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Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis 2020

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020 Jan 30, 2020 - 12:50 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Commodities

The gold bull market ended 2019 with a strong gain of 19%. The first half the year was marked with uncertainty as the price after an early year surge to $1350 gave up all of it's gains to drift lower to trade down on the year by early May. However, this was the calm before the bull market storm and that set the stage for a powerful bull run starting early June that saw the Gold price rocket higher to a early September peak of $1566, up over 25% on the year! Igniting Gold bug fever and encouraging prominent gold bugs to get carried away with headlines of Gold heading for $5000 and beyond.


However, the September high marked the start of a period of consolidation that just went on and on all the way into the end of November when off a $1446 low the Gold bull finally awoke with the price starting to trend higher once more, to end the year at $1520. With Gold rocketing to above the September high taking place early January when the drama queen in the White house launched his own rockets with the risks of igniting a new war in the Middle East, that luckily Iran proved incompetent at countering, including shooting down a passenger plane by mistake. This illustrates that we are living in an age of being ruled by MORONS! And whilst all this is going on the British media are wholly focused on just ONE story, MEGAN and HARRY tripe!

SEASONAL ANALYSIS

The most reliable seasonal patterns are for a strong January and February, followed by a weak period spanning March to July. Strong August and September, followed by a volatile uptrend into the end of the year.

As witnessed for 2019, December starts weak but ends strongly, so in reality early year Gold bull trends start during Mid December and continue into late February. Followed by a trading range of sorts and drift into June, with base building during June and July followed by a strong August and usually strong September, though the bull trend may not survive into the end of the month as happened during 2019. With usually a bullish bias for October to the end of December, where for 2019 we saw continued drift into early November as it took the market some time to digest the earlier bull run.

So the implied pattern is for stronger bull runs followed by lengthier periods for digestion during 2020. Which means when Gold enters a corrective period investors need to show PATIENCE, as gold is likely spend more time correcting than rallying. Which means there may not be much upside in the immediate future. Instead the Gold price looks likely to be entering a lengthy corrective period that could last until the second half of 2020!

GOLD TREND ANALYSIS 2020

The rest of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work: Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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