Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Dollargeddon - Gold Price to Soar Above $6,000 - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Is Gold Price On Verge Of A Bottom, See For Yourself - Chris_Vermeulen
3.Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold Price to Plunge Below $1000 - Key Factors for Gold & Silver Investors - P_Radomski_CFA
5.Why The Uranium Price Must Go Up - Richard_Mills
6.Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Jim Rogers on Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and Blockchain’s “Spectacular Future” - GoldCore
8.More Signs That the Stock Market Will Rally Until 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
9.It's Time for A New Economic Strategy in Turkey - Steve_H_Hanke
10.Fiat Currency Inflation, And Collapse Insurance - Raymond_Matison
Last 7 days
Gold Exodus to Reverse - 22nd Sep 18
Bitcoin Trader SCAM WARNING - Peter Jones, Dragons Den Fake Facebook Ads - 22nd Sep 18
China Is Building the World’s Largest Innovation Economy - 21st Sep 18
How Can New Companies Succeed in the Overcrowded Online Gambling Market? - 21st Sep 18
Golden Sunsets in the Land of U.S. Dollar Hegemony - 20th Sep 18
5 Things to Keep in Mind When Buying a Luxury Car in Dubai - 20th Sep 18
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video - 20th Sep 18
The Stealth Reason Why the Stock Market Keeps On Rising - 20th Sep 18
Sheffield School Applications Crisis Eased by New Secondary Schools Places - 20th Sep 18
Precious Metals Sector: It’s 2013 All Over Again - 19th Sep 18
US Dollar Head & Shoulders Triggered. What's Next? - 19th Sep 18
Prepare for the Stock Market’s Volatility to Increase - 19th Sep 18
The Beginning of the End of the Dollar - 19th Sep 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport 'Approved Used' Bad Paint Job - Inchcape Chester - 19th Sep 18
Are Technology and FANG Stocks Bottoming? - 18th Sep 18
Predictive Trading Model Suggests Falling Stock Prices During US Elections - 18th Sep 18
Lehman Brothers Financial Collapse - Ten Years Later - 18th Sep 18
Financial Crisis Markets Reality Check Now in Progress - 18th Sep 18
Gold’s Ultimate Confirmation - 18th Sep 18
Omanization: a 20-year Process to Fight Volatile Oil Prices  - 18th Sep 18
Sheffield Best Secondary Schools Rankings and Trend Trajectory for Applications 2018 - 18th Sep 18
Gold / US Dollar Inverse Correlation - 17th Sep 18
The Apple Story - Trump Tariffs Penalize US Multinationals - 17th Sep 18
Wall Street Created Financial Crash Catastrophe Ten Years Later - 17th Sep 18
Trade Wars Are Going To Crash This Stock Market - 17th Sep 18
Why Is Apple Giving This Tiny Stock A $900 Million Opportunity? - 17th Sep 18
Financial Markets Macro/Micro View: Waves and Cycles - 17th Sep 18
Stock Market Bulls Prevail – for Now! - 17th Sep 18
GBPUSD Set to Explode Higher - 17th Sep 18
The China Threat - Global Crisis Hot Spots & Pressure Points - 17th Sep 18 - Jim_Willie_CB
Silver's Relationship with Gold Reaching Historical Extremes - 16th Sep 18
Emerging Markets to Follow and Those to Avoid - 16th Sep 18
Investing - Look at the Facts to Find the Truth - 16th Sep 18
Gold Stocks Forced Capitulation - 15th Sep 18
Hindenburg Omen & Consumer Confidence: More Signs of Stock Market Trouble in 2019 - 15th Sep 18
Trading The Global Future - Bad Consequences - 15th Sep 18
Central Banks Have Gone Rogue, Putting Us All at Risk - 15th Sep 18
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - 14th Sep 18
Growing Number of Small Businesses Opening – and Closing – In the UK - 14th Sep 18
Gold Price Trend Analysis - Video - 14th Sep 18
Esports Is Exploding—Here’s 3 Best Stocks to Profit From - 13th Sep 18
The Four Steel Men Behind Trump’s Trade War - 13th Sep 18
How Trump Tariffs Could Double America’s Trade Losses - 13th Sep 18
Next Financial Crisis Is Already Here! John Lewis 99% Profits CRASH - Retail Sector Collapse - 13th Sep 18
Trading Cryptocurrencies: To Win, You Must Know Where You're Wrong - 13th Sep 18
Gold, Silver, and USD Index - Three Important “Nothings” - 13th Sep 18
Precious Metals Sector On a Long-term SELL Signal - 13th Sep 18
Does Gambling Regulation Work - A Case Study - 13th Sep 18
The Ritual Burial of the US Constitution - 12th Sep 18
Stock Market Final Probe Higher ... Then the PANIC! - 12th Sep 18
Gold Nuggets And Silver Bullets - 12th Sep 18
Bitcoin Trading - SEC Strikes Again - 12th Sep 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Any Market

As Trade Wars Broaden, Europe Is the Key to Future

Politics / Protectionism Jul 10, 2018 - 11:44 PM GMT

By: Dan_Steinbock

Politics As the Trump White House has started the “biggest trade war” in history, diplomatic activity is escalating from the transatlantic axis to China and the EU – America’s next tariff target.

After the meeting of China and Central and East European (CEE) countries in Sofia, Bulgaria, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang rushed to the fifth round of intergovernmental consultations between China and Germany.


These visits have been overshadowed by the specter of the U.S. trade wars that are about to broaden over Europe. In few days, Trump will start his own European visit to attend the NATO summit in Brussels, meet with Queen Elizabeth and Prime Minister May in the UK, and to sit down with Vladimir Putin in Helsinki in mid-July.

The White House will seek to push US NATO allies to finance a greater share of the joint military expenditures, strengthen Anglo-Saxon ties against Brussels and to warm its relationship with Russia amid the new U.S.-led Cold War. Behind the façade, the Trump administration seeks to deflect attention from the impending U.S.-EU trade war.

CEE-China 16+1 cooperation will broaden             

Established in 2012, the talks between China and CEE countries have supported faster development as trade volumes have soared to $68 billion last year, which translates to 16 percent growth on a year-to-year basis.

After the CEE economies were harmed by the global financial crisis and the subsequent European debt crisis, China’s economic contribution has been vital. From Beijing’s perspective, the CEE countries, along with key Mediterranean economies, have served as China’s foothold to Europe and the early development of the One Road One Belt (OBOR) initiatives, particularly in Eastern Europe.

From the standpoint of the CEE countries, the 16+1 Framework has been economically important by boosting Eastern Europe’s role and leverage within the EU.

As Brussels’ focus has been on European sovereign debt, massive bailouts, the UK Brexit and new disintegration pressures, the CEE economies, which used to be EU priorities in the early ‘90s, have been effectively ignored.

China’s strong contribution to global economic prospects, which amounts to 30 percent of global economic growth, has supported the resilience of the CEE economies, even amid Washington’s unilateral trade wars.

Joint interests in peace and stability, trade and investment provide a deepening basis for 16+1 cooperation in the future.

Converging Chinese-German interests        

If CEE is China’s door to Eastern Europe, Germany remains the key to advanced Europe. Following the establishment of strategic partnership in 2014, Chinese-German relations have steadily broadened not just in trade and investment, but in technology and innovation.

While joint interests in the bilateral ties are increasing, the underlying environment is growing more challenging. As Chancellor Merkel seeks to sustain integrated EU, she has been under fire from Bavarian conservatives in her government, due to a challenge by Interior Minister Horst Seehofer about immigration policy.

For 60 years, Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has relied on its junior partner, the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU). The dispute about immigration has eroded the ties, even though Merkel contained the friction by agreeing to more hawkish immigration policy.

As German growth is slowing and German exporters have been harmed by U.S. trade friction, the political support of CDU and CSU has eroded, while the ratings social Democrats (SDP) have sunk to below 20 percent. The beneficiary of these trends is the radical right’s Alternative for Germany (AfD).

For now, Merkel’s cautious diplomacy does prevail in Berlin and Brussels, yet Trump’s trade stance will mean more headwinds in the fall.

China-EU cooperation              

While China is US tariffs’ first target; the next ones will include some of the largest trading economies in Europe, East Asia and Americas. In the process, the joint economic (trade and investment), political (international cooperation), even strategic interests (Iran, climate change) between China and the EU, and Germany, are converging.

Last week, Merkel explicitly warned President Trump not to unleash an all-out trade war after U.S. president threatened to impose steep tariffs against the EU. The White House is mulling import taxes of 20 percent on EU cars. The EU has already slapped tariffs on US products including bourbon, jeans and Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as a symbolic tit-for-tat response to the metals duties.

But that’s just a warning shot. Merkel has targeted Trump over his complaint that the EU, in particular Germany, is running a massive trade surplus against the US. These calculations are flawed because they are only based only on goods, not services in which US has a surplus against the EU. Accordingly, Merkel backs a “digital tax” that would target multinationals like Amazon, Facebook or Google, which have come under fire for shifting earnings around Europe to pay lower taxes.

Both Berlin and Brussels are beginning to face the inconvenient truth. Without a coordinated response, Trump’s “America First” doctrine will foster the risk of an all-out trade war, which would hurt global confidence, economic growth and credit.

Dr Steinbock is the founder of the Difference Group and has served as the research director at the India, China, and America Institute (USA) and a visiting fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more information, see http://www.differencegroup.net/

© 2018 Copyright Dan Steinbock - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules