Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Next Financial Crisis Is Already Here! John Lewis 99% Profits CRASH - Retail Sector Collapse - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Why Is Apple Giving This Tiny Stock A $900 Million Opportunity? - James Burgess
3.Gold Price Trend Analysis - - Nadeem_Walayatt
4.The Beginning of the End of the Dollar - Richard_Mills
5.Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Hindenburg Omen & Consumer Confidence: More Signs of Stock Market Trouble in 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
7.Precious Metals Sector: It’s 2013 All Over Again - P_Radomski_CFA
8.Central Banks Have Gone Rogue, Putting Us All at Risk - Ellen_Brown
9.Gold Stocks Forced Capitulation - Zeal_LLC
10.The Post Bubble Market Contraction Thesis Receives Validation - Plunger
Last 7 days
Silver's Time Is Coming - 17th Oct 18
Stock Market Volatility Breeds Contempt - 17th Oct 18
Gold 7-Year Bear Market Phase Is Over - 17th Oct 18
Gold - A Golden Escape - 17th Oct 18
Tec Stocks Sector Set For A Rebound? - 16th Oct 18
Real Estate Transactions are Becoming Seamless with Blockchain-Powered Data Sets - 16th Oct 18
Important Elements of a Viral Landing Page - 16th Oct 18
Stephen Leeb Predicts 3-Digit Silver and 5 Digit Gold?! - 16th Oct 18
BREXIT, Italy’s Deficit, The EU Summit And Fomcs Minutes In Focus - 16th Oct 18
Is this the Start of a Bear Market for Stocks? - 16th Oct 18
Chinese Economic Prospects Amid US Trade Wars - 16th Oct 18
2019’s Hottest Commodity Is About To Explode - 15th Oct 18
Keep A Proper Perspective About Stock Market Recent Move - 15th Oct 18
Is the Stocks Bull Dead? - 15th Oct 18
Stock Market Bottoms are a Process - 15th Oct 18
Fed is Doing More Than Just Raising Rates - 14th Oct 18
Stock Markets Last Cheap Sector - Gold - 14th Oct 18
Next Points for Crude Oil Bears - 13th Oct 18
Stock Market Crash: Time to Buy Stocks? - 12th Oct 18
Sheffield Best Secondary School Clusters for 2018-19 Place Applications - 12th Oct 18
Trump’s Tariffs Echo US Trade Policy That Led to the Great Depression - 12th Oct 18
US Dollar Engulfing Bearish Pattern Warns Of Dollar Weakness - 12th Oct 18
Stock Market Storm Crash, Dow Plunges to Trend Forecast! - 12th Oct 18
SP500 Stock Market Sell Off Well Forecast by President Trump - 11th Oct 18
USD and US Tr. Yields Retreat, GBP Gains on Brexit-deal Report - 11th Oct 18
Loss Of Yield Curve "Shock Absorber" Could Mean A Rough Ride Ahead For Markets & Housing - 11th Oct 18
Just How Bearish is the Stock Market’s Breadth? - 11th Oct 18
Here’s Why Gold Stocks, Gold, and Silver Are Great Buys Now - 10th Oct 18
Russian Ruble Technical Chart Analysis and Forecast - 10th Oct 18
Society Trends To Keep in Mind in the USA - 10th Oct 18
[eBook] How to Identify Turning Points in the Market - 10th Oct 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Any Market

Stock Market Sell Off, Dollar Rally Expected, Now What?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018 Oct 08, 2018 - 09:40 AM GMT

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Stock-Markets This has been a most difficult stock and precious metals market to forecast. I am fortunate to have made my clients over 18% the past 6 weeks. Yesterday, I went to cash after having cashed my volatility (UVXY), short GDX (DUST) and short SPX (SPXS) ETF.

The VIX futures went into backwardation Friday, and the last two times this occurred was February 2, 2018 and August 21, 2016. The next trading day took the SPX down about 4% on each occasion.  We have had horrible internals and the momentum indicators have not confirmed the recent topping action, so anything is possible.


Normally, coming off a top, there is a period of sideways congestion called a bear flag before such a move like what the backwardation is suggesting happens.  If sell-off is to be the case, I think it would be obvious enough to join the party on Monday to the short side. The actual 8 TD low is due on Monday plus or minus, so we’ll see.

The QQQ (NASDAQ 100) looks like it is near a Z wave bottom and that is usually bullish, so we have conflicting signals.  The SPX has a low due around Oct 17 and the SPX chart supports a move to near 2791/92 by that date.

Normally, when a rising wedge is broken, there is a snap back to the wedge and sometimes inside the wedge before it drops further.  We have not seen that yet.

The 8 TD top off the 16 TD top on the SPX came right on time for the SPX on Wednesday.  The next 16 TD top is due Oct 15. Do we rally from Monday or Tuesday next week until the 15th? Do we rally to new highs?

Even with all the bearish leanings, this market has a way of slapping the heck out of the bears. This is why I’ve been quick to take profits on my shorts, even sometimes a little early.

The dollar rallied like I thought, so I give myself an A for that forecast.  The metals stayed strong during the rally, which I thought could go either way. Actually, this is a strong sign that the metals are about to enjoy the next phase of the rally.



 My best guess is 20.50-21.00 on GDX for the next phase, which could take place by around Oct 18th. The cycle analysis suggests a top in early November. GDX looks like it could go down into the 9th and there is a Bradley turn due on October 9th also. It remains to be seen.

My longer term forecast suggests new highs ahead into next year, at least into mid year and a possible 20% pull back into October 2019.  If we get this pull back, we may get a delay of the coming great reset until 2021-23/24. It looks like a 90%+ crash is possible.

Eagles Over America is setting up communities of people who are getting ready for this crash.  It is during these times in history that there been great transfers of wealth. For more information about our membership, please go to http://eaglesoveramerica.com

Brad Gudgeon

Editor of The BluStar Market Timer

www.blustarmarkettimer.info

The BluStar Market Timer was rated #1 in the world by Timer Trac in 2014, competing with over 1600 market timers. This occurred despite what the author considered a very difficult year for him. Brad Gudgeon, editor and author of the BluStar Market Timer, is a market veteran of over 30 years. The website is www.blustarmarkettimer.info To view the details more clearly, you may visit our free chart look atwww.blustarmarkettimer.com

Copyright 2018, BluStar Market Timer.  All rights reserved.
Disclaimer:  The above information is not intended as investment advice.  Market timers can and do make mistakes.  The above analysis is believed to be reliable, but we cannot be responsible for losses should they occur as a result of using this information.  This article is intended for educational purposes only. Past performance is never a guarantee of future performance.

Brad Gudgeon Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules