Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Critical Price Level Could Soon Prompt A Big Move - 25th May 20
Will Powell Decouple Gold from the Stock Market? - 25th May 20
How Muslims Celebrated EID in Lockdown Britain 2020 - UK - 25th May 20
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 18th May 20
Why the Largest Cyberattack in History Will Happen Within Six Months - 18th May 20
New AMD Ryzen 4900x and 4950x Zen3 4th Gen Processors Clock Speed and Cores Specs - 18th May 20
Learn How to Play the Violin, Kids Activities and Learning During Lockdown - 18th May 20
The Great Economy Reopening Gamble - 17th May 20
Powell Sends a Message With Love for Gold - 17th May 20
An Economic Renaissance Emerges – Stock Market Look Out Below - 17th May 20
Learn more about the UK Casino Self-exclusion - 17th May 20
Will Stocks Lead the Way Lower for Gold Miners? - 15th May 20
Are Small-Cap Stocks (Russell 2k) Headed For A Double Dip? - 15th May 20
Coronavirus Will Wipe Out These Three Industries for Good - 15th May 20
Gold and Silver: As We Go from Deflation to Hyperinflation - 15th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Stock Market Investing Buy and Hold vs. The Right Time to Buy

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market Mar 19, 2009 - 12:50 PM GMT

By: Hans_Wagner

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMany investors were taught that buy and hold is the best investing strategy. None other than Professor Jeremy Siegel author of Stocks for the Long Run, 4th Edition: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns And Long Term Investment Strategies is a strong proponent of the buy and hold approach support this method. In a recent editorial in the Wall Street Journal, stating that stocks were cheap now and investors should buy. With the DJIA at lows not seen since 1997, it has been very tough for the buy and hold crowd. Could you have done better by timing your entries and exits?


Buy and Hold

Crestmont Research provides an excellent tool to measure the stock market returns over any time period that began in 1901 and ended in 2008. Called the Stock Matrix is provides a useful measure of the compound annual returns the market over any time period. For example, from 1997 through 2008 an individual taxpayer's compound annual return would have been minus two percent. The compound annual return starting in 1987 through 2008 is two percent. I encourage you to take some time and review the chart at Crestmont, as Ed Esterling does a great job in the analysis. You would have done better in a bank savings account.

It is interesting to see on the Stock Matrix chart that the best an investor could do by exiting in 2008 was to have invested in 1982. This would have generated a four percent compound annual return. The returns generated by exiting in 2008 and entering in 1998 through 2008 are all negative. Not very surprising. Hardly a good sign for the buy and hold crowd.

The proponents of buy and hold told us to expect eight, 10, and even 12 to 15 percent returns on our money, depending which financial “sales person” was quoted. I suspect and hope that most of these sales people are no longer employed espousing their untruths.

Timing Your Entry and Exit

What if you held a twenty-year position that began in 1982 and you had been able to exit your long positions in 2001, a year after the beginning of the bear market of 2000. Again, looking at the Stock Matrix from Crestmont Research, your return would have been a compound average of 7 percent. At least, that is a better return and beats holding your cash in a low interest bank account.

The bear market of 2000 ended in 2002, as the market rose from there to the end of 2007. Again, what if you had been fully invested in the S&P 500 from 2003, after the last bull market began, and you were able to close out at the end of 2007, when the latest bear market began. In that case, your compounded return would have been 7 percent. Another nice return for holding the S&P 500.

Of course, hindsight is a wonderful thing. It is easy to look back and do this kind of what if's and show how an investor could do well. On the other hand, by just following the buy and sell signs on the monthly chart of the S&P 500 below, an investor could have received very similar returns by just owning one of the S&P ETFs.

Since we are in a severe bear market, a time will come when it will be good to be long based on the monthly chart. Looking at the chart above, that time is still a number of months away.

The Bottom Line

The point of this article is that you can increase your returns by following well-founded indicators to help you time your buys and sells. Of course, you should not expect to be perfect in the timing of your buy and sells. However, using the right indicators can go a long way to improving the odds in your favor. After all the reason we invest is to provide a secure financial future for our family and ourselves. We should employ every tool that works to assist us in that goal.

By Hans Wagner
tradingonlinemarkets.com

My Name is Hans Wagner and as a long time investor, I was fortunate to retire at 55. I believe you can employ simple investment principles to find and evaluate companies before committing one's hard earned money. Recently, after my children and their friends graduated from college, I found my self helping them to learn about the stock market and investing in stocks. As a result I created a website that provides a growing set of information on many investing topics along with sample portfolios that consistently beat the market at http://www.tradingonlinemarkets.com/

Copyright © 2009 Hans Wagner

Hans Wagner Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules