Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Climate Change Mass Extinction - Birds, Bees and Bugs: Going Going Gone - Richard_Mills
2.A Purrrfect Gold Price Setup! - Peter_Degraaf
3.Who Finances America's Borrowing? Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers Part 2 - F_F_Wiley
4.America’s One-sided Domestic Financial War - Raymond_Matison
5.Gold Price Summer Doldrums - Zeal_LLC
6.Two Key Events Will Unleash Gold - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Billionaire Schools Teacher in NAFTA Trade Talks - Richard_Mills
8.Get Out Of Crypto Cannabis Bubble Before It Pops and Move Into Bargain Basement Miners - Jeb_Handwerger
9.Stock Market Could Pullback for 1-2 weeks, But Medium Term Bullish - Troy_Bombardia
10.G7 Chaos, Central Banks and US Fed Will Drive Stock Prices This Week - Chris_Vermeulen
Last 7 days
Soybean Price Hits 9 Year Low Due to Trade War - 24th Jun 18
Small Cap Stocks, Technology and Pharma To Drive A Renewed Market Rally - 24th Jun 18
Gerald Celente: Why You Still Need Guns, Gold, and a Getaway Plan... - 23rd Jun 18
Cheap Gold Stocks Bottom Basing - 23rd Jun 18
A Trade War Won’t Be Good for the US Dollar - 23rd Jun 18
SPX/Gold, Long-term Yields & Yield Curve 3 Amigos Update - 22nd Jun 18
Gold - How Long Can This Last? - 22nd Jun 18
Dow Has Fallen 8 days in a Row. Medium-long Term Bullish for Stocks - 22nd Jun 18
Trouble Spotting Market Trends? This Can Help - 22nd Jun 18
Financial Markets Analysis and Trend Forecasts 2018 - A Message from Nadeem Walayat - 21st Jun 18
SPX Bouncing Above Support - 21st Jun 18
Things You Need To Know If You Want To Invest In Bitcoin Now - 21st Jun 18
The NASDAQ’s Outperformance vs. the Dow is Very Bullish - 21st Jun 18
Warning All Investors: Global Stock Market Are Shifting Away From US Price Correlation - 20th Jun 18
Gold GLD ETF Update… Breakdown ? - 20th Jun 18
Short-term Turnaround in Bitcoin Might Not Be What You Think - 19th Jun 18
Stock Market’s Short Term Downside Will be Limited - 19th Jun 18
Natural Gas Setup for 32% Move in UGAZ Fund - 19th Jun 18
Magnus Collective To Empower Automation And Artificial Intelligence - 19th Jun 18
Trump A Bull in a China Shop - 19th Jun 18
Minor Car Accident! What Happens After You Report Your Accident to Your Insurer - 19th Jun 18
US Majors Flush Out A Major Pivot Low and What’s Next - 18th Jun 18
Cocoa Commodities Trading Analysis - 18th Jun 18
Stock Market Consolidating in an Uptrend - 18th Jun 18
Russell Has Gone Up 7 Weeks in a Row. EXTREMELY Bullish for Stocks - 18th Jun 18
What Happens Next to Stocks when Tech Massively Outperforms Utilities and Consumer Staples - 18th Jun 18
The Trillion Dollar Market You’ve Never Heard Of - 18th Jun 18
The Corruption of Capitalism - 17th Jun 18
North Korea, Trade Wars, Precious Metals and Bitcoin - 17th Jun 18
Climate Change and Fish Stocks – Burning Oxygen! - 17th Jun 18
A $1,180 Ticket to NEW Trading Opportunities, FREE! - 16th Jun 18
Gold Bullish on Fed Interest Rate Hike - 16th Jun 18
Respite for Bitcoin Traders Might Be Deceptive - 16th Jun 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

Stock Futures Are on a Sell Signal

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018 May 16, 2018 - 02:30 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

Good Morning!

SPX futures are sliding as low as 2720.50 this morning, potentially breaking beneath the rally trendline at 2725.00. This gives the SPX an aggressive sell signal that will await confirmation from the VIX and NYSE Hi-Lo Index. Aggressive signals are subject to drawdowns, so take due care with any new positions.


ZeroHedge reports, “The pain trade has returned with a bang this morning as both 10Y Treasury yields and the dollar are grinding higher, the former back above 3.00%...

... the latter at the highest level since last Wednesday as oil continued to advance and soak up liquidity...

... in the process slamming near record Treasury and USD shorts - hence "pain trade" - while leaving a risk-off flavor to markets on Tuesday, with European stocks struggling for traction following declines across Asia, which saw a disappointing set of data out of China overnight , while US futures were roughly 0.2% lower around 7am ET.

NDX futures are down and appear to have broken the rally trendline as well. The break of a rally trendline may be considered an aggressive sell signal with confirmation at the 50-day Moving Average at 6745.35.

The equities Cycles Model suggests that, once the decline begins, we may see a two-month decline that may wipe out 50-60% of the equity values. In other words, Wave (3) may take that long before it is finished.

VIX futures are higher, but must cross the mid-cycle resistance at 13.86 for a buy signal. With a futures high of 13.26, VIX has a way to go yet for a signal.

The Shanghai Index touched its 50-day Moving Average yesterday and appears prepared to begin its decline. We’ll be watching for a cross of Intermediate-term support at 3139.98 , then the Head and Shoulders neckline at 3080.00-3090.00. for confirmation of the next leg down.

ZeroHedge comments, “China’s economic momentum appeared to slow from March's data as while Industrial Production handsomely beat expectations, Retail Sales were below the lowest estimate and Fixed Asset Investment was the weakest since Dec 1999...

Industrial output rose 7.0 percent in April from a year earlier, versus a projected 6.4 percent in a Bloomberg survey and 6 percent in March - highest since June 2017
Retail sales expanded 9.4 percent from a year earlier, versus a forecast 10 percent - equal lowest since Feb 06
Fixed-asset investment rose 7.0 percent year-on-year in the first four months, compared with an estimated 7.4 percent - lowest since Dec 1999.

TNX is testing its prior high at 30.35, but hasn’t yet reached it. Remember, it can go up to 30.35, but not beyond, to remain in the current Wave structure.

The Commitment of Traders shows that on May 14, the Commercial Traders are 639852 contracts long, while the Large Specs (-408629) and Small Specs (-231222) have the opposite wager. This is a very lopsided trade, which suggests that yields may go down hard, should the markets break. The tension is palpable.

USD futures are charging higher after the USD probed toward, but did not make, the mid-Cycle support at 91.72. The Cycles Model suggests that strength may return to the USD for the next week. It this possibly a Wave 3? The next target appears to be the Cycle Top at 95.28. Point 7 may be higher than that, but we will have to evaluate as the rally progresses.

Gold futures have taken a big hit this morning, having declined beneath its previous low. Futures were as low as 1296.20, crossing a potential Head & Shoulders neckline at 1300.00. The Cycles Model suggests a week-long decline that may make the Head & Shoulders target.

Regards,

Tony

Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web.

We are in the process of updating our website at http://mrpracticalinvestor.com/ to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at tpi@thepracticalinve4stor.com .

Anthony M. Cherniawski, President and CIOhttp://mrpracticalinvestor.com

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals.

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules