Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Buying Levels Q2 2020 - 1st Jun 20
M2 Velocity Collapses – Could A Bottom In Capital Velocity Be Setting Up? - 1st Jun 20
The Inflation–Deflation Conundrum - 1st Jun 20
AMD 3900XT, 3800XT, 3600XT Refresh Means Zen 3 4000 AMD CPU's Delayed for 5nm Until 2021? - 1st Jun 20
Why Multi-Asset Brokers Like TRADE.com are the Future of Trading - 1st Jun 20
Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? - 30th May
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? - 29th May 20
Strong Signs In The Mobile Gaming Market - 29th May 20
Last Clap for NHS and Carers, Sheffield UK - 29th May 20
The AI Mega-trend Stocks Investing - When to Sell? - 28th May 20
Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? - 28th May 20
Stocks: What to Make of the Day-Trading Frenzy - 28th May 20
Why You’ll Never Get Another Stimulus Check - 28th May 20
Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis - 28th May 20
Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Economic Decline And New World Order - 28th May 20
Europe’s Coronavirus Pandemic Dilemma - 28th May 20
I Can't Pay My Payday Loans What Will Happen - 28th May 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued - 27th May 20
Why Stocks Bear Market Rallies Are So Tricky - 27th May 20
Precious Metals Hit Resistance - 27th May 20
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life - 27th May 20
Where the Markets are heading after COVID-19? - 27th May 20
Silver Springboards Higher – What’s Next? - 26th May 20
Stock Market Key Resistance Breakout Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road - 26th May 20
5 Ways To Amp Up Your CFD Trading Today - 26th May 20
The Anatomy of a Gold Stock Bull Market - 26th May 20
Stock Market Critical Price Level Could Soon Prompt A Big Move - 25th May 20
Will Powell Decouple Gold from the Stock Market? - 25th May 20
How Muslims Celebrated EID in Lockdown Britain 2020 - UK - 25th May 20
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Rising Oil Price Trend Supports Agri-food Bull Market During 2009

Commodities / Agricultural Commodities Jan 28, 2009 - 03:07 AM GMT

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Commodities Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA perhaps amazing characteristic of trends is that they do not continue indefinitely. One can not help also noticing the inability of journalists to correctly describe trends as they are developing. While they, and we suspect their editors, spend considerable time on grammar, they still seem to have problems with the proper tense for verbs. The difference between falling and has fallen may seem trivial to journalists, but to the analysts they are considerably different.


Is the price of oil falling, or has it fallen? Actually, neither is the case. It is rising. In this week's first graph is plotted the spot price for U.S. oil. Yes, the price of oil has fallen from the unsustainable level reached last year, But, it definitely is not falling at the present time. In fact, U.S. spot oil is up about 40% from the low. And as we always remind, oil is part of the energy component of the asset class known as commodities.

Why is the price of oil rising not falling? A number of possible reasons exist for this change of trend. First, U.S. oil prices became artificially depressed due to storage problems at Cushing, Oklahoma. Inadequate capacity there caused inordinate short-term pricing pressure. Second, oil demand is, over time, going to rise. Popular forecasts seem to have a heavy dose of current trend extrapolation. Third, the massive monetization of debt by the Federal Reserve is creating a surplus of dollars in the world. Those excess dollars are pushing up the price of dollar denominated commodities. Oil and Gold prices are both reflecting that monetary policy in a state of out of control.

A fourth, and perhaps most important, reason for the price of oil moving higher is that a sufficient portion of the hedge fund industry has been liquidated, ending their excessive influence on price. The price of oil, and many other commodities, should not have risen as high as they did. Those highs were artificial, driven by the hedge fund mania. Now, with that selling out of the way, oil, and other commodities, can begin to more correctly reflect underlying trends. If that is the case, then oil and other commodities can be expected to sell for significantly higher prices in the future.

The second graph this week, below, is of the prices of fifteen major Agri-Food commodities relative to their lows of the past year. On average, they are up 20% from their lows. Only two, rice and butter, are at their lows. Two are up about 40% while three are up 30%. Again, Agri-Food commodity prices are not falling. They have fallen, and are now rising. Reality is that the world continues to move over time into an era of global Agri-Food shortages. And since Agri-Food cannot be produced in a factory, neither governments nor charismatic leaders can change that situation.

The growth in the underlying demand for Agri-Food varies little with short-term economic cycles. Rather, longer term trends will dominate the future prices for Agri-Foods. China made an important discovery in the past two decades. Hunger is not a food problem. Hunger is an incomes problem. Raise the income of the population, and hunger will disappear. With those incomes, the people will simply buy the food. For once, and likely the only time, government policy has been effective in altering the level of hunger. Several hundred million people have been raised out of poverty in China in the past twenty years. The greatest shift of that kind in all of history, and they will all be eating.

Each year for the foreseeable future about 15 million people will move into the middle class in China. That will happen regardless of what happens to Chinese exports to the U.S. in the coming week. Of course, the actual number might be less in one year and more in other. Over time the compounding effect of their demand for Agri-Food will place a considerable strain on the global Agri-Food balance. At times the question dealt with how China would feed itself.

With the changing income demographics in the next decade, the question will change. How will the rest of the world afford to eat? Is your portfolio ready to ride this Agri-Food Super Cycle?

By Ned W Schmidt CFA, CEBS

AGRI-FOOD THOUGHTS is from Ned W. Schmidt,CFA,CEBS, publisher of The Agri-Food Value View , a monthly exploration of the Agri-Food grand cycle being created by China, India, and Eco-energy. To receive the most recent issue of this publication, use this link: http://home.att.net/~nwschmidt/Order_AgriValueRECENT.html

Copyright © 2009 Ned W. Schmidt - All Rights Reserved

Ned W Schmidt Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Laurent Chatenay
28 Jan 09, 18:01
Agri-foods

How can you profit from rising agri-foods if you cannot buy futures?


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules