though, seems a bridge too far. Its population is less than a tenth of China’s size (and it’s not just aging… it’s shrinking). Japan also has a debt-to-GDP ratio over 229%.

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Politics

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Trump’s “Great Game”: Playing Russia Against China?  / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dan_Steinbock

Trump has pledged to reset the White House policies on “America First” basis. In Asia, it may mean an effort to balance with Russia against China – the reverse of US China approach in the 1970s.

After inauguration, Donald Trump will move from Trump Plaza in mid-Manhattan to White House in Washington, where he will enjoy extraordinary execution power. Today, Republicans will control the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives.

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Politics

Monday, January 16, 2017

The Story of the U.S. Regime Change Plan in the Philippines / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dan_Steinbock

As long-needed economic reforms are taking off in the Philippines, regime change plans have been prepared in the US State Department against a democratically-elected president who enjoys very high popular support.      

During the Philippine presidential campaigns in spring 2016, U.S. Ambassador Philip Goldberg sided visibly with anti-Duterte forces, which led to several high-profile confrontations. After the controversial Ambassador left the Philippines, he wrote a “blueprint to undermine Duterte within 18 months.” Last month, the plan was leaked to The Manila Times, the oldest English-language daily in the Philippines.

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Politics

Sunday, January 15, 2017

One China Policy Nonnegotiable, Says Beijing / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Stephen_Lendman

The one China policy was first mentioned in the Shanghai Communique on February 28, 1972 during Nixon’s visit to China - stressing the importance for both countries to normalize relations.

On January 1, 1979, the Joint Communique on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations agreed to by Jimmy Carter and Deng Xiaoping formally established bilateral relations, ending official recognition of Taiwan, announced by Carter in December 1978.

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Politics

Wednesday, January 04, 2017

Stratfor 2017 Annual Global Forecast / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: STRATFOR

The convulsions to come in 2017 are the political manifestations of much deeper forces in play. In much of the developed world, the trend of aging demographics and declining productivity is layered with technological innovation and the labor displacement that comes with it. China's economic slowdown and its ongoing evolution compound this dynamic. At the same time the world is trying to cope with reduced Chinese demand after decades of record growth, China is also slowly but surely moving its own economy up the value chain to produce and assemble many of the inputs it once imported, with the intent of increasingly selling to itself. All these forces combined will have a dramatic and enduring impact on the global economy and ultimately on the shape of the international system for decades to come.

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Politics

Wednesday, December 28, 2016

The Trump Reset, US Empire's Coming Economic, Cyber and Military War With China (2/2) / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is Part 2/2 of my comprehensive analysis on the implications of the Trump Reset of why Trump will War on China both economically and militarily. Part 1 dealt with why Trump represents regime change in the US, and the role Putin's Russia, the Fake News SuperPower played in his election victory and what Russia can expect in gratitude going forward - Regime Change, Russia the Over Hyped Fake News SuperPower (1/2)

ECONOMIC WAR - JOBS

The reality is that the United States and much of the rest of the West have effectively been employing hundreds of millions of low paid chinese slave workers for decades, all without the labour laws or environmental consequences resulting in very cheap goods in western shops, low inflation maintenance of purchasing power for the western masses mostly for the purpose of buying the latest junk imports from Chinese factories designed by western corporations, and by doing so have completely transformed the Chinese economy from inconsequential GDP of $300bln 30 years ago to $12 trillion today, and thus exponentially strengthening a totalitarian state ruled by a communist dictatorship that increasingly seeks to spread its tentacles beyond its borders.

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Politics

Tuesday, December 27, 2016

The Trump Reset - Regime Change, Russia the Over Hyped Fake News SuperPower (Part1) / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the first of a two part in-depth analysis that seeks to forecast key mega-trend geopolitical consequences of the Trump Reset (Part 2: US Empire's Coming Economic, Cyber and Military War With China). Trump's US election win amounts to a pressing of the reset button on that which has passed for at least the past 40 years. Which demands a reappraisal of virtually everything to ascertain not just the impact of Trump but the trend reversal / rebellion underway amongst Western populations against the ruling elites that will impact on the mega-trend drivers of financial market trends for many years if not decades to come. Mega-trends such as climate change, war and emerging technologies such as AI, as a 40 year system based on lies piled on top of lies piled on top of even more lies resulting in delirious populations that were ripe for the likes of BrExit in the UK and Trump as my post US election video attempted to explain why delirium played a key part in Trump's election win which this in-depth analysis acts as a continuation of.

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Politics

Sunday, December 25, 2016

The World Till 2021 – New Development Strategy, Alliance of India, Russia and America... / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dr_R_M_Mathew

...& Growing Crisis of the Islamic World

The next four years are strategically important for India, Iran, China, Russia and America that are going to redefine the Fate of the Global Economy and many Nations, especially the Islamic Countries and Islamic Terrorism. Along with the Demise of Globalism and Liberalism and the Rise of Populism in the West, including Germany, Traditional Economics or Science of Economics becomes a major causality for it has been reduced into mere Data Manipulations and Unrealistic Projections and Forecasting that have no practical relevance. Even the World Economic Forum cannot offer any solutions for the Global Economic Crisis other than making so many deliberations for the lack of creative ideas and visions.

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Politics

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Russian President Putin Plans Surprise Christmas Aleppo Visit to Celebrate Syrian Government Victory / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

President Vlad Putin plans a surprise visit to formerly Syria's most populous city, Aleppo, which after 4 years of civil war and the recent Russian military backed onslaught has been turned to rubble. Nevertheless a celebratory Christmas scene will be set to include an orchestra playing "Carol of the Bells", russian jets flying over, a military parade through cleared of rubble and white washed streets, all topped off with Vlad Putin's grand finale that follows in the footsteps of whom he was named after Vlad the Impaler, as the pinnacle of festivities will involve Vlad Putin disrobing and bathing in the blood of hundreds of dead Syrian children harvested earlier from the rubble of East Aleppo, leaving fellow Dictator Assad to take notes whilst looking on, on how to truly frighten the people into obedience, which Vlad Putin is the master of.

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Politics

Monday, December 12, 2016

Maps That Explain US Main Economic Strength Over Russia / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: John_Mauldin

BY JACOB L. SHAPIRO : Power is a relative concept. To say one nation is powerful means nothing. Power derives meaning only when assessed in comparison.

Two nations whose powers we constantly reevaluate are Russia and the United States. Much of our analysis is driven by how weak we believe the Russian Federation is.

There are different ways to evaluate this. Comparing US and Russian regional economies is particularly striking.

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Politics

Wednesday, December 07, 2016

World War II and the Origins of American Unease / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: STRATFOR

By George Friedman : We are at the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe. That victory did not usher in an era of universal peace. Rather, it introduced a new constellation of powers and a complex balance among them. Europe's great powers and empires declined, and the United States and the Soviet Union replaced them, performing an old dance to new musical instruments. Technology, geopolitics' companion, evolved dramatically as nuclear weapons, satellites and the microchip — among myriad wonders and horrors — changed not only the rules of war but also the circumstances under which war was possible. But one thing remained constant: Geopolitics, technology and war remained inseparable comrades.

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