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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Stocks Trying to Break Higher Again, Will They?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018 Jul 12, 2018 - 03:40 PM GMT

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stock-Markets

The S&P 500 index retraced some of its recent advance yesterday, as investors reacted to overnight trade tariffs announcement. Is this a new downtrend? Or just a downward correction before another leg higher? There are still two possible medium-term scenarios.

The U.S. stock market indexes lost between 0.6% and 0.9% on Wednesday, retracing some of their recent advance, as investors reacted to new trade tariffs announcement. The S&P 500 index has bounced off the resistance level of around 2,800. It currently trades 3.4% below the January's 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.9% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 0.6% on Wednesday.


The nearest important level of support of the S&P 500 index is at around 2,765-2,770, marked by yesterday's local low and Monday's daily gap up of 2,764.41-2,768.51. On the other hand, the resistance level is now at around 2,785, marked by yesterday's daily gap down of 2,785.91-2,786.24. The resistance level is also at 2,795-2,800, marked by the previous local highs from February, March and June. The level of resistance is also at 2,840, marked by January the 30th daily gap down.

The broad stock market broke above its recent trading range on Friday. Is this a new uptrend or just more medium-term fluctuations following January-February sell-off? If the S&P 500 index breaks above 2,800 mark, we could see more buying pressure. Perhaps we could see a move to new record high. However, there are still two possible medium-term scenarios - bearish that will lead us below the February low following trend line breakdown, and the bullish one in a form of medium-term double top pattern or a breakout towards 3,000 mark. There is also a chance that the market will just go sideways for some time, and that would be positive for bulls in the long run (some kind of an extended flat correction). The S&P 500 index broke below its two-month-long upward trend line recently, but it continued to trade above the level of 2,700:

Short-term Fluctuations, Just Correction Before Another Leg Up?

The index futures contracts trade 0.5-0.7% higher vs. their yesterday's closing prices. So expectations before the opening of today's trading session are quite positive. The main European stock market indexes have gained 0.6-0.8% so far. Investors will wait for the economic data announcements today: Consumer Price Index, Initial Claims at 8:30 a.m. The broad stock market will probably retrace some of its yesterday's decline today. For now, it looks like a short-term consolidation following the recent rally.

The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday uptrend, as it retraces some of its yesterday's decline. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,785-2,790, marked by the short-term local highs. The resistance level is also at 2,800. On the other hand, level of support is at 2,765-2,770, marked by the recent local lows. The futures contract trades above its two-session-long upward trend line, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

Nasdaq Closer to 7,300 Again

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract follows a similar path, as it trades within an intraday uptrend. The market has bounced off the resistance level of around 7,300-7,360, marked by the June's record high recently. Then it traded closer to 7,200 mark, before bouncing off that support level. The nearest support level is now at around 7,250. The Nasdaq futures contract trades along the level of 7,300 again, as the 15-minute chart shows:

Apple Lower, Amazon Higher - Big Cap Tech Stocks' Mixed Picture

Let's take a look at Apple, Inc. stock (AAPL) daily chart (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com). The stock slightly extended its Monday's advance on Tuesday, but it came back lower yesterday. There's still the resistance level of around $190-195. On the other hand, support level is now at around $185, marked by the previous level of resistance:

Now let's take a look at Amazon.com, Inc. stock (AMZN) daily chart. It got even closer to June the 21st record high of $1,763.10 yesterday. And we still can see some medium-term negative technical divergences. Will the market reverse here? There have been no confirmed negative signals so far:

Dow Jones - Uncertainty Below 25,000 Mark

The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke below its two-month-long upward trend line in the late June. Then it continued lower, as it fell below the level of 24,500. The blue-chip index kept bouncing off a potential support level of around 24,000-24,250 recently. It continued to trade along its 200-day moving average which eventually acted as a support level. Then on Monday the index broke above the resistance level of around 24,500. It currently trades within a consolidation below the level of 25,000:

The S&P 500 index retraced some of its recent advance yesterday, as it bounced off the resistance level of around 2,800. Is this a downward reversal or just quick correction before another leg higher? If the S&P 500 index breaks above 2,800, we could see a move towards the January highs. Overall, the market is still close to breaking above its medium-term consolidation.

Concluding, the broad stock market will likely open higher today. Investors' sentiment seems quite bullish despite yesterday's trade tariffs announcement. But we may see more short-term uncertainty, as the S&P 500 index trades relatively close to the recent months' highs.

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Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Stock Trading Alerts
SunshineProfits.com

Stock market strategist, who has been known for quality of his technical and fundamental analysis since the late nineties. He is interested in forecasting market behavior based on both traditional and innovative methods of technical analysis. Paul has made his name by developing mechanical trading systems. Paul is the author of Sunshine Profits’ premium service for stock traders: Stock Trading Alerts.

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Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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