Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Best Cash ISA Savings Account for Soaring UK Inflation - February 2018 - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold Price Forecast 2018 - February Update - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Bitcoin Crypto Currencies Crash 2018, Are We Near the Bottom? - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Trump Bubble Bursts, Stock Market Panic Dow 1175 Point Crash Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Corrects, Bitcoin Markets Crash, Whilst Stocks Plunge - Nadeem_Walayat
6.US Treasury Bonds: Fuse to Light the Bonfire - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Dow Falls 666 Points As Cryptocurrencies Crash And Krugman Emerges From His Van - Jeff_Berwick
8.Stock Market Roller Coaster Crash Ride Down to Dow Forecast 23,000 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Trading the Shadows - Oil, Dollar, Stocks, Gold Trend Analysis - B.R. Hollister
10.Stock Market Analysis: Baying for Blood - Abalgorithm
Last 7 days
Stock Market SPX Probable Pop-n-drop - 22nd Feb 18
Stocks Fail to Hold Gains, But Still No Correction - 22nd Feb 18
Why We Should Buy Essay - 22nd Feb 18
The Latest US Debt Blow - 22nd Feb 18
6 Tips For Seamless Business Foreign Exchange - 22nd Feb 18
How to Anticipate Stock Market Trend Changes - 21st Feb 18
Gold Miners’ Rally? What Rally? Watch Out for More Fake Moves! - 21st Feb 18
5 Big Drivers of Higher Inflation Rates Ahead - 21st Feb 18
Goofy Indictments Divert Attention from Criminal Abuses at the FBI and DOJ - 21st Feb 18
Bitcoin or British Pound ‘Pretty Much Failed’ As Currency? - 21st Feb 18
Stock Market Waiting for the Fed - 21st Feb 18
National Identity Demands Restrictive Immigration - 21st Feb 18
Best Opportunities for Freelance Technical Writing Jobs - 21st Feb 18
4% US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Will Be a Floor Not a Ceiling - 20th Feb 18
Governments Are LYING about Their Gold Activities while Mining Companies Cower - 20th Feb 18
No Silver Lining Here - 20th Feb 18
Semi Conductor Stocks SEMI Bearish? - 20th Feb 18
The Prisoner Promised Land - 20th Feb 18
Best Car Dash Cam Review: Z-Edge S3 Dual Dash Cam - UNBOXING (1) - 20th Feb 18
How Inflation Reduces The Real Value Of Social Security Net Of Medicare Premiums - 19th Feb 18
Could Stellar Lumens be a Challenger to Bitcoin for International Payments? - 19th Feb 18
US-China Trade War Escalates As Further Measures Are Taken - 19th Feb 18
How To Trade Gold Stocks with Momentum - 19th Feb 18
Is a New Gold Bull Market on the Horizon? - 19th Feb 18
Stock Market Decision Point! - 19th Feb 18
An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 1 - 18th Feb 18
Get on Top Of Debt Before It Gets on Top of You - 18th Feb 18
Will the Stock Market Make a Double Bottom? - 18th Feb 18
5 Reasons Why Commodities Are the Investment Place to be in 2018 - 18th Feb 18
1 Week Later, Stock, Bond Market Risk Remains ‘On’ as 2 of 3 Amigos Ride On - 17th Feb 18
Crude Oil Prices: A Case of Dueling Narratives? - 17th Feb 18
Free 1000 Youtube Subscribers Services - YTpals, Subpals, SubmeNow Test - 17th Feb 18
How to Trade as We Near March Stock Market Top - 16th Feb 18
Bitcoin as Poison - 16th Feb 18
GDX Gold ETF Weathers Stock Market Selloff - 16th Feb 18
Casino Statistics and Demographics - 16th Feb 18
IS Today Thee Stock Market Turn Day? - 16th Feb 18
Huge SMIGGLE Shopping HAUL, Pencil Cases, Drinks Bottles, Back Packs, Toys.... - 16th Feb 18
Tesla Cash Keeps Burning at $320 a Share - 15th Feb 18
Big Conflict Ahead in the Financial Markets - 15th Feb 18
Stocks Extend Rally Off Friday's Low, But Short-Term Exhaustion Near - 15th Feb 18
Stock Market Out on a Limb... - 15th Feb 18
Things Only a True Friend Would Say About Gold - 14th Feb 18
Global Debt Crisis II Cometh - 14th Feb 18
Understanding Crude Oil Behavior - 14th Feb 18
Stock Market is Getting Scary... - 14th Feb 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Urgent Stock Market Message

Financial Markets Analysis: Stocks Bear Market and Government Intervention

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market Feb 14, 2009 - 06:43 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe weeks stock market trend was in one word WEAK, the preceding weeks strong close FAILED to have any follow through, the stock market FAILED to break above 8,400 let alone make it to resistance at 8,600, stocks turned lower to target the lower end of the trading range of between 8,400 and 7,800, including a BEARISH break below support, which triggered the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) into action to support the stock market and bring the selling to a halt, for the time being at least.


Where Next ?

As I mentioned last week , we are in a stocks bear market that is targeting fresh lows with a target as of 20th January of 6,600 on the DJIA, and 3,400 on the FTSE 100.

The battle being waged is that of debt deleveraging and economic contraction against ever more desperate government interventions that are increasingly buying up anything and everything in an attempt to plug holes in the bursting deflationary dam. Therefore short-term stock trends are subject to government intervention warping chart price action i.e. generating false triggers that can catch traders out.

The seasonal trend is for a rally into late April / early May, there was limited evidence for this the week before, however the weeks trend hit a brick wall as the bear market has attempted to reassert itself. Therefore my analysis suggests that next week will continue to see this battle being played out between the bear trend against seasonal tendencies coupled with government intervention, eventually the governments will lose as the bear trend reasserts itself as there is plenty of time for the bear trend to unfold, if anything the weeks weakness suggests that the lower target of 6,000 is now becoming more probable.

In conclusion the stocks bear market continues to target DJIA between 6,600 and 6,000 by July 2009. The short-term trend is exhibiting much volatility. Its a tough call but I would not be surprised if stocks closed higher next week inline with seasonal pressures, in which regard one would look to oversold banking stocks / financials to lead the market higher. II am expecting stocks to be contained within the trading range of between 8,400 and 7,700 for another week, with trend targeting immediate resistance at 8,300. A break below 7,700 would negate this short-term corrective scenario.

Financial Armageddon..... Postponed?

2 minutes and 20 seconds into this C-Span video clip, Rep. Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania explains how the Federal Reserve told Congress members about a "tremendous draw-down of money market accounts in the United States, to the tune of $550 billion dollars." According to Kanjorski, this electronic transfer occurred over the period of an hour and threatened a further $5 trillion to be drawn out triggering a total collapse of the Worlds Financial System, which then prompted Hank Paulson's emergency $700 billion TARP bailout action.

Following Septembers close call with Financial Armageddon the governments of the world have been busy recapitalising bankrupt banks with tax payers monies, however the $500 trillion derivatives monster continues to deleverage and thereby implying that the risks of financial armageddon have only marginally improved on September 2008. There still exists the high potential risk of financial and economic collapse that would be accompanied by eye-wateringly extreme currency market volatility and probable seizure.

For more on the impact of deflation, download the world's foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary scenario, Robert Prechter's FREE 60-page Deflation Survival eBook or browse various deflation topics like those below :

Your stock index futures trading analyst.

Nadeem Walayat

Editor, The Market Oracle
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of the Week

1. Economic Depression 2009?

By: Mick_Phoenix

Whilst the great inflation/deflation debate continues (its deflation that wins, the inflationistas are being misled by the Fed's actions with its bail out facilities) we need to look at some startling new facts and projections that have appeared in the public arena.

Read Article

2. Catastrophic Fall in 2009 Global Food Production

By: Eric_deCarbonnel

After reading about the droughts in two major agricultural countries, China and Argentina, I decided to research the extent other food producing nations were also experiencing droughts. This project ended up taking a lot longer than I thought. 2009 looks to be a humanitarian disaster around much of the world

Read Article

3. Stock Market to Fall AT LEAST Another 40%!

By: Martin Weiss

With the U.S. economy now reeling from the fastest job collapse since the Great Depression …

With the Treasury Secretary ready to introduce yet another bank bailout plan this week …

Read Article

4. Baby Boomers- Your Generation's Crisis Has Arrived

By: James_Quinn

"There is a mysterious cycle in human events. To some generations, much is given. Of other generations, much is expected. This Generation has a rendezvous with destiny." Franklin Roosevelt – 1936

Read Article

5. Ten Things You Should and Should Not Do During Deflation

By: EWI

Whilst today's headlines have been grabbed by Barack Obama's U.S. Economic Stimulus package of $800 billion, which is part of a global collective total of approximate $2 trillion of stimulus spending that has been committed for during the next 1 to 2 years. However the fact of the matter is that this does not even come close to countering the REAL Deflationary impact of the $30 trillion across the board loss of value of assets from real estate, to stocks to commodities.

Read Article

Download your 60-page Deflation Survival Guide now

6. Stock Market Crash 2009: Few More Days of Strength Before the Bear Strikes

By: Eric_Chevrette

In this paper we shall try to sort out the latest market action with the highest possible accuracy : as a matter of fact, though the overall bearish picture does remain untouched for global stocks (see chart #4 ),

Read Article

7. Financial Markets Analysis: Stocks Bounce, Where Next?

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock Markets continued their strong rally on Friday from early week lows that had threatened to break below the recent tight trading range and target fresh bear market lows.

Read Article

8. The Great Depression Facts: Double Dip Economic Slump

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Contrary to what you might believe, the Great Depression of the 1930s was not a decade-long era of economic decline. Rather, the Great Depression was made up of two distinct economic slumps - August 1929 through March 1933 and May 1937 through June 1938.

Read Article

9. Economic Stimulus Spending Breakdown Shows Repeating the Mistakes of Japan

By: Mike_Shedlock

The Washington Post is Taking Apart the $819 billion Stimulus Package with a couple of graphs that show how and when the stimulus money will be spent. Here is one of the graphs.

Read Article

10. Gold, Silver, Oil and Broad Stock Market Outlook

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Last week was exciting as the broad market dipped back down to test Hogan's Bottom again. The market found support and posted a nice two day rally on increased volume as buyers stepped back into the market.

Read Article

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 250 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Attention Editors and Publishers! - You have permission to republish THIS article. Republished articles must include attribution to the author and links back to the http://www.marketoracle.co.uk . Please send an email to republish@marketoracle.co.uk, to include a link to the published article.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules