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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Financial Markets 2018

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 19, 2018

Allegory Regarding Investment Decisions Made On Basis Of Government’s Income Statement, Balance Sheet / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Raymond_Matison

Webster’s dictionary defines allegory as a story in which people, things or happenings have a symbolic or hidden meaning that can be used effectively in teaching or explaining difficult ideas.  Accordingly, an allegoric story is used here to explain the important difference between a government income statement and balance sheet, and its application for investment decisions in financial markets.

Simplistically, the government’s income statement records all its activity over a specific period of time during which it brings in revenues, disburses some benefits and pays some expenses.   Individual and corporate income taxes provide the lion’s share of those revenues.  When the cost of government and its expenditures are deducted from its revenues the balance is either a surplus or savings, or as has been our experience over the last few decades – there is a budget deficit.  Such deficits have to be financed, and it results in persistent issue and growth of our national debt.  In our allegory the budget deficits will be represented by a not large hole in the hull of a ship, whereas the governmental debt is represented by the accumulated flow of water in the hull of a ship.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 18, 2018

Investor Alert: How to See Through the Fog of War / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: MoneyMetals

The U.S. fired 105 Tomahawk missiles into Syria on Friday night.

In other times, the salvo would have put Americans on edge over the prospect of war with nuclear-armed Russia. Our former Cold War adversary is actively defending the Syrian regime and warning the U.S. to mind its own affairs.

But, these days not much can command the attention of the complacent public.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, April 15, 2018

Trading Markets Amid Sound of Wars / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Builderadv

Given the sound of wars both in actual terms and in economic terms, what do we see for the next few weeks into stock markets and forex markets ? We must delink our trading from event risk and be focussed on actual data and trading trends. Never trade what should happen but trade what is happening. The political situation is fluid with rumors of Trump unhappiness with Mueller investigations. Then there is the war machine which has kicked a gear with attack on Syria. This is not the end. We need to wait if this is going to go deeper if Russia responds. Then there is a underlying current of trade wars which is yet to be settled. A far lesser event is the earning season which is now upon but markets are still trading at 24x P/E so its fully priced in for a great earning season. In fact if market corrects another 10%, it is still fully valued.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 13, 2018

Crude Oil Surges Over 8%, Gold and Silver Marginally Higher, Stocks Gain In Volatile Week / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: GoldCore

– Gold & silver eke out small gains; palladium surges 8% and platinum 2%
– Oil (WTI) surges over 8% to over $66.90/bbl; supply disruption risk

 U.S. dollar and Treasuries fall; geopolitical, trade war and fiscal concerns
– Stocks rally and shrug off trade war, macro and geo-political risks
– Bitcoin, major cryptos (Ethereum, Ripple etc) rise sharply

– Russia-US tensions high: Trump warns attack ‘could be very soon or not so soon at all’

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 12, 2018

Hot War and Cold Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Raul_I_Meijer

This is turning into a comedy. A black comedy, for sure, but still. As both the Skripal novichok ‘poisoning’ case in Britain and the ‘chemical attack’ in Douma, Syria fall flat on their faces on a total and absolute lack of evidence, it’s becoming clear that western ‘authorities’ are not at all planning to let go of the privilege that in times gone by allowed them to claim whatever they wanted and demand to be believed.

And despite the insane amounts of spying that underlies their business models and will lead to their demise(s), here is where social media do play a decisive role. See, if you’re an ‘authority’, there’s nothing you would rather do than to close down those social media that let people spread news that contradicts and/or doubts what you just said, and undermines that privilege. But that also would mean you can’t spy on them anymore through social media. A toss-up?!

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, April 07, 2018

As the Gold, Stocks, and Bond Markets Macro Turns… / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

We began months ago, noting the 3 Amigos destined for their goals. Here’s a post from November 2017 explaining the macro fundamentals involved:

Updating the 3 Amigos of the Macro

  1. Amigo #1 (SPX vs. Gold): Either reach major theoretical resistance (it’s a ratio, after all) or abort mission by establishing a downtrend.
  2. Amigo #2 (10yr yield to 2.9% and 30yr yield to 3.3%): Destinations reached!
  3. Amigo #3 (also known as the slower, dumber Amigo, the 10yr-2yr Yield Curve): Still on his journey, flattening. The trouble would be indicated by steepening.
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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 04, 2018

Stocks, Gold and Commodities are Building a Base to Rise / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Builderadv

....

 


Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 03, 2018

Markets Could Rise on Commodity Prices in April / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Builderadv

Despite all the volatility during the first quarter, the first three months of 2018 stock markets correcting but recovering towards the fag-end. The Dow Industrials were the biggest losers with a quarterly drop of -2.5%. The broader S&P 500 Index lost only -1.2%. While the tech dominated Nasdaq Composite gained 2.3%. Small caps saw only a marginal loss (-.40%). The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) captures the entire stock market by size (large, small, and midsize) and by style (growth and value). And it lost only -.71% from the end of December to the end of March.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 31, 2018

Central Planners Hiding Inflation, Imposing Negative Real Interest Rates / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up we’ll hear from Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors. We’ll ask Frank about his outlook on gold during the remainder of 2018 and he’ll also tell us why we should be very leery of taking any financial advice from newly appointed Trump advisor Larry Kudlow. Don’t miss my conversation with Frank Holmes, coming up after this week’s market update.

As the first quarter of 2018 comes to an end, the gold market finds itself trading fairly close to where it began the year. Every time gold looks like it’s on the verge of breaking out, it gets pushed back into a stubbornly persistent trading range.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 26, 2018

Minding the Trade Gap: Gold Breakout, EURUSD chaotic, USDJPY Continuation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Builderadv

Large tax cuts and spending increases enacted by Congress and the Trump administration are poised to push fiscal deficits above $1 trillion in coming years. Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist of JPMorgan Chase & Co., has dubbed this the “square peg and round hole of fiscal and trade policies”—it’s nearly impossible for a nation to close its trade deficit while widening its fiscal deficit and expecting consumers to keep spending. Ultimately, “fiscal policy will dominate trade policy,” Mr. Feroli said. “Tariffs and other trade restrictions will be insufficient to lean against the overwhelming force.”

Worsening the situation is the fact that U.S. tax revenue declined in February and government spending rose, as the share of wages withheld for taxes dipped as a result of the tax cut passed by Congress late last year.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 24, 2018

SPX Wedge Breaks and Double Gaps: Capatulation but GOLD is Coiling for Breakout / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Submissions

Arb Cap writes: The stock market continued its correction lower with a sharp downmove the last nine days (12 to 22 March). The S&P 500, Dow Industrials and Nasdaq 100 lost more than five percent, while the S&P Mid-Cap 400 and S&P Small-Cap 600 fell 3.76% and 2.77%, respectively. The Dow Industrials (red) was the first back to negative territory with a move below the zero line on Monday, while the S&P 500 (black) and S&P Mid-Cap 400 (blue) followed suit on Thursday. The S&P Small-Cap 600 and Nasdaq 100 remain positive year-to-date.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 19, 2018

Bonds, Inflation & the Market Amigos / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

The Bonds segment of NFTRH 491 took a turn to tin foil territory to allow the letter writer to expose newer subscribers to his ideological views and thus, bias. #491 also got pretty talky on the precious metals as it did a thorough review of the sector’s status, with silver’s symmetry to 2016 a very key item. Hint: An ill-fated bounce like so many that have come after the 2016 top is not what we are looking for with the next rally, but it ain’t gonna be easy. You can check out this article for a good piece of the picture: Silver’s Equal and Opposite Symmetry to 2016 Indicates Future Sustainable Rally. On to the Bonds segment…

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 09, 2018

The Last Great Myth of Every Financial Market Euphoria / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: EWI

See how financial markets are governed by waves of optimism and pessimism -- not cold reason

Beware of the "New Normal" in the Stock Market!

The January 2018 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast put it this way:

After two decades of Mania Era asset bubbles and sentiment extremes, what now seems normal to many investors is actually highly abnormal.

That's right -- many investors no longer fear asset bubbles. That is why too many will be caught off-guard when the Mania Era inevitably ends.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, February 17, 2018

1 Week Later, Stock, Bond Market Risk Remains ‘On’ as 2 of 3 Amigos Ride On / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

Despite a tough week for stocks into Friday, February 9, three big picture macro indicators have continued to support a risk ‘on’ backdrop. Many of the shorter-term indicators we watch, like Junk bond ratios and the Palladium/Gold ratio say the same thing. Junk/Treasury and Junk/Investment Grade are threatening new highs and as we have noted in NFTRH updates all through the recent market volatility, Palladium (cyclical) got hammered vs. Gold (counter-cyclical), but only to test its major uptrend. Now the ratio is bouncing with the market relief that is so predictably taking hold (here’s a public post where we effectively called bullish, in-day on that Friday).

As for the bigger macro indicators, the middle one, Amigo #2 (long-term interest rates) has that funny look on his face because he is bracing for something.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 15, 2018

Big Conflict Ahead in the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

TNX futures are in focus this morning as yields creep ever higher. The overnight high was 29.44, and while the 150% Fib level is at 29.66. Since then it has pulled back, but there does not seem to be an end to higher rates, yet. There may possibly be one more probe higher to the top. Possible targets range from 30.18 to 31.36.

As Northman Trader pointed out yesterday, there is a Cup with Handle formation with the Lip at 27.00 that suggests a probable target for Wave 5 near 37.00. However, the Cycles Model suggests a probable retracement to the neckline may occur first.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 12, 2018

The Inflation Trade and Bond Yields Rising Result in Equities Correction / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Abalgorithm

The Dow has one of its biggest percentage weekly decline since 2008. The sudden return of volatility across global markets has triggered the biggest stampede out of equity funds on record. Investors yanked a net $30.6 billion out of equity funds in the week through Wednesday, according to fund tracker EPFR Global. That’s the largest weekly net outflow based on data going back to 2004, based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysis of EPFR data. The exodus out of stock funds wasn’t a global phenomenon. Asia benefited from fund flows in the latest week to Feb. 7, even as major indexes there tumbled too. Investors poured a net $4.7 billion into Japanese equity funds alone, the biggest weekly inflow since November 2016, the data show. Investors also sent a net $528.5 million into South Korean stock funds, the largest weekly influx this year.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, February 11, 2018

US Stock Market, Gold, Silver and the Macro Backdrop / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

US Stock Market

We will update global markets as well as the macro situation in NFTRH 486, but for this article I’d like to focus on the US stock market.

Let’s cut to the chase; the markets have finally fallen in line for those of us who manage markets, as opposed to dollar cost average into them through a money manager and then go about life, blissfully unaware. Much like during the 2015-2016 period, when the media were all but demanding investors go one way when the right way was the opposite (for example, we got bullish during the Brexit mini hysteria because sentiment, macro indicators and charts told us to) during the market top (that wasn’t).

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, February 11, 2018

After Two weeks of Stock Market Decline, People Are Ssking, “Are We There Yet?” / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

VIX nearly did a 100% retracement to the August 2015 high as suggested last week.  This week it pulled back to test the Cycle Top support/resistance at 22.31.  It appears to have yet another surge higher in store for it.  The Cycles Model has a triple indicator of a higher Wave (3) top in the next week.   

(ZeroHedge  Less than a month ago, Goldman Sachs presciently published a note research report "VIX ETPs are now net short vega - should we worry".
.... which as the title suggested showed that the net position of VIX ETPs has become short over the past few weeks, for only the second time in their eight year history.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 08, 2018

Precious Metals, Stock Market, Volatility, and Bitcoin Price Predictions Video / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our articles, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors to explore the tools and techniques that discretionary and algorithmic traders need to profit in today’s competitive markets. Created with the serious trader and investor in mind – whether beginner or professional – our approach will put you on the path to win. Understanding market structure, trend identification, cycle analysis, volatility, volume, when and when to trade, position management, and how to put it all together so that you have a winning edge.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 07, 2018

The “Free Lunch Trade” Market Bubble Has Burst… What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Graham_Summers

The markets just changed.

Few understand what happened to the financial system after 2008. What happened was that the debt based financial system began to implode as debt deflation took hold. The scary thing is that it wasn’t even a large amount of debt deflation.

Remember the 2008 Crisis? That time when everyone thought the world was literally going to end? It’s that small dip in the dotted line below:

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