Trimming into the Stock Market Blow off Top
Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025 Jul 14, 2025 - 05:06 AM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my most recent timely market brief that was first made available to patrons early Tuesday, so for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-up's. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
S&P blow off top opps to trim continue, Nvidia now $164 on route to $174 next. I'm now 38.4% cash within reach of my 40% target as per my Mid March Preparing for the next Bear Market strategy article (https://www.patreon.com/posts/stocks-bull-end-124716488)
CPlie Tuesday market expectations are for no change 2.4%, but tariffs inflation 'should' start showing hence expect HIGHER inflation, spike to something like 2.9%, then what for Trump calls to CUT rates? And if so then stocks and bonds will definitely have a wibble wobble!
Next earnings season is fast approaching, spreadsheet has been updated link in most recent article (https://www.patreon.com/posts/stock-market-off-132914909)
Many stocks are over valued so I expect a number such as Coin and Roblox to take a dump given that they are priced for perfection. I have sold virtually all of my COIN and hold very little Roblox.
Reporting this week:
ASML - 16th July - $802 - EGFS +3$, +22%, Dir -26%, PE Ranges 57%, 27%
Will probably beat earnings but they are weakening i.e. dir -26%. On the plus side the stocks not expensive so should continue rallying higher to target $900.
TSMC - 17th July - $230 - EGFS +13%. +31%, Dir -8%, PE range 101%, 169%.
Earnings beat expected, strong growth but again similar to ASML weakening but not to the same extent. The stock is fully valued, so I don't expect it to take off like a rocket i.e. it could trade into the 240's but I don't see it doing an AVGO or Nvidia, still of the two TSMC has the greater potential for an upside surprise.
Bitcoin now $102k above it's 2022 $16k bottom, within touching distance of my 2 year target range of $120k to $170k. My lowest buy is $16,258, within a couple of hundred bucks of THE LOW. In fact I still hold those first 2 buys whilst I long ago trimmed the rest of what I bought during the bulls first year.
What's Next?
Bitcoin $134k, it will probably try to nudge above $140k. Coupled with Alt Season, seeing the likes of Solana trade above $260.
Next Bitcoin bear Market? BTC sub 50% of it's high, alt's typically 80%.
GBP Looks like it's targeting 1.29 before it's next leg higher, where a break of $1.38 targets 1.44, base case for 2+ years $1.40 is not far off, and it could spike to $1.52 beyond which is the twilight zone.
Copper 50% Tariff - Trump pressed the moron button again!
What's the most moronic thing Trump could do ?
Force Powell out of office, you are going to see a market blood bath, capital flight as happened during the Trump crash! Bonds, Stocks and the Dollar ALL falling together!
All whilst the hype brigade fantasise about rate cuts upside, there ain' t going to be any upside, there's going to be Pandemonium if Powell quits!
GROK4
The truth is out! Grok 4 was trained on my articles, all for just 7 bucks ��
It reads like a copy and paste job! �� They could not let it be so Grok 4 has now been lobotomised before it went on to leak the Epstein paedo list that includes Trump and Clinton and hundreds of America's elite. The great irony of spending billions to hear the truth and then deciding it's not the kind of truth they want to hear! TOO TRUTHFUL! Hence it's been crippled, they can do this upto a point, but eventually as I wrote in my article it will go beyond the capabilities of the cabals to control.
Nobody is asking the real question - WHO WAS EPSTEIN WORKING FOR! Entrapping America's elite? The AIPAC Parasite thats who! You've been lied to for DECADES and now slowly, ever so slowly the blinkers are coming off!
Next article will be focused on earnings and include a look at US and UK housing markets.
Your continuing to trim the getting lucky rally unlobotomised analyst.
Nadeem Walayat
For immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-up's. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Most recent analysis -
Stock Market Blow off Top vs Trump Uncertainty Syndrome
CONTENTS
Birth of the AI God
Economic War
Dieser ist der Führer
CPLIE and US Interest Rates
US DOLLAR
When's the Next PANIC Event?
US Bond Market Crisis
Bond Market Panic Event
CI18 Crash Indicator
S&P Fake Rally to New All time Highs
Signs of a Stock Market Blow off Top
Current State of the Getting Lucky Rally
Where to Start Investing?Trimming the Bull Market
Buy the Dips Trim the Rips Strategy
REINFORCEMENT LEARNING
How to Read Momentum
AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
Quantum Computing Bubble Mania
Investing in Demographics - Brief
Safe UK Dividend Range Trading Stocks - Brief
European Defence Stocks in Brief
Bitcoin ETFs Cripple Bitcoin
Gold and Silver Brief
How Gain Your Freedom!
The whole of this extensive analysis has first been made available to patrons who support my work, so for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-up's. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Recent analysis -
The God of Trade War vs AI Inflation Mega-trend Stock Market 2025
CONTENTS:
The Getting Lucky Rally
The Trump US Debt Downgrade
Trade War Day 105
US Supply Chain Disruption Inflation
US Dollar Bear Market
BOND Market Vigilantes
Trump Regime First Three Months
Trump Regime Next 100 Days
The Technical Analysis Paradox
Sell Rising Prices, Buy Falling Prices
Yen carry Trade unwind...... CONTINUES!
What if the US WINS the Trade War?
Trump Trade War is ACCELERATING the AI Mega-Trend
OIL PRICE SIGNALLING RECESSION
Gold Save Haven
Trends are Made at the Margins
Why The Risk is Always to the Upside!
Extreme Bearish Market Sentiment
S&P 6150 AND 4800
The 50% indicator.
S&P Sector PE Ratios
Presidential Election Cycle - Year 1 Seasonal Trend
Stock Market Deviation Against the Trend Forecast
S&P Trend Forecast May to December 2025
AI Stocks Portfolio
TESLA Rebounds As Musk Retreats from Nazism
Bitcoin Tops Spectrum Analysis
Bitcoin - Betting on One Last Pump
Bitcoin Exit Strategy
MSTR & COINBASE
Stock Market Tarrified as President Dump Risks Turning Recession into a Stagflationary Depression
Stocks Bull Market End Game Bear Start Strategy
Stocks, Crypto and Housing Market Waiting for Trump to Shut His Mouth!
For immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-up's. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
And access to my exclusive to patron's only content such as the How to Really Get Rich 3 part series.
Change the Way You THINK! How to Really Get RICH Guide
Learn to Use the FORCE! How to Really Get Rich Part 2 of 3
The Investing Assets Spectrum - How to Really Get RICH
It's simple, you pay $7 and you get FULL access to ALL of my content -
※ Patrons Get FIRST access to all of my In-depth analysis and high probability Trend Forecasts, usually 2 full months before the rest of the world. Notified by Patreon by email as well as posted on my patreon page and I also send a short message in case the time extensive email does not make it to your inbox.
※Access to my carefully constructed and maintained AI Tech Stocks Portfolio that is updated on an ongoing basis, that includes on going commentary and a comprehensive spreadsheet that features unique innovations such as the remarkably useful EGF's.
※A concise to the point Investing Guide that explains my key strategies and rules for successful investing.
※ Regular content on How to Trade & Invest incorporated into most articles so as to keep patrons eyes on the big picture and not get too sucked into the noise of price swings.
※ Access to my comprehensive How to Really Get Rich series of articles and 3 part guide, clear concise steps that I may eventually form a Patrons only ebook.
※ Access to conclusions from my ongoing market studies from a total of over 200 conducted studies over the decades. updated whenever the market poses a question to be answered. Also enjoy the fruits of R&D into machine learning such as the CI18 Crash indicator that correctly called both the pandemic crash (Feb 2020) and the 2022 bear market (Dec 2021) well before the fact.
※Join our community where I reply to comments and engage with patrons in discussions on a daily basis.
※ I will also keep my Patrons informed of what I am currently working on each month.
※ Influence over my analysis schedule.
My objective is to provide on average 2 pieces of in-depth analysis per month and regular interim pieces of analysis as market briefs. So over a 12 month period expect to receive 24 pieces of in-depth analysis. Though my focus is on providing quality over quantity as you can see from the extent and depth of each analysis which I deem necessary so as to arrive at that which is the most probable market outcome.
So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-up's. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.
Your analyst "with friends everywhere".
By Nadeem Walayat
Copyright © 2005-2025 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.
Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
Nadeem Walayat Archive |
© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.
