Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
S&P 500 Stuck at 2,900, Still No Clear Direction - 17th June 19
Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? - 17th June 19
Clock’s Ticking on Your Chance to Profit from the Yield Curve Inversion - 17th June 19
Stock Market Rally Faltering? - 17th June 19
Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting - 17th June 19
Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story - 17th June 19
King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies - 17th June 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Tailgate Not Working Problems Fix (70) - 17th June 19
Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? - 17th June 19
US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - 16th June 19
Gold Stocks Bull Upleg Mounting - 16th June 19
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video - 16th June 19
Fethiye Market Fruit, Veg, Spices and Turkish Delight Tourist Shopping - 16th June 19
US Dollar Gold Trend Analysis - 15th June 19
Gold Stocks “Launch” is in Line With Fundamentals - 15th June 19
The Rise of Silver and Major Economic Decline - 15th June 19
Fire Insurance Claims: What Are the Things a Fire Claim Adjuster Does? - 15th June 19
How To Find A Trustworthy Casino? - 15th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match - Video - 14th June 19
Gold and Silver, Precious Metals: T-Minus 3 Seconds To Liftoff! - 14th June 19
Silver Investing Trend Analysis - Video - 14th June 19
The American Dream Is Alive and Well - in China - 14th June 19
Keeping the Online Gaming Industry in Line - 14th June 19
How Acquisitions Affect Global Stocks - 14th June 19
Please Don’t Buy the Dip in Nvidia or Other Chip Stocks - 14th June 19
A Big Thing in Investor Education is Explainer Videos - 14th June 19
IRAN - The Next American War - 13th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match Contest - 13th June 19
Top Best VPN Services You Can Choose For Your iPhone - 13th June 19
Tory Leadership Contest Betting Markets Forecast - Betfair - 13th June 19
US Stock Market Setting Up A Pennant Formation - 13th June 19
Which Stocks Will Lead The Cannabis Rebound? - 13th June 19
The Privatization of US Indo-Pacific Vision - Project 2049, Armitage, Budget Ploys and Taiwan Nexus - 12th June 19
Gold Price Breaks to the Upside - 12th June 19
Top Publicly Traded Casino Company Stocks for 2019 - 12th June 19
Silver Investing Trend Analysis - 12th June 19
Why Blue-Chip Dividend Stocks Aren’t as Safe as You Think - 12th June 19
Technical Analysis Shows Aug/Sept Stock Market Top Pattern Should Form - 12th June 19
FTSE 100: A Top European Index - 12th June 19
Gold Surprise! - 11th June 19
How Forex Indicators are Getting Even More Attention in the Market? - 11th June 19
Stock Market Storm Clouds on the Horizon - 11th June 19
Is Your Financial Security Based On A Double Aberration? - 11th June 19
What If Stocks Are Wrong About Interest Rate Cuts? - 11th June 19
US House Prices Yield Curve, Debt, QE4EVER! - 11th June 19
Natural Gas Moves Into Basing Zone - 11th June 19
U.S. Dollar Stall is Good for Commodities - 11th June 19
Fed Running Out of Time and Conventional Weapons - 11th June 19
Trade Wars Propelling Stock Markets to New Highs - 11th June 19
Best Travel Bags for Summer Holidays 2019, Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt, tactical - 11th June 19
Betting on Next British Prime Minister Tory Leadership Betfair Markets Forecast - 10th June 19
How Can Stock Market Go Up When We’re Headed Towards a Recession? - 10th June 19
If You Invest in Dividend Stocks, Do This to Double Your Returns - 10th June 19
Reasons for the Success of the Dating Market - 10th June 19
Gold Price Trend Analysis - Video - 10th June 19
US Stock Markets Rally Hard – Could Another Big Upside Leg Begin? - 10th June 19
Stock Market Huge Cosmic Cluster Ahead: Buckle Up! - 10th June 19
Stock Market Higher To Go? - 10th June 19
The Gold Price Golden Neckline… - 10th June 19
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - 9th June 19
The Fed Stops Pretending - 9th June 19
Fed Rate Cuts Soon; Bitcoin Enthusiasts Join Wall Street in Bashing Gold - 9th June 19
1990s vs. 2010s - Which Expansion Will be Better for Gold? - 9th June 19
Gold Price Trend Analysis, MACD, Trend Channels, Support / Resistance - 8th June 19
Gold Surges Near Breakout - 8th June 19
Could Gold Rally Above $3750 Before December 2019? - 8th June 19
5 Big Lies About Precious Metals Investing Exposed - 8th June 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

Trading Markets Amid Sound of Wars

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018 Apr 15, 2018 - 05:30 PM GMT

By: Builderadv

Stock-Markets

Given the sound of wars both in actual terms and in economic terms, what do we see for the next few weeks into stock markets and forex markets ? We must delink our trading from event risk and be focussed on actual data and trading trends. Never trade what should happen but trade what is happening. The political situation is fluid with rumors of Trump unhappiness with Mueller investigations. Then there is the war machine which has kicked a gear with attack on Syria. This is not the end. We need to wait if this is going to go deeper if Russia responds. Then there is a underlying current of trade wars which is yet to be settled. A far lesser event is the earning season which is now upon but markets are still trading at 24x P/E so its fully priced in for a great earning season. In fact if market corrects another 10%, it is still fully valued.


Stock Markets: We have big down move exceeding 5% coming


SPX busted out of the triangle upper boundary at 2670. But it dropped back sharply below 2660 and therefore we can confidently say that this was a false breakout. We see the index now falling back to the lower boundary at 2530. The movement in the forex markets will give us futher clues.

JXY Daily

The rectangle shows the volume profile where there is very little volumes. Markets often tend to move away from these zones very quickly. We see yen index taking support here and rising. Please note that this is not the USDJPY but the YEN index. When the the index rises, USDJPY falls.

Japanese Index JXY weekly

JXY weekly shows contracting weekly candles as it approaches the horizontal support at 93. We do not see the support being taken out because of the lack of momentum in the pair on the weekly.
CFTC positions

YEN cot reports show the short covering seen in leveraged category. From a negative 100k, we moved to +3k. This is a big move and the last time this happened, YEN rallied another 7 to 8% after that.

Why is the yen appreciating?

Well the simple answer is that the Japanese economy is pulling out of a recession and is recovering to its strongest in years. The BoJ will have no choice but to remove the stimulus and the fall IN USDJPY has just started. One of the key metrics for the economy is the cash earnings. Average Cash Earnings y/y is reported at 1.3% which came in higher than the previous release at 1.2%Average Cash Earnings y/y reported at 1.3%. This is higher than the expected number at 0.5%. The mean for " Average Cash Earnings y/y " over the last 21 releases has been 0.5. The current released data is greater than the mean of the last 21 releases. See the trends below between the past and actual release.

EUR forecasts
Inflation picks up in EU

Eurozone consumer prices picked up in March for the first time in four months, while the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in more than nine years during February, developments that will reinforce the European Central Bank’s belief that it is on track to meet its inflation target over coming years. The European Union’s statistics agency Wednesday said consumer prices in that month were 1.4% higher than a year earlier, an increase from the 1.1% rate of inflation recorded in February.

Industrial production in France picks up


French Industrial Production m/m is reported at 1.2% which came in higher than the previous release at -1.8%The French Industrial Production m/m data released at 1.2% which is lower than the expected value at 1.5%. The mean for " French Industrial Production m/m " over the last 21 releases has been 0.1. The current released data is greater than the mean of the last 21 releases. See the trends below between the past and actual release.

Given the economy and inflation starting to build up, EUR can see some traction in the coming weeks. There was mild negativity in EUR area due to under par data for Jan and February but that may be behind us. More importantly inflation is on a trend which is moving higher and if its gets closer to 2%, we will see a move by ECB to normalise.

EUR COT reports

The EUR commitment of traders reports from cftc show the build of positions in EUR contracts. The leveraged money was deeply negative in 2014 but now are slightly positive. They still are not overweight the EUR and hence leaves a lot of room for EURUSD to run higher. At same time the asset category which include large institutions are strongly positive. All in all we see EUR to march higher despite the negativity surrounding it.


We run a high quality and precision investment firm at buildadv.com. Our trade copier has notched up an impressive return since the launch to clients. It has a rich history of trading since 2010. Launched in March on MT4, it is doing exceedingly well as shown below.

All you need is a MT4 broker account to trade our system. No upfront fees or upfront risk. Feel free to contact us and we will set you up if you have all the details

Conclusion:
We see EUR, GBP and YEN appreciating against the USD over the next 6 weeks. We also see stock markets falling back to test 2530 which is the 2018 lows. The breakout at 2670 can be termed as false. Volume data was unimpressive and we see high probability of strong correction.

By Buildadv

http://buildadv.com/

About Buildadv:
Buildadv is a investment management firm. We specialize in premium trading research, chart setups, trading insights and a forex trade copier which generates returns for MT4 trading clients. We operate the BUILDFX Trading system which has a rich history of over 8 years of trading history generating an average return of over 15% a month.
Email: adminsupport@buildadv.com
Website: http://buildadv.com/contact/

Copyright 2018 © Buildadv - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules