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U.S. Dollar Imminent Collapse.. Again? - Update 5

Currencies / US Dollar Mar 24, 2009 - 12:13 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Currencies Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe fall in the U.S. Dollar in the wake of the "Quantitative Easing" headlines has brought the Dollar collapse proponents back out of hibernation. However the actual dollar trend has shown little if any deviation from the road map of 20th Jan 09 as illustrated by the below original price chart which therefore at this point in time does not warrant an indepth update.


The USD continuous to target a move to USD 81, my own view is that there will be some overshoot to the downside to perhaps 79 in advance of the next leg higher. Again, I say at this point in time contrary to the dollar doom calls there is little evidence on the charts that the USD Bull Market has ended as the Dollar continues to consolidate during the first half of 2009 as originally envisaged, and therefore my expectations remain for the Dollar to bounce off of the low in the region of USD 79-80. So Dollar Collapse Hunters BEWARE!

More analysis on the USD

1. March 2008 - Dollar Bear Market Bottom called, initial target of 80. ( DELEVERAGING- Gold and Commodities Teetering on the Brink of a Bear Market?)

2. August 2008 - Dollar Base building complete - breakout targeting USD 80 ( The US Dollar Bull Market )

3. October 2008 - Expecting USD to correct after rallying to between 87and 90, targeting support at 80, to be followed by a resumption of the up trend targeting USD 92. ( U.S. Dollar Bull Market Update )

4. January 2009 - USD Sideways consolidation with an upward bias for the first half of 2009 (US Dollar Bull Market 2009 Update 4)

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By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 250 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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Comments

Max B.
26 May 09, 20:37

Hello sir,

Is your wave count still intact ? do you still see the USD going to 93 soon ?


Nadeem_Walayat
26 May 09, 22:42
US Dollar

The forecast of Jan 2009 has proved pretty accurate even in so far as the downtrend into late may as the above graph implies (E).

Yes an update is now overdue as is one for gold, but I need to get to grips with the big picture which suggestive of a strong economic rebound for the UK.


jas Singh
10 Jul 09, 09:27
Conflicting Analysis

Hi Nadeem, your USD analysis has so far been very accurate in picking high's and lows.

Do you still see the CD wave playing out as shown above?


Nadeem_Walayat
11 Jul 09, 08:50
USD update

I need to do an indepth update on the USD, existing analysis is now 6 months old as it is not something I actively trade.


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