Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
How Stagflation Effects Stocks - 5th Dec 21
Bitcoin FLASH CRASH! Cryptos Blood Bath as Exchanges Run Stops, An Early Christmas Present for Some? - 5th Dec 21
TESCO Pre Omicron Panic Christmas Decorations Festive Shop 2021 - 5th Dec 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 4th Dec 21
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space - 4th Dec 21
Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold - 4th Dec 21
GOLD HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE - 4th Dec 21
4 Tips To Help You Take Better Care Of Your Personal Finances- 4th Dec 21
What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? - 4th Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

When Will UK Coronavirus Crisis Imrpove - Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory Analysis

Politics / Pandemic Apr 08, 2020 - 12:57 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectory Current State

At times it can be difficult not to be swept along with the NHS wave that has gripped Britain, the clapping and cheering, and stories of Nightingale hospitals coming on stream with thousands of beds. But the same dynamics are at work here, i.e. a high percentage of people on ventilators eventually dying and a surge in the number of patients, so one should take media stories focused on the 15,000 or so of extra beds across Britain's Nightingale hospitals with a pinch of salt, as likely they will not turn out to be anywhere near as effective as people believe them to be should they end up in a Nightingale hospital. So more a publicity stunt than building effective extra capacity.


My trend forecast as of 22nd of March concluded in the UK trending towards 123,000 infected tested positive, and 8,100 deaths by the end of April 2020.

Last week the number of infected was 19,522 which was marginally better than forecast (21,777), and actual number of deaths reported of 1228 was also marginally better than forecast (1447).

One thing to note though is that the infections and deaths number cover different time periods i.e. deaths reported today are as of 5pm yesterday. Whilst infections are as of 9am today, therefore a small adjustment needs to be made to the number of deaths to bring the timings inline with the release of infections data.

Therefore the latest data as of 5th of April has the number infected at 47,806 which is actually less that my forecast of 52,041 by now. But deaths are running well ahead of forecast at 5,244 against 4,217 forecast that resolves to a shockingly high case fatality rate of 11%. Were this trend to persist than the UK would be heading for about 10,000 deaths by the end of April. So both Infections and deaths are tracking my trend forecast, and thus I expect the number of deaths to start moderating over the coming week as it looks like the UK is gong to plateau this week before starting to decline next week.

However, coronavirus reality is not as promising as the data suggests as the official UK data is not counting deaths outside of hospitals as a consequence of Covid-19, and so the number of deaths is probably under reported by at least 25%. That and the hospitals will continue to fill up with new cases of covid19 over the coming weeks, with signs that Britain's healthcare system is already starting to buckle as Police have started cordoning off hospitals such as Watford hospital which is no longer accepting any new patients that is likely to be replicated across the UK this week. So this is definitely NOT the time to get infected and fall ill in a week or 2's time. So everyone should avoid the temptation to break the lockdown to go out and enjoy the sunshine because the NHS won't be in any shape to treat you!.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson, the idiot in No 10 who a month ago was joking about shaking hands with everyone in a hospital with covid-19 patients has himself now been admitted to hospital 10 days after being diagnosed with Covid-19. Day 10-14 tends to be critical for covid-19 sufferers as to whether they have a mild (none hospitalisation case) or whether life saving interventions are necessary. So whilst he is a idiot who acted too late that has likely cost several thousand lives, nevertheless this is the worst time for the nation to be rudderless going into the peak of the Coronavirus storm so hopefully the hospital admission is just precautionary rather than implying something worse as this disease is unforgiving to those who end up on ventilators.

Taiwan

If there is one nation to emulate than that should be Taiwan, a nation of 24 million people with just 355 cases and 5 deaths! The secret to which appears to be effective containment and the wearing face masks. So perhaps everyone should start wearing face masks, maybe distributed by the government, though our governments have shown themselves to be completely incompetent at containment.

The rest of this extensive analysis has first be made available to Patrons who support my work: UK and US Coronavirus Trend, America's "Pearl Harbour" Moment in War with China Mega-trend

  • UK and US Coronavirus Catastrophe Due to Government Negligence
  • America's "Pearl Harbour" Moment - War With China Mega-trend
  • US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory Current State
  • UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory Current State
  • Stock Market Trend Implications
  • AI Stocks Buying Levels
  • WIndfall Taxes
  • Risk of Death

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2020 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in