Stocks Bear Market Rally Last Gasp Before Earnings Season

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022 Jul 11, 2022 - 06:34 PM GMT

Before I get started with my stock market analysis here is my take on the political assassination of Boris Johnson, who was stabbed in the back Thursday by so called colleagues Julius Caesar style by a Tory party that effectively committed electoral suicide. Britain demonstrates the illusion of democracy where we vote one person and his party in who soon gets replaced with a waste of spacer that the electorate did not vote for! A loss of a PM for any reason should automatically trigger a general election.

Stock Market Trend 2022

My stock market big picture remains to expect the Dow to target a trend towards 29,600 by late August / Early September. Note 29,600 is a TARGET for a low and NOT THE LOW, No one can KNOW THE LOW with any degree of confidence, all one can do is arrive at a high probability target and then look to see if the market confirms that expectation or not, so far the market is confirming it is heading for 29,600.

Looking beyond August I expect a volatile bottoming trading range into the end of October as the Dow swings through 29,600 several times ahead of probably a strong rally into at least Christmas. It would be too easy to expect the stock market to put in an easy to ready higher low during October before rallying into Christmas, more probable will be chaotic price action to confuse market participants with false breaks higher and lower during October.

Whilst nearer term my analysis conceded to expect a bear market rally to target 4088 by Mid July before the bear market is likely to resume.

(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)

Stock Market Trend Current State

The rest of this exensive analysis of the state of the stocks bear market and more Stocks Bear Market Rally Last Gasp Before Earnings Season, US House Prices 3 Year Probability Range has first been made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

More recent analysis -

Whilst my recent in-depth analysis is - UK House Prices Three Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025, where I pealed away every layer of the UK housing market I could think of to arrive at a high probability of trend forecast, no following of the consensus herd here! Whilst completion of my extensive analysis of the US housing market is imminent.

UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025

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My Main Analysis Schedule

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Your analyst BUYING the panic selling falling knives.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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