Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 18th May 20
Why the Largest Cyberattack in History Will Happen Within Six Months - 18th May 20
New AMD Ryzen 4900x and 4950x Zen3 4th Gen Processors Clock Speed and Cores Specs - 18th May 20
Learn How to Play the Violin, Kids Activities and Learning During Lockdown - 18th May 20
The Great Economy Reopening Gamble - 17th May 20
Powell Sends a Message With Love for Gold - 17th May 20
An Economic Renaissance Emerges – Stock Market Look Out Below - 17th May 20
Learn more about the UK Casino Self-exclusion - 17th May 20
Will Stocks Lead the Way Lower for Gold Miners? - 15th May 20
Are Small-Cap Stocks (Russell 2k) Headed For A Double Dip? - 15th May 20
Coronavirus Will Wipe Out These Three Industries for Good - 15th May 20
Gold and Silver: As We Go from Deflation to Hyperinflation - 15th May 20
Silver's Massive Undervaluation Relative to Gold Makes It Irresistible - 14th May 20
Bitcoin Halving Passes with no Fanfare, but Smart Money is Accumulating - 14th May 20
Will Job Market from Hell Support Gold? - 14th May 20
The Tragedy Of Missed Covid-19 Opportunities - 14th May 20
Worst Jobs Report In US Economic History - And The Stock Market Continues To Rally - 14th May 20
NASDAQ Sets Up A Massive Head and Shoulders Pattern - 14th May 20
Perceiving Coronavirus as a Disruptive Technology - 13th May 20
Why Financial Trouble Brews on the "Home" Front - 13th May 20
Stock Market ‘Sentiment Event’ Rally Grinds On - 13th May 20
The Fed Now Owns All Markets - 13th May 20
Fruit Trees Gardening to Beat Coronavirus Blues - , Apple, Cherry, Kiwi, Pears, Plums, Grapes, Bananas May 2020 - 13th May 20
Gold Investors Shouldn’t Be Losing Focus - 12th May 20
S&P 500 Bulls Again At Resistance – Now What - 12th May 20
US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - 12th May 20
Gold in the year of the Coronavirus Pandemic - 12th May 20
Hi Ho Silver : Away! - 11th May 20
The Great Stock Market Disconnect - 11th May 20
The Big Move In Silver May Be Right Now - 11th May 20
Finding Winners in the Wreckage of the Coronavirus Economic Downturn - 11th May 20
Brave New Corona World – A heated Debate between Steven Pinker and Aldous Huxley - 11th May 20
Coronavirus Catastrophe Stock Market Implications - 10th May 20
US Stock Prices are Ignoring the Economic Meltdown, Wait for it… - 10th May 20
Forecasting Crude Oil: This Method Has Been the Undefeated Champion Since 1998 - 10th May 20
Coronapocalypse and Gold - How High Is Too High for the Yellow Metal? - 10th May 20
The Illusion of Owning Gold - 10th May 20 - Nick_Barisheff
The Financial Crisis Will Continue To Lurk Even If the Lockdown Gets Eased - 10th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Stock Market Mega-trend Super-cycle Wave IV

Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory Jan 10, 2009 - 11:55 AM GMT

By: Joseph_Russo

Stock-Markets Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWorking out the largest of Big-Picture Visions - The equity price-chart below is a compilation of data points starting with the British All shares Index (1693-1853), the Clement Burgess Index (1854-1895), and then spliced using ratio multipliers with the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1896 to present. The 315-year result is the longest contiguous record of equity prices in the history of Humankind.


Where are we?

Placing a cogent wave count to this data from a long-term grand cyclical Elliott Wave perspective is no easy task. Even the most astute of Elliott Wave analysts would pause at the challenge in assigning the wave labels inherent at each of the nine degrees of trend defined by Mr. Elliott. The first 164-years of price-data is enmeshed with a series of sharp spikes, massive crashes, along with an endless array of corrective overlapping bull and bear market waves in between. Such patterns present daunting challenge to reconcile. It is not until the print low in 1932 that we are able to identify a clear visual five-wave upward impulse.

At first glance, one would be inclined to label the 1693-1857 consolidation as some type of gargantuan fourth wave event. This would suggest that the present day crest might be marking our “end of days”. Though this is plausible, we have arrived at an alternate, more optimistic longer-term opinion. Despite our long-view optimism, there is no feasible way for long-term “buy & hold” investors to avoid the carnage and consequence of Super-Cycle Wave IV.

View from the far corners of the Universe

From the far corners of the Universe, this is how one with eternal life might view the last 315-years of humankind's progress. It is from this perspective that we postulate the vertical parabolic rise from 1857 as an unequivocal third wave of significant import.

Grand-Super-Cycle wave II (1720-1857) 137-years

Super-Cycle wave III (1932-2007) 75-years

(Extended) Cycle-Wave V (1974-2007) 34-years

When the above chart first appeared on our screen, the first thing we thought was –

“HOLY COW that is Log Scale!”

Let us put this Big-Picture exercise in some context.

Consider for a moment that a fifth-wave Elliott terminal at Grand Super Cycle Degree will be an event of magnitude relative to the stability or very existence of humankind. A 40- foot rise in the Sea level, an Asteroid Impact, a Nuclear Accident, a worldwide Pandemic, or Gamma Rays from a nearby star going Super Nova come to mind as events associated with terminal of a Grand Fifth. Yes, we are talking about the extinction of Humankind or worse. In this context, we optimistically hope that we have at least another thousand years to get things right before such reckoning may befall us. The planet has been around for a long time, and so has Humankind. As death and taxes are certain, so too is it certain that the planet will someday explode at the hand of a dying star some 93-million miles away.

Returning to optimism, look at that 164-year never-ending, (plausibly perceived) potential Grand-Four Triangle discussed (at first glance) relative to the chart above. With this unique compressed view of the “really big picture”, that span of 164-years can easily appear as first and second waves, especially considering the utter absurdity of the parabolic rocket launch off the 1857-59 low. Viewed at such scale, if we are on the doorstep of our last days, such an imminent Grand Fifth ending would seem rather short lived given all that is behind us. Short of a MAJOR world-changing event, placed in this context, one can only assume that the insane parabolic advance we are witnessing is that of an extended Third Wave of Grand-Super-Cycle-Degree. Those gurus' once clamoring for a 30-thousand Dow may not be so crazy after all however; those 100,000 Dow folks may have to wait a thousand years for validation.

 

The 1932 Crash Low registers Super-Cycle II

Elliott himself remained strident that the '29 print high was an expanded “B” wave of sorts. That he considered it that of Cycle Dimension as we now do, is not likely. Of particular interest in reconciling the above two sets of Cycle-Degree impulses from 1857-1966, are the extraordinary Fibonacci turn sequences taking place between most all of our yearly terminals.

For Example:

From the 1857 low, a primary degree bull crested some (34-1) 33-years later in 1890 marking a Cycle-Degree III wave peak. Our positioning of the 1903 Cycle Degree IV takes place 13-years later following the 1890 III-wave crest.

Enter, the Federal Reserve

Just three years following the establishment of the US Federal Reserve system, our proprietary 1916 Super-Cycle I tops amid a 13-year long Cycle-Degree V wave advance, which disappointingly does not contain a visual impulse. Five years of bear market decline then marks our Cycle Degree “A” wave in 1921, followed by an 8-year relentless bubble, which fatally burst at the phony “B” wave crest of Cycle Dimension in 1929.

Thereafter, three years of Fibonacci carnage wreaked havoc, bringing on the Great Depression as it marks our Super-Cycle II terminal. Five years of bull market respite then crested the widely accepted Cycle Degree wave-I peak in 1937. Also widely accepted, the Cycle Wave II low of 1942 marked another five-year Fibonacci bear market prior to launching a most impressive bull market run before hitting the 1000-level brick wall at its Cycle III-wave ceiling in 1966. The answering bear market of Cycle Wave IV-wave down would not end for another eight years at the print low of 1974. After 8 years of struggle, the Dow blasted off from a secondary higher base in 1982 and barely looked back.

Some (34-1) 33-Fibonacci years post the 1974 low, 2007 has clearly marked high terminal to Super-Cycle III. Given such a rich and reliable history of reference imparted by Mr. Elliott and Fibonacci, what may Super-Cycle wave-IV have in store? 

We've only just begun

Should our wave counts prove accurate we may eventually refer to the correction we have seen thus far, as the calm-before- the- storm. Should Elliott's tendency for alternation hold true to form, Super Cycle wave-IV possesses the capacity to implode the Dow back toward its former brick wall at the 1000 level, and do so in fairly short order.

In the year 2525 – if “man” is still alive

Our chart below, prepared for subscribers back in June of 2007 (and still holding true to forecast), depicts a kinder gentler SC-IV-wave consolidation lasting well beyond 2525.

Choose your poison –All at once, or prolonged torture

Though there is no way to tell with certainty the precise duration, depth, and shape of SC-IV, we did know well in advance that such a decline would likely be arriving in the 2007-2008 time frame. What we can prepare for is one of the two general outcomes mentioned above. One is a hard, fast, painful crash of historic proportion, and the second is a long, drawn-out agonizing torture comprised of a series of smaller cyclical bull and bear markets. Either way involves a significant amount of pain for long-term buy & hold investment strategies.

Counting the vast array of explosive subdivisions amid Super-Cycle IV

To track and trade the currently unfolding subdivisions of SC-IV effectively, one may subscribe to our premium technical publication. The express focus of Elliott Wave Technology's Near Term Outlook is to help active traders anticipate price direction and amplitude of broad market indices over the short, intermediate, and long-term.

Over the past three years, we have perfected the art of dispatching tactical trade set-ups and market forecasting to a consistent, impartial, and immensely profitable endeavor for those who take the time to embrace it. We deliver this unique blend of proprietary charting protocol daily, with the express intent to convey timely and profitable information. Our daily reports impart strategy-specific guidance , which strives to forecast, monitor, and calibrate market impact relative to a multitude of trading signals that are in direct alignment with eight distinct strategies set forth in the members NTO essentials file.

Regardless of one's level of trading experience, users must allow sufficient time to become acquainted with the authors charting protocol, strategies, and tactical narratives prior to entering positions or developing discretionary trading strategies of their own. Our forthcoming E-letters should assist greatly in this endeavor.

Essential E-Letters on tap for 2009:

How to Buy Critical Bottoms, Sell Major Tops, and Trade the Swings in between

To more effectively convey dynamic trading conditions relevant to our technical publications; we are soon planning to launch complimentary E-letter briefings for our clients. E-letter dispatches will briefly summarize tactical trading postures across various time horizons and trading strategies. They will simplify big-picture core positions, as well as recap the logic and challenges surrounding short and medium term trading efforts. Best of all, we intend to provide these confidence building letters FREE to all who wish to receive them. The theme of our maiden E-letter will reveal how to sell at major tops, buy at critical bottoms, and how to trade all of the intermittent swings. Those interested may email us to get an early seat on our mailing list.

Trade Better / Invest Smarter...

By Joseph Russo
Chief Editor and Technical Analyst
Elliott Wave Technology
Email Author

Copyright © 2009 Elliott Wave Technology. All Rights Reserved.
Joseph Russo, presently the Publisher and Chief Market analyst for Elliott Wave Technology, has been studying Elliott Wave Theory, and the Technical Analysis of Financial Markets since 1991 and currently maintains active member status in the "Market Technicians Association." Joe continues to expand his body of knowledge through the MTA's accredited CMT program.

Joseph Russo Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules