Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Bitcoin Price 2019 Trend Current State - 18th Sep 19
No More Realtors… These Start-ups Will Buy Your House in Less than 20 Days - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bugs And Manipulation Theorists Unite – Another “Manipulation” Indictment - 18th Sep 19
Central Bankers' Desperate Grab for Power - 18th Sep 19
Oil Shock! Will War Drums, Inflation Fears Ignite Gold and Silver Markets? - 18th Sep 19
Importance Of Internal Rate Of Return For A Business - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bull Market Ultimate Upside Target - 17th Sep 19
Gold Spikes on the Saudi Oil Attacks: Can It Last? - 17th Sep 19
Stock Market VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means - 17th Sep 19
Philippines, China and US: Joint Exploration Vs Rearmament and Nuclear Weapons - 17th Sep 19
What Are The Real Upside Targets For Crude Oil Price Post Drone Attack? - 17th Sep 19
Curse of Technology Weapons - 17th Sep 19
Media Hypes Recession Whilst Trump Proposes a Tax on Savings - 17th Sep 19
Understanding Ways To Stretch Your Investments Further - 17th Sep 19
Trading Natural Gas As The Season Changes - 16th Sep 19
Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - 16th Sep 19
These Indicators Point to an Early 2020 Economic Downturn - 16th Sep 19
Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - 16th Sep 19
Stock Market Looking Toppy - 16th Sep 19
Is the Stocks Bull Market Nearing an End? - 16th Sep 19
US Stock Market Indexes Continue to Rally Within A Defined Range - 16th Sep 19
What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? - 16th Sep 19
A History Lesson For Pundits Who Don’t Believe Stocks Are Overvalued - 16th Sep 19
The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate - 16th Sep 19
Tech Giants Will Crash in the Next Stock Market Downturn - 15th Sep 19
Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? - 15th Sep 19
The Race to Depreciate Fiat Currencies Is Accelerating - 15th Sep 19
Can Crypto casino beat Hybrid casino - 15th Sep 19
British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - 14th Sep 19
Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - 14th Sep 19
War Gaming the US-China Trade War - 14th Sep 19
Buying a Budgie, Parakeet for the First Time from a Pet Shop - Jollyes UK - 14th Sep 19
Crude Oil Price Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation - 13th Sep 19
A “Looming” Recession Is a Gold Golden Opportunity - 13th Sep 19
Is 2019 Similar to 2007? What Does It Mean For Gold? - 13th Sep 19
How Did the Philippines Establish Itself as a World Leader in Call Centre Outsourcing? - 13th Sep 19
UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - 13th Sep 19
Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move - 13th Sep 19
Weakening Shale Productivity "VERY Bullish" For Oil Prices - 13th Sep 19
Stock Market Dow to 38,000 by 2022 - 13th Sep 19 - readtheticker
Gold under NIRP? | Negative Interest Rates vs Bullion - 12th Sep 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads and Discs's Replace, Dealer Check and Cost - 12th Sep 19
Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - 12th Sep 19
Increased Pension Liabilities During the Coming Stock Market Crash - 12th Sep 19
Gold at Support: the Upcoming Move - 12th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar, Stocks – How It All Relates – Part II - 12th Sep 19
Boris Johnson's "Do or Die, Dead in a Ditch" Brexit Strategy - 11th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar: How It All Relates – Part I - 11th Sep 19
Bank of England’s Carney Delivers Dollar Shocker at Jackson Hole meeting - 11th Sep 19
Gold and Silver Wounded Animals, Indeed - 11th Sep 19
Boris Johnson a Crippled Prime Minister - 11th Sep 19
Gold Significant Correction Has Started - 11th Sep 19
Reasons To Follow Experienced Traders In Automated Trading - 11th Sep 19
Silver's Sharp Reaction Back - 11th Sep 19
2020 Will Be the Most Volatile Market Year in History - 11th Sep 19
Westminister BrExit Extreme Chaos Puts Britain into a Pre-Civil War State - 10th Sep 19
Gold to Correct as Stocks Rally - 10th Sep 19
Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - 10th Sep 19
Stock Market Sector Rotation Giving Mixed Signals About The Future - 10th Sep 19
The Online Gaming Industry is Going Up - 10th Sep 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Trading Charts and Setups: Chances of a FED Interest Rate Hike Falling

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018 Nov 26, 2018 - 05:16 PM GMT

By: FXCOT

Stock-Markets

As equity markets make a topping formation and US 10 year yield retest 3% level, the chances of a FED hike in 2019 is declining. Govt pressure will build up on Powell into 2019 and we believe this will damage FED ability to freely raise rates even if they wish to. We highlight a few key charts and setups to watch out for as you start a new trading week.

2018 has been a difficult years for every single asset class. The mutual fund industry is bleeding and hedge fund managers are struggling to stay afloat. Traditional investment models do not work any more. This is a year in which both bonds and stocks fell together. Traditional models work on shifting money from one asset class to another. However this year, all classes bled. This year, set apart the genius managers from the ordinary. Fxcot trading system which is primarily a EURUSD, USDJPY trading system has made over 90% this year which is truly incredible given the performance of hedge funds.


As you can observe, everything lost money on a YTD basis. However Fxcot trading system made over 90% return. If you want to know more or take a trial of our systems, please send us a email at teamcot@fxcot.com or reach out to us at our site.

Equity: Choppiness ahead

The SPX is looking increasingly likely to form a base at 2600. It is a are of solid support. Expect range based moves between 2550 and 2950 over the next 6 months. Economy is doing just ok while FED scales back expectation of any agressive hikes into 2019. Equity markets will slowly form a top over the next few months before the correction begins in 2019 somwhere near March/April.

USDJPY: Looks a two way trade

USDJPY is going to react to the falling US yields at some point. We suspect that the next move in USDJPY could be down. However a move above 113.7 will neutralise our downward bias and we will be looking to long at 113.9.

US 10 year yield: Is it a trend change ?

The US 10 year yield has contracted from 3.15% to 3.050%. This is reflecting

Iron Ore: Not as negative as it sounds

According to Metal Bulletin, the price for benchmark 62% fines slumped 2.8% to $70.13 a tonne, leaving it at the lowest level since October 8. It’s now lost 9.2% since November 9, including 6.1% in the past three sessions alone. However they are well above the 2018 lows seen in low 60s. So while the dollar had rallied above 97, Iron ore continued to be above the lows. Good buying despite the recent falls. Once dollar starts to weaken, Iron ore could pickup fairly sharply to 80$.

AUDUSD is above 50 DMA suggesting a trend change in its downward direction. We see a confirmation of our thesis that AUDUSD will move to equilibrium to 7400.

However the DBC which is the commodity tracking fund is own to 2018 lows. It tells us that it is oversold and hence a bounce is expected. That will help commodities to rise.

The XLU is the defensive ETF

and is driven by utilities. Smart Money often moves into this ETF before market correction. As things stand now, we see XLU weakening after breaking above to new highs and then dipping below. We see a period of choppy action in XLU into year end. This suggests that equity markets generally will not see any deep correction and will recover starting 2019.

The financial ETF which preruns a broader equity rally, is consolidating at 26. There was a dip to 25 but then a recovery suggesting that the downward momentum has been broken. However only above the strong resistance at 27-28 can we confirm that the current downtrend is fully over.Watch those levels.

Fxcot.com is a trading and investment management firm, so our advice is more tuned to help you position for investing. We run one of the best forex trading programs making over 100% return every single year since 2010. If you are interested, please fill the form here: Contact us. You can simply email us at teamcot@fxcot.com.

Our trading system is explained here: FXCOT Trading system

Teamcot

FXCOT is Investment Management firm specializing in futures and forex trading. We run a high return trading system for our premier clients. The trading systems uses four different strategies to take advantage of various market conditions. We also send daily trade setups and economic commentary.

© 2018 Copyright FXCOT - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules