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Stock Market Trend Trajectory into Year End 2023

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023 Nov 22, 2023 - 10:35 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Are you ready to rumble! Lets see of earnings season volatility can deliver some more buying opps in target stocks over the next couple of weeks.

Where the S&P is concerned the expectation for an early October bottom at just below 4200 was freakily ac hived in terms of price and time and as my market brief illustrated going into October.


Stock Market Brief - 29th Sept 2023 - (5am UK Time)

Stock Market correction entering it's end game, S&P swing low is 4237 coming close to the sub 4200 target by Mid October, Thursday saw a technical bounce to 4300, therefore currently standing some 100 points above target. The window for the bottom is from late September to Mid October, so the S&P has upto 2 weeks left to trade to sub 4300 though most likely is just 3 trading days, so early next week could mark the end of this correction either via a lower low (sub 4200) or a higher low (above 4237)..

Too many were sat on the sidelines waiting for a plunge below 4200 towards 4100 so it's not much of a surprise that they didn't get what they wanted. Hence, one should be grateful for those opps that the market delivered in the likes of AMD, TSMC and ASML. We taketh what the market giveth, the market is the master and we are merely trying to ride on it's coat tails and not to fixate on the indices in ones individual stocks buying decision making process, the market gave numerous buying opportunities in a number of stocks, as it will likely do once again during earning seasons, it's just that we don't know exactly which will be the big surprises.

In terms of the overall market the S&P 'should' hold the early October low, if I had to guess how low it could go during earnings then to around 4270 looks a likely price point to target significant support, which fits with my existing base case for an UP October and a bull run into December to ac hive 4510+, that could even see a new bull market high. So I expect limited temporary downside, though again my focus is on the individual stocks rather than the S&P.

Which is consistent with my expectations of how things would play out of over a year ago.

Stock Market Analysis and Trend Forecast Oct 2022 to Dec 2023

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S&P

Targeting 4600 Mid Summer 2023 Top followed by correction to below 4150 into October 2023.

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Your trimmed the FOMO to buy the Dip analyst.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2023 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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