Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
The Hottest Sports Stock Of 2020 - 23rd Sep 19
Stocks Wedge At The Edge – Front And Center - 23rd Sep 19
Stock Market Top Almost Confirmed - 23rd Sep 19
Thomas Cook COLLAPSE! 300,000 Passengers Stranded, Flights Cancelled, Planes Grounded - 23rd Sep 19
Massive Stock Market Price Reversion May Be Days or Weeks Away - 22nd Sep 19
How Russia Seized Control of the Uranium Market - 22nd Sep 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - 21st Sep 19
Is Stock Market Price Revaluation Event About To Happen? - 21st Sep 19
Gold Leads, Will the Rest Follow? - 21st Sep 19
Are Cowboys Really Dreaming of... Electric Trucks? - 21st Sep 19
Gold among Negative-Yielding Bonds - 20th Sep 19
Panicky Fed Flooding Overnight Markets with Cash - 20th Sep 19
Uber Stock Price Will Crash on November 6 - 20th Sep 19
Semiconductor Stocks Sector Market & Economic Leader - 20th Sep 19
Learning Artificial Intelligence - What is a Neural Network? - 20th Sep 19
Precious Metals Setting Up Another Momentum Base/Bottom - 20th Sep 19
Small Marketing Budget? No Problem! - 20th Sep 19
The Many Forex Trading Opportunities the Fed Day Has Dealt Us - 19th Sep 19
Fed Cuts Interest Rates and Gold Drops. Again - 19th Sep 19
Silver Still Cheap Relative to Gold, Trend Forecast Update Video - 19th Sep 19
Baby Boomers Are the Worst Investors in the World - 19th Sep 19
Your $1,229 FREE Tticket to Elliott Market Analysis & Trading Set-ups - 19th Sep 19
Is The Stock Market Other Shoe About To Drop With Fed News? - 19th Sep 19
Bitcoin Price 2019 Trend Current State - 18th Sep 19
No More Realtors… These Start-ups Will Buy Your House in Less than 20 Days - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bugs And Manipulation Theorists Unite – Another “Manipulation” Indictment - 18th Sep 19
Central Bankers' Desperate Grab for Power - 18th Sep 19
Oil Shock! Will War Drums, Inflation Fears Ignite Gold and Silver Markets? - 18th Sep 19
Importance Of Internal Rate Of Return For A Business - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bull Market Ultimate Upside Target - 17th Sep 19
Gold Spikes on the Saudi Oil Attacks: Can It Last? - 17th Sep 19
Stock Market VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means - 17th Sep 19
Philippines, China and US: Joint Exploration Vs Rearmament and Nuclear Weapons - 17th Sep 19
What Are The Real Upside Targets For Crude Oil Price Post Drone Attack? - 17th Sep 19
Curse of Technology Weapons - 17th Sep 19
Media Hypes Recession Whilst Trump Proposes a Tax on Savings - 17th Sep 19
Understanding Ways To Stretch Your Investments Further - 17th Sep 19
Trading Natural Gas As The Season Changes - 16th Sep 19
Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - 16th Sep 19
These Indicators Point to an Early 2020 Economic Downturn - 16th Sep 19
Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - 16th Sep 19
Stock Market Looking Toppy - 16th Sep 19
Is the Stocks Bull Market Nearing an End? - 16th Sep 19
US Stock Market Indexes Continue to Rally Within A Defined Range - 16th Sep 19
What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? - 16th Sep 19
A History Lesson For Pundits Who Don’t Believe Stocks Are Overvalued - 16th Sep 19
The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate - 16th Sep 19
Tech Giants Will Crash in the Next Stock Market Downturn - 15th Sep 19
Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? - 15th Sep 19
The Race to Depreciate Fiat Currencies Is Accelerating - 15th Sep 19
Can Crypto casino beat Hybrid casino - 15th Sep 19
British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - 14th Sep 19
Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - 14th Sep 19
War Gaming the US-China Trade War - 14th Sep 19
Buying a Budgie, Parakeet for the First Time from a Pet Shop - Jollyes UK - 14th Sep 19
Crude Oil Price Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation - 13th Sep 19
A “Looming” Recession Is a Gold Golden Opportunity - 13th Sep 19
Is 2019 Similar to 2007? What Does It Mean For Gold? - 13th Sep 19
How Did the Philippines Establish Itself as a World Leader in Call Centre Outsourcing? - 13th Sep 19
UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - 13th Sep 19
Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move - 13th Sep 19
Weakening Shale Productivity "VERY Bullish" For Oil Prices - 13th Sep 19
Stock Market Dow to 38,000 by 2022 - 13th Sep 19 - readtheticker
Gold under NIRP? | Negative Interest Rates vs Bullion - 12th Sep 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads and Discs's Replace, Dealer Check and Cost - 12th Sep 19
Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - 12th Sep 19
Increased Pension Liabilities During the Coming Stock Market Crash - 12th Sep 19
Gold at Support: the Upcoming Move - 12th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar, Stocks – How It All Relates – Part II - 12th Sep 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Invest in the Esports Revolution

Stock Market Outlook 2018 - Bullish or Bearish

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018 Jul 13, 2018 - 02:03 PM GMT

By: Sol_Palha

Stock-Markets There is no absurdity so palpable but that it may be firmly planted in the human head if you only begin to inculcate it before the age of five, by constantly repeating it with an air of great solemnity. Arthur Schopenhauer

Financial experts continue to state that the markets are going to crash, even though their record since this bull market started back in 2009 has been dismal to the say the least.  To complicate matters, some of these same experts suddenly jump ship and start to paint a bullish picture until the markets start to pull back. Then they falsely assume that the markets are going to crash and start singing the “market is going to crash” song again.



We have developments that would fall under the “perturbing” category; for example, this escalating trade war, which unfortunately China is destined to lose. Markets are forward-looking beasts, and the Chinese markets have all but given the Chinese leadership an almost nil chance of winning this battle. However, that’s a story for another day.

Market sentiment is not extremely bullish, though the bullish sentiment has been trending upwards since Feb of this year.  It has not remained in the extremely bullish ranges for weeks on end; market tops almost always occur after the sentiment trades in the extremely bullish ranges for weeks on end. Market sentiment instead has been whipsawing, and that is usually a sign of uncertainty and uncertainty is a very bullish development especially if the underlying trend is up. Crowd psychology states that one should only abandon the ship when the masses are euphoric. As that’s not the case, there is no reason to abandon the ship.

The Market has shed some weight, but given the massive run-up, this market has experienced this falls well within the normal ranges of an acceptable correction. In fact, the Dow could drop all the way to 21,500 without having any effect on the trend.

Our alternative Dow Theory states that the Dow follows the Utilities and unless the utilities drop to new lows the markets will continue trading within a wide range.  The utilities have held up very well when one considers all the outside factors;  for example, an extremely volatile geopolitical situation (trade wars, disputes with our NATO allies, etc.) and the extremely polarised way the masses are behaving gives one the impression that we are just one step away from a civil war.

Dow Utilities June 2018.png

The utilities have a very strong layer of support in the 633-650 ranges. It would take a monthly close below 630 for the tone to turn from bullish to potentially bearish.  As there is a fortress of support in this zone, for now, it’s a low probability event.  The Tactical Investor Dow Theory states that one should pay attention to the utilities and not the transports. Therefore unless the utilities put in new lows, the market is unlikely to take out its recent lows.

Most Major financial sites nowadays are on par with tabloids; their sole function is to create bombastic titles with little to no subject matter to back their faulty assertions.     Take Advice from such distinguished sites with a barrel of salt and a shot of whiskey. Focus on Mass Psychology and identify the sentiment that’s driving the masses.  The Crowd drives the markets, and if you identify the emotion that’s driving them, you can determine the trend of the market. As we stated before bullish sentiment from a longer-term perspective has been trending upwards, but the masses are not dancing in the streets, so a correction (which is what the market is currently experiencing) instead of a crash is the most probable outcome. 

Anxiety 4.jpg

The Dow transports are also holding up well which is a bonus as that’s not a prerequisite of the Alternative Dow Theory; unless they trade below 9500 on a monthly basis, the outlook will remain bullish.  The trend is your friend as everything else is your foe.  

Dow transports June 2018.png

Conclusion

While there are a lot of negative factors out there that could be used to paint a very bearish picture, market sentiment and price action are not supportive of a stock market crash outlook.  However, as the market has experienced a huge run, this current rout should be embraced for the market is letting out a well-deserved dose of steam.  Experts have you believe that Bull Markets only trend upwards, but that’s an assertion that’s on par with rubbish. Nothing trends upwards in a straight line and even the strongest bull has to take a breather.

While the situation could turn ugly in the future, focussing on something that has yet to materialise is a recipe for missing the train and trying to play catch up later.  As this is a mature bull Market, employing proper money management techniques such as stops, should prevent you from being caught off guard.

Our focus at this time is on mass sentiment and the internal structure of this market.  The masses are not euphoric but the markets are still trading in the overbought ranges on the monthly charts, and so from a technical basis more range bound action should be expected. As the trend is positive,  consider putting the following slogan into play “the stronger the deviation, the better the opportunity

Iteration, like friction, is likely to generate heat instead of progress.

George Eliot

by Sol Palha

www.tacticalinvestor.com

Sol Palha is a market analyst and educator who uses Mass Psychology, Technical Analysis and Esoteric Cycles to keep you on the right side of the market. He and his partners are on the web at www.tacticalinvestor.com.

© 2018 Copyright Sol Palha- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Sol Palha Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules