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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Financial Markets 2018

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 12, 2018

Gold & Global Financial Crisis Redux / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The Global Financial Crisis, a broader deeper more powerful systemic crisis than the Lehman Event was, has finally arrived in a great redux. It is seen in numerous areas. We have finally arrived at the ten-year anniversary of the Lehman event, a killjob whereby JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs bought a few $billion in mortgage bonds and never paid Lehman Brothers. The firm died, called a financial failure, but was actually a strangulation. Goldman went on to capture AIG, in order to claim 100 cents per dollar on insured mortgage bonds, a second crime. The Wall Street banks, under the leader Henry Paulsen as the managing USTreasury Secretary, completed the third crime, by pitching the $700 billion TARP Fund. They stole it, using the fund for enriching themselves with redeemed preferred stock, instead of making the funds available for lending purposes. Here ten years later, nothing has been fixed. In fact, all the abuses heaped upon the mortgage finance sector have been repeated in sovereign bonds. The USTreasury Bond has become a subprime bond, financed by pure monetization, almost no actual bonds buyers, $trillion annual deficits, auctions rigged, with hidden demand from the derivative machinery. It qualifies as a Third World debt security. The corporate bonds were routinely abused in stock buybacks, hardly ever ploughed back into the business. High yield bonds are the norm now, along with the wrecked Emerging Market bonds. There are many analysts who call the current situation the Everything Bond Bubble.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 03, 2018

Weekly Charts and Update on Equity Markets, FX Trades and Commodities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: FXCOT

Japan’s Nikkei 225, China’s Shanghai Composite and South Korea’s Kospi stock indexes gained 2.2%, 2% and 1.6%, respectively. The Chinese yuan rose 0.36% to about 6.925 per U.S. dollar. Ahead of the U.S. open, S&P 500 futures also climbed 1.5%. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping approved the deal on Saturday in Buenos Aires. It offers Beijing a reprieve from a planned increase in tariffs, scheduled for Jan. 1, on $200 billion in Chinese goods exports to the U.S. Tariffs were scheduled to rise to 25% from 10%.

We have been long equity markets in Novemeber from 2640 here: Be long S&P Since our trade, the equity markets have rallied over +4% in Novemeber.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, December 02, 2018

A Post-Powell View of USD, S&P 500 and Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

The Fed blinked. This was not news to Macro Tourist Kevin Muir or readers of Biiwii.com, which is very pleased to publish his work.

Fed Finally Blinks

Amid a weakening global economy, gathering signs of weakening in the US economy and a dump in inflation expectations, Jerome Powell implied that the Fed may be going on hold for a while after a December rate hike.

This graph from SG Cross Asset Research/Equity Quant by way of Kevin Muir’s article attempts to show that the accumulated rate hike tightening and “shadow” tightening as a result of QE suspension has now met or exceeded the levels that preceded the last two economic recessions.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Watch This Picture As Asset Prices Fall / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: F_F_Wiley

“It is high time we rediscovered the role of the financial cycle in macroeconomics.” —Claudio Borio, Bank for International Settlements

In May, we queued up the b-side of a record describing America’s balance sheet—we looked at the mix of lenders instead of the usual “a-side” analysis of the borrowers.

We showed that the balance sheet includes four types of lenders—banks, the Fed, foreigners and prior domestic saving—as in the updated chart below. And the “prior domestic saving” category, since you asked, is mostly households, pension funds and insurance companies investing in bonds and bond funds.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 26, 2018

Trading Charts and Setups: Chances of a FED Interest Rate Hike Falling / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: FXCOT

As equity markets make a topping formation and US 10 year yield retest 3% level, the chances of a FED hike in 2019 is declining. Govt pressure will build up on Powell into 2019 and we believe this will damage FED ability to freely raise rates even if they wish to. We highlight a few key charts and setups to watch out for as you start a new trading week.

2018 has been a difficult years for every single asset class. The mutual fund industry is bleeding and hedge fund managers are struggling to stay afloat. Traditional investment models do not work any more. This is a year in which both bonds and stocks fell together. Traditional models work on shifting money from one asset class to another. However this year, all classes bled. This year, set apart the genius managers from the ordinary. Fxcot trading system which is primarily a EURUSD, USDJPY trading system has made over 90% this year which is truly incredible given the performance of hedge funds.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 26, 2018

Stock Market Approach Neckline / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

VIX advanced during the short holiday week, making a new high and higher low, closing above its weekly Cycle Top at 20.63.  Note the Head & Shoulders formation which may give it more impetus in the next week.  VIX is also positioned for a triply-indicated surge of strength through mid-December.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 22, 2018

Return of Stock, Oil and Forex Markets Volatility / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: FXCOT

Market volatility is back. Forex markets have seen whipsaws as the dollar index tries to price in a weakening US economy and a FED which is raising rates. Stocks have suffered a series of pullbacks this fall that have chipped away at much of their 2018 gains. Downbeat forecasts from former market leaders such as Apple Inc. and Facebook Inc. have raised questions over whether the past year’s gains can be justified. Adding to those worries, investors are already expecting a broader slowdown in corporate earnings growth as rising rates and a stronger dollar take a greater toll on profits.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 12, 2018

3 Triggers That Could Push This Sell-Off into a Financial Crisis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: John_Mauldin

There’s very real possibility the global economy breaks down in the next six months.

Anything could trigger a crisis, and it could well be something no one now foresees. But here are my three candidates.

Corporate Credit Crisis

US companies are way more leveraged now than they were ahead of the 2008 crisis.
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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 06, 2018

Financial Markets Are Making Faulty Assumptions about Growth & Resources / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Dr. Chris Martenson of PeakProsperity.com, and author of the book Prosper! How to Prepare for the Future and Create a World Worth Inheriting. Chris is a commentator on a range of important topics such as global economics, financial markets, governmental policy, precious metals and the importance of preparedness among other things. And it's always great to have him with us.

Chris, it's been too long, but welcome back and thanks for joining us again.

Chris Martenson: Hey Mike. Thank you so much. It's great to be back with you.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, October 21, 2018

SPX/Gold, 30yr Yields & Yield Curve – Amigos 1, 2 & 3 Updated / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

We began the Amigos theme last year in order to be guided by the goofy riders during the ending stages of a cyclical, risk-on phase that was not going to end until the proper macro signals come about, no matter how many times the bears declared victory along the way. The fact that grown adults see conspiracies around every corner (okay, I see them around every third corner myself, but work with me here) makes such macro signaling very necessary in order to keep bias at bay.

To review…

  • Amigo #1 is the SPX/Gold Ratio (more generally, stocks vs. gold) and a counter cyclical and risk ‘off’ environment simply will not engage until stocks top out vs. gold, if even for a cyclical down phase within the up phase.
  • Amigo #2 is the 30yr Treasury Yield and it’s 100 month EMA ‘limiter’, which has supported the funding mechanism (unrestrained credit creation) for the leveraged economy for decades. If the limiter holds yet again, while there could be some deflationary problems the system will persist. If it breaks for the first time in decades well, we are not in Kansas anymore and the door would open up to an inflationary Crack Up Boom (von Mises style).
  • Amigo #3 is the Yield Curve, which is in the late stages of flattening. When it turns up it will either be under pains of deflationary or inflationary pressure. Note the word “pains” because there would be pain, either way; but in different financial and economic areas.
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Stock-Markets

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Investor Alert: Is the Trump Agenda in Peril? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Is the Trump agenda in peril? It’s a question investors should consider ahead of the mid-term elections.

Up to now, the Trump economic agenda has certainly been great for Wall Street and much of the broader economy. The Dow Jones Industrials continues to defy all naysayers – notching yet another new record high in the first week of October before correcting.

Meanwhile, the latest GDP numbers show the economy growing at its fastest pace in over a decade, with official unemployment at generational lows.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Stock Market Volatility Breeds Contempt / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses the stock market volatility of the last week and what it may mean for precious metals.

When asked about the dominant theme for the markets last January, I said that the one thing I looked forward to was a return of "VOLATILITY" as the Federal Reserve Board moved to "normalize" the interest rate structure, now commonly referred to as quantitative tightening. What has actually transpired since then was a brief volatility spike in February during which the UVXY tripled in ten days but other than that, markets screamed higher, hitting new high after new high with annoying complacency and irritating certainty while "VOL" collapsed.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

BREXIT, Italy’s Deficit, The EU Summit And Fomcs Minutes In Focus / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: C_Pissouros

Darius Anucauskas writes: It looks like a busy week, as there is a lot of economic data that is ready to hit the spotlight, together with the political news that are taking centre stage. Brexit negotiations are also in focus, together with the ongoing discussions around Italy’s deficit.

On Monday, the calendar is relatively quiet, apart from US retail sales figures that are set to come out before the US opening bell. The expectations here are that the figures for the core and headline could have increased. The headline number is expected to come out at +0.7%, which is well above the previous +0.1%. The core figure, which excludes automobiles, is forecasted to come out one tenth of percent higher, at +0.4%, against the previous month’s +0.3%. Certainly, better sales figures could have a positive effect on the US dollar, but we doubt that the greenback will show any strong reaction after numbers come out.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 09, 2018

Interest Rate Shock-Time to Find Out Who has been Swimming Naked / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Plunger

What Happened?  

Could everything have changed in a 24 hour period?  Apparently, Yes,   Over the span of 24 hours markets woke up and realized that the FED may be at the cusp of committing Policy Error.  Recently bonds have been teetering on the edge and this week Jerome Powell gave bonds a push off the ledge.  Bonds delivered a message and the stock market was listening.  Stocks got derailed along with bonds.

Yields blew out and sucked the air out of the stock market.  So why the big move in bonds?  Two reasons:

  1. Less demand for LT bonds due to the higher cost of hedging caused by higher yields, higher USD and emerging markets dropping.
  2. FED Chair Powell advertising he plans on being very aggressive with rates.  He plans on raising rates until something breaks.
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Stock-Markets

Friday, October 05, 2018

SPX/Gold Ratio, Long-term Yields & Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

It has been a long while since the last Amigos update because frankly if the characters, images and shticks I invent to portray market status begin to wear on me sometimes I have to believe they may do the same to you. Consider that the 3 Amigos, SPX/Gold Ratio, Long-term Yields and the Yield Curve are slow movers that we usually view from monthly chart perspectives and well, sometimes you need to take a break and just let them do their thing over time.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 27, 2018

US & Global Markets Internals / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

To celebrate NFTRH’s 10 year anniversary (Friday, Sept. 28) I’d like to present one segment from this week’s report, NFTRH 518 each day until Friday. These excerpts will give you an idea of what it takes to provide a top tier, best of breed product. But there is much more to a single weekly report than will be shown here publicly. Oh and don’t forget the dynamic in-week market updates as events dictate.

All for 30% less per day than you spend on your single cup of small regular coffee at Dunkin Donuts! Think about that. I mean, I don’t want to downplay the importance of coffee – it makes NFTRH run – but what is the value of consistent, focused and proven market intelligence at your fingertips day to day, week to week and year after year?

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

The Post Bubble Market Contraction Thesis Receives Validation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Plunger

In the last two reports I developed the thesis that we are in the early stages of a post bubble contraction (PBC).  This contraction actually began in 2008 and is now reasserting itself in the form of a global liquidity crisis (GLC). In this edition I show how this thesis just received mainstream validation and it’s now time to begin developing an investment strategy.

The FED and central banks responded to the 2008 crisis by lowering rates to zero or less and injected trillions of credit into the system.  Indeed, they were able to re-inflate the pre-crisis bubble and put the contraction on hold, but only at the price of corrupting the core of money and credit itself and their actions exasperated the gap between the haves and the have nots.  QE in the end turned out simply to be monetary policy for the rich. The  result has been to start a world wide populist movement causing outside political contenders to win elections.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, September 23, 2018

US and Global Stocks, Commodities, Precious Metals and the ‘Anti-USD’ Trade / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

The most recent leg of the US stock market rally and the bounces in global equities, commodities and precious metals are coming as part of an “anti-USD trade”. Certain US stock sectors, most global stock markets, commodities and precious metals were pressured by the USD rally that began in April and now, as the buck eases, a relief valve opens.

All charts below are as of Thursday’s close.

US – S&P 500

The S&P 500 – in essence a collection of sectors that are ‘pro’, ‘anti’ and ‘neutral’ the USD’s status – appears to be on the way to our target of 3000+, based on a conservative measurement of its daily chart pattern. This was the NFTRH alternate scenario after our expected summer drive to test the January top did not prove out a then favored view that the test would fail. As you can see, SPX broke out, dropped to test the breakout and off it goes. We have since been operating to the new favored plan.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

US Dollar Head & Shoulders Triggered. What's Next? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX made its final high yesterday afternoon. The top-to-top time was 12.9 days, fitting my thesis that the impulsive decline and retracement fits in Cyclical time. This morning’s futures are lower, indicating that a new impulse may be underway, although it may remain shallow for the better part of the day. There is a potential Head & Shoulders formation that, when triggered, may send the SPX beneath its smaller Broadening Wedge.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 04, 2018

Financial Crisis 10 Years Later – No Lessons Learned / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: James_Quinn

“A variety of investors provided capital to financial companies, with which they made irresponsible loans and took excessive risks. These activities resulted in real losses, which have largely wiped out the shareholder equity of the companies. But behind that shareholder equity is bondholder money, and so much of it that neither depositors of the institution nor the public ever need to take a penny of losses. Citigroup, for example, has $2 trillion in assets, but also has $600 billion owed to its own bondholders. From an ethical perspective, the lenders who took the risk to finance the activities of these companies are the ones that should directly bear the cost of the losses.”John Hussman – May 2009

This month marks the 10th anniversary of the Wall Street/Fed/Treasury created financial disaster of 2008/2009. What should have happened was an orderly liquidation of the criminal Wall Street banks who committed the greatest control fraud in world history and the disposition of their good assets to non-criminal banks who did not recklessly leverage their assets by 30 to 1, while fraudulently issuing worthless loans to deadbeats and criminals. But we know that did not happen.

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