Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
South Korea Coronavirus Outbreak Data Analysis Warning Rate of Infection is Exponential! - 26th Feb 20
Gold Price Long-term Trend Analysis Forecast 2020 - 26th Feb 20
Fake Markets Are on Collision Course with Reality - 26th Feb 20
Microsoft is Crushing the S&P 500, Secret Trait Of Stocks That Soar 1,000%+ - 26th Feb 20
Europe's Best Ski Resorts For The Ultimate Adventure - 26th Feb 20
Samsung Galaxy S20+ vs Galaxy S10+ Which One to Buy? - 26th Feb 20
Gold Is Taking on $1,700 amid Rising Coronavirus Fears - 26th Feb 20
Is This What Falling Through the Floor Looks Like in Stocks? - 26th Feb 20
Gold Minsky Moment Coming - 26th Feb 20
Why Every Student Should Study Economics - 26th Feb 20
Stock Market Correction Over? - 26th Feb 20
US Bond Market Yield Curve Patterns – What To Expect In 2020 - 25th Feb 20
Has Stock Market Waterfall Event Started Or A Buying Opportunity? - 25th Feb 20
Coronavirus IN Sheffield! Royal Hallamshire Hospital treating 2 infected Patients, UK - 25th Feb 20
Dow Short-term Trend Analysis - Coronavirus Trigger a Stocks Bear Market? - 24th Feb 20
Sustained Silver Rally Coming? - 24th Feb 20
Should Investors Worry about Repo Market and Buy Gold? - 24th Feb 20
Are FANG Technology Stocks Setting Up For A Market Crash? - 24th Feb 20
Gold Above $1,600 Amid FOMC Minutes and Coronavirus Impact - 24th Feb 20
CoronaVirus Pandemic Day 76 Trend Forecast Update - Infected 540k, Minus China 1715, Deaths 4920 - 23rd Feb 20 -
Ways to Find Startup Capital - 23rd Feb 20
Stock Market Deviation from Overall Outlook for 2020 - 22nd Feb 20
The Shanghai Composite and Coronavirus: A Revealing Perspective - 22nd Feb 20
Baltic Dry, Copper, Oil, Tech and China Continue Call for Stock Market Crash Soon - 22nd Feb 20
Gold Warning – This is Not a Buying Opportunity - 22nd Feb 20
Is The Technology Sector FANG Stocks Setting Up For A Market Crash? - 22nd Feb 20
Coronavirus China Infection Statistics Analysis, Probability Forecasts 1/2 Million Infected - 21st Feb 20
Is Crude Oil Firmly on the Upswing Now? - 20th Feb 20
What Can Stop the Stocks Bull – Or At Least, Make It Pause? - 20th Feb 20
Trump and Economic News That Drive Gold, Not Just Coronavirus - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus COVID19 UK Infection Prevention, Boosting Immune Systems, Birmingham, Sheffield - 20th Feb 20
Silver’s Valuable Insights Into the Upcoming PMs Rally - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus Coming Storm Act Now to Protect Yourselves and Family to Survive COVID-19 Pandemic - 19th Feb 20
Future Silver Prices Will Shock People, and They’ll Kick Themselves for Not Buying Under $20… - 19th Feb 20
What Alexis Kennedy Learned from Launching Cultist Simulator - 19th Feb 20
Stock Market Potential Short-term top - 18th Feb 20
Coronavirus Fourth Turning - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 18th Feb 20
The Stocks Hit Worst From the Coronavirus - 18th Feb 20
Tips on Pest Control: How to Prevent Pests and Rodents - 18th Feb 20
Buying a Custom Built Gaming PC From Overclockers.co.uk - 1. Delivery and Unboxing - 17th Feb 20
BAIDU (BIDU) Illustrates Why You Should NOT Invest in Chinese Stocks - 17th Feb 20
Financial Markets News Report: February 17, 2020 - February 21, 2020 - 17th Feb 20
NVIDIA (NVDA) GPU King For AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 17th Feb 20
Stock Market Bubble - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 17th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020 - 16th Feb 20
SAMSUNG AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 16th Feb 20
Ignore the Polls, the Markets Have Already Told You Who Wins in 2020 - 16th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic WARNING! Sheffield, Manchester, Birmingham Outbreaks Probable - 16th Feb 20
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 15th Feb 20
Gold Stocks Still Stalled - 15th Feb 20
Is The Technology Stocks Sector Setting Up For A Crash? - 15th Feb 20
UK Calm Before Corona Virus Storm - Infections Forecast into End March 2020 - 15th Feb 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

China Golden Week Sales Exceed Expectations

Economics / China Economy Oct 11, 2019 - 03:15 PM GMT

By: Dan_Steinbock

Economics In contrast to gloomy international projections, economic realities suggest that China’s Golden Week may have exceeded expectations.

I spent China’s 70-year National Day festivities in Shanghai, China's global financial hub, and Guangzhou, the global trade hub of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. In both, China’s massive transition toward consumption and innovation is now an increasing reality.

Due to US tariff wars, Chinese mass consumers – like their peers in the United States, Europe and Japan – are cost-conscious, increasingly discriminate and sophisticated in their spending. Indeed, sales of gold jewelry boomed during the holidays, fueled by gold prices, holiday festivities and the wedding season.


But unlike their counterparts in advanced economies where middle-classes are shrinking, Chinese middle classes continue to grow, expand and consume. That is the great opportunity in China and abroad alike.

The just-ended Golden Week is a case in point.

Golden Week retail sales 8.5% up                

In effect, China has two “Golden Week” holidays; the Lunar New Year around January and February, and the National Day week in early October. Both are seen as a barometer for Chinese private consumption, due to gift-giving, family reunions, thriving retail and catering.

Last February, the Lunar New Year showed the slowest increase in years, according to international media. Yet, Chinese retail sales actually rose almost 7% from a year earlier.

Prior to the National Day Golden Week, once again, much of international media expected the trade wars to undermine Chinese holiday sales. And again, they were proved wrong. During the holidays, retail sales growth exceeded China’s growth rate by almost a half, with online sales soaring even higher.

During the Golden Week, Chinese retail and catering businesses saw sales of $213 billion, up 8.5% on the same period last year (spending on consumer services is not yet included, but will be released later in the month). New highlights featured spending on tourism, culture and sports, and “first-store economy”; that is, new brands launching their first brick-and-mortal stores.

These figures do not include the highly-popular discount sales that follow after the Golden Week.

Golden Week tourism revenues 8.5% up as well             

Prior to the Golden Week, much of international media expected Chinese consumers to cut back on travel, due to trade wars and weaker yuan. In reality. Chinese people may have spent more than ever before at home and abroad.

During the past week, there were 520 million trips on all modes of transportation, with the number of rail passengers up 5.2% on the same period last year, according to the Ministry of Transport. At home, many visited Beijing, Shanghai, Xi’an, Chengdu, Chongqing and Xiamen. Abroad, the top locations featured Japan, Thailand, Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, even Australia.

In the first Golden Week in 1999, only 29 million Chinese traveled, and all of them domestically. During the past week, almost 780 million domestic tourists – more than half of the mainland’s population – hit the road for vacations; an increase of 7.8% year-on-year. It was the greatest holiday migration in history.

Domestic tourism revenue soared to more than $90 billion; an increase of 8.5% on an annual basis, according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. Alipay, China’s leading and smooth online payment platform, confirmed that catering, travel and retail fueled domestic consumption during the holidays.

Currently, every 10th of the 1.4 billion Chinese holds a passport for international travel; that’s a potential of 140 million potential outbound travelers. With increasing prosperity, that figure is expected to double in the next decade.

Rise of Chinese consumption            

No global brand can afford to ignore Chinese market any longer. In 2019, China’s economic growth is likely to be around 6%. Yet, in-store sales are estimated at 9% and online shopping at 24% year on yearly basis, according to KPMG.

Similarly, China’s consumer retail market is no longer a dream of the future. Last year, it grew 8% to $5.3 trillion. The Golden week is the country’s second-biggest shopping bonanza, right after Chinese New Year.

Despite US trade protectionism, Chinese tourists reportedly spent $128 billion overseas in the first half of the year. More than half of that was used in Asia, a fourth in the Americas and much of the rest in Europe. The Golden Week sales suggest that a similar pace will prevail toward year-end.

Last week, the biggest airport in the world was opened in Beijing. It was a prelude to the mid-2020s, when China will surpass the US as the largest aviation market, according to the International Air Transport Association. In two decades, Chinese airports could serve 1.6 billion passengers annually.

As China’s middle classes continue to increase and per capita incomes to grow, domestic and global retail and tourism will be major beneficiaries. China’s rise supports economic prospects at home and abroad. As the Golden Week demonstrated, Chinese consumption is now a global force.

Dr. Dan Steinbock is the founder of Difference Group and has served at the India, China and America Institute (US), Shanghai Institute for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see http://www.differencegroup.net/  

© 2019 Copyright Dan Steinbock - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Dan Steinbock Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules