Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
Risk/Reward in Silver Favors Buying Now, Not Waiting for Big Moves - 23rd Mar 19
Similarities Between Stock Market Today and Previous Bull Market Tops - 23rd Mar 19
Stock Market DOW Seasonal Trend Analysis - 23rd Mar 19
US Dollar Breakdown on Fed Was Much Worse Than It Looks - 23rd Mar 19
Gold Mid-Tier GDXJ Stocks Fundamentals - 23rd Mar 19
Which Currency Pairs Stand to Benefit from Prevailing Risk Aversion? - 23rd Mar 19
If You Get These 3 Things Right, You’ll Never Have to Worry About Money - 22nd Mar 19
March 2019 Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis - 22nd Mar 19
Turkey Tourist Fakes Market Bargains Haggling Top Tips - 22nd Mar 19
Next Recession: Finding A 48% Yield Amid The Ruins - 22nd Mar 19
Your Future Stock Returns Might Unpleasantly Surprise You - 22nd Mar 19
Fed Acknowledges “Recession Risks”. Run for the Hills! - 22nd Mar 19
Will Bridging Loans Grow in Demand and Usage in 2019? - 22nd Mar 19
Does Fed Know Something Gold Investors Do Not Know? - 21st Mar 19
Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For - 21st Mar 19
UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party - 21st Mar 19
A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security - 20th Mar 19
The Secret to Funding a Green New Deal - 20th Mar 19
Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation - 20th Mar 19
Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? - 20th Mar 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19
Tommy Robinson Looks Set to Become New UKIP Leader - 16th Mar 19
Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - 16th Mar 19
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult - 16th Mar 19
UKIP Brexit Facebook Groups Reveling in the New Zealand Terror Attacks Blaming Muslim Victims - 16th Mar 19
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index - 16th Mar 19
Islamophobic Hate Preachers Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins have Killed UKIP and Brexit - 16th Mar 19
Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally - 15th Mar 19
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 - 15th Mar 19
Setting up a Business Just Got Easier - 15th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video - 15th Mar 19
Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 - 15th Mar 19
UK Weather SHOCK - Trees Dropping Branches onto Cars in Stormy Winds - Sheffield - 15th Mar 19
Best Time to Trade Forex - 15th Mar 19
Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof - 14th Mar 19
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? - 14th Mar 19
US Conservatism - 14th Mar 19
Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading - 14th Mar 19
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - 14th Mar 19
Why Walmart Will Crush Amazon - 14th Mar 19
2019 Economic Predictions - 14th Mar 19
Tax Avoidance Bills Sent to Thousands of Workers - 14th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

Stock Market Correction Ahead, But When?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018 Sep 16, 2018 - 08:48 AM GMT

By: Harry_Dent

Stock-Markets The broader stock market via the S&P 500 finally broke to new highs in August, while they drifted insignificantly lower on Wednesday.

And as Adam O’Dell recently commented, that typically means substantially higher highs ahead… like 13% plus.

What does this mean for my great crash forecast?

Well, my favored scenario right now, with the strong tax cuts Trump handed us, is that the great bubble peak comes in late 2019, not now.


There are also many indicators to support this, including my new 90-year “Great Reset and Bubble Buster Cycle,” which Andrew Pancholi, my co-author on Zero Hour, first suggested to me. I have since found more reasons to get serious about its importance.

It’s a cycle that brought us the two greatest resets since the Industrial Revolution: the first in 1873 to 1843, the second from 1929 to 1933.

But there are some indicators that suggest the possibility that markets don’t go a lot higher before they peak. The more trusted indicators of the past may not work that well now that massive government intervention has turned everything upside down. Markets are “not so free” anymore!

In the September Boom & Bust issue I discuss both scenarios and talk about the potential of a surprise crash just ahead. Let’s explore that a little now…

Bigger Than Before, But Not Imminent

The Smart Money Flow Index strongly suggests that we’re heading toward a larger crash than the prior two, but it’s not necessarily imminent. They have not been buying into the rally of 2018!

Goldman Sachs has a Bull/Bear Sentiment indicator that is now at an extreme 75% bullish reading. It hit a 70%-bullish level near the 2007 top and 72%-bullish level near the 2000 greater bubble top.

Both of these indicators warn of a major top coming, not a minor one.

But I’ve been warning this for years now, so this is nothing new!

Really, the question is: WHEN?!

There is a nearer-term indicator warning of at least a minor correction ahead, even though most stock indices have made new highs. This could just be another correction on the way up… but also, if it continues to build, it could be another warning of the larger crash ahead.

When stocks make new highs, the volatility indicator (VIX) tends to make new lows. When new lows in the VIX don’t confirm new highs in stocks, that is a divergence that suggests some level of correction is coming.

We’re seeing this divergence “starting” to form now, as the chart shows…

https://economyandmarkets.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/VIX-Divergence-ENM.jpg

Most analysts typically look at periods when this happens, but Tom McClellan of the highly respected McClellan Oscillator indicator has come up with a better way to measure this divergence (and how it builds) more directly and obviously.

When his 10-day Correlation Indicator spikes up, it means lower volatility in the smart-trader options market is NOT confirming higher stock prices.

But, as you can see in the chart, such a counter market trend tends to build typically over three, or even four surges before it peaks, and stocks finally correct.

We’re only in the second surge right now. That’s why I emphasized “starting” to form before.

Possible Triggers…

My overall reading of these indicators (and more) is that we have at least a minor setback just ahead. But my more bullish scenario still favors Adam’s historical analysis of a near 15% rally ahead, well into 2019… a rally that could see the Dow hit as high as 30,000!

But we can’t ignore Trump’s political meltdown and legal storm or the trade wars… They’ll impact the markets… and maybe now, much sooner than later.

In this manipulated, un-free market, it’s going to take a few more months to get clearer indications on likely outcomes – especially after the mid-term elections. That’s why this is the theme of my presentation at this year’s Irrational Economic Summit in Austin, Texas (October 25-27).

It’s also why I discuss this in my September issue of Boom & Bust.

And it’s why I also focus more deeply on that 90-year great reset cycle in my upcoming issue of The Leading Edge, where I look more in depth at the most important issue facing investors: Are we about to peak near term in the final phase of the greatest stock bubble in history… or do we have a more minor correction in the next two to five months and then see the final peak on our now most powerful 90-year cycle around late 2019 (which would create a nearly identical event to the late 1929 to 1932 crash 90 years ago)?

That’s the trillion-dollar question for the U.S. and global economy!

It’s the million-dollar question for your family, investments, and business.

We’re going to be on this like a fly on… and when we see or hear anything that brings more clarity to this, we’ll let you know immediately.

Harry

http://economyandmarkets.com

Follow me on Twitter @HarryDentjr

Harry studied economics in college in the ’70s, but found it vague and inconclusive. He became so disillusioned by the state of the profession that he turned his back on it. Instead, he threw himself into the burgeoning New Science of Finance, which married economic research and market research and encompassed identifying and studying demographic trends, business cycles, consumers’ purchasing power and many, many other trends that empowered him to forecast economic and market changes.

Copyright © 2018 Harry Dent- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Harry Dent Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules