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Pessimism Ahead of Friday's NonFarm Payrolls Jobs Report

Economics / US Economy Feb 04, 2009 - 04:40 PM GMT

By: Michael_Pento

Economics Any Hope for Job Growth? - This Friday's release on nonfarm payrolls will shine a burning light on our nation's need to promote growth and create new jobs. After losing 2.7 million jobs in 2008, projections are to start off 2009 with a 1/2 million reduction in payrolls. The unemployment rate which closed the year at 7.2% is expected to climb to 7.4% in this latest report.


The reason for the continued pessimism in employment trends can be derived in the recent job cut announcements from U.S. major employers. For example, in January alone these companies announced work force reductions in the following percentages; Eastman Kodak 18%, Caterpillar 18%, WellPoint 36%, Rohm & Haas 59% and Circuit City 100%. According to the Wall St. Journal, a small sampling of just 52 listed firms announced a total of 241,300 job cuts thus far in 2009.

The Obama administration's response to creating jobs is a massive government debt and spending regimen that will, in his aspirations, create 4.1 million jobs—a number which has itself grown from just 2.5 million this past fall. His plan ignores both economics and history.

What helped turn the great recession into the Great Depression was the Revenue act of 1932. The act raised rates on income, estate and corporate taxes. The result was a maximum unemployment rate of 20% and a net change of GDP of -18.2% between May of 1937 through June 1938—nine years after the crash of 1929. There were other exacerbating forces such as a move toward protectionism, but clearly all of Roosevelt's efforts to end the Depression did not bring about an end to unemployment or a return to trend G.D.P. growth even towards the beginning of WWll.

That's because growth does not come from money printing or government deficit spending. It comes from encouraging the private sector to create new technologies and innovations that expand the amount of goods and services available for consumption. That can only be achieved by incentivizing the private sector to take risks (tax cuts). It also requires low interest rates that themselves can only truly be provided through sound monetary and fiscal policies.

Investors understand the true derivation of growth and they understand that some things take time and cannot be forced or manipulated to occur by a central planning authority. They understand that the private sector is best at creating jobs that are viable and accretive to economic growth. Perhaps that is the reason why investors greeted the New Year with the worst January performance on the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial average ever.

Consumers can always hope for a favorable report this Friday, but the evidence in so far does not offer much hope and the administration's reaction to the economic malaise promises more pain ahead in the future.

Be sure to listen in on my Mid-Week Reality Check

Michael Pento
Senior Market Strategist
Delta Global Advisors
800-485-1220
mpento@deltaga.com
www.deltaga.com

With more than 16 years of industry experience, Michael Pento acts as senior market strategist for Delta Global Advisors and is a contributing writer for GreenFaucet.com . He is a well-established specialist in the Austrian School of economic theory and a regular guest on CNBC and other national media outlets. Mr. Pento has worked on the floor of the N.Y.S.E. as well as serving as vice president of investments for GunnAllen Financial immediately prior to joining Delta Global.

© 2009 Copyright Michael Pento - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Pento Archive

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